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Iran-Israel Shadow War Could Explode into Real Thing

  By Henry Srebrnik, [Halifax, NS] Chronicle Herald

Iran has always insisted that its nuclear program is peaceful, but Israel views a nuclear-threshold Iran as an unacceptable threat, because Tehran is openly committed to the destruction of the Jewish state.

So, is Israel now taking matters into its own hands? Neither side has openly nor formally declared war. Still, it is important, if we are to have a clear picture of the hostile strategic relationship between Israel and Iran, that we recognize the situation for what it is, in effect a de facto if not a declared war.

On May 16, Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz declared that Israel would “continue to act against any enemy” that threatens Israel’s security and would “prevent the transfer of advanced capabilities from Iran that endanger the citizens of Israel and harm the stability of the entire region.”

Gantz on June 20 also reported that Israel has joined a new Middle Eastern military partnership composed of, among other nations, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and the United States, it is designed to fend off attacks from Iran

Both Iran and Israel are deploying attack drones. The two countries are launching cyber attacks at one another. They appear to be actively recruiting intelligence sources on one another’s territory.

Both use third countries for launching operations: Iran in Syria, Lebanon and occasionally Iraq; Israel reportedly operates from Iraqi Kurdistan and Azerbaijan.

Israeli Navy vessels intercept Iranian arms shipments at sea, and Iran retaliates against Israel-flagged vessels in or near the Persian Gulf.

Israel is reportedly launching intelligence, assassination, and sabotage operations from secret bases on Iranian soil. Recently, there have been several suspected Israeli attacks inside Iran. Several quadcopter drones smashed into a suspected Iranian nuclear research and drone facility at Parchin, killing one engineer. In February, several drones hit an unmanned aerial vehicle base in the west of the country at Kermanshah.

On May 22, Colonel Sayyad Khodaei, a senior official of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, was assassinated in broad daylight in Tehran. As one Israeli commentator wrote, “Israel’s counter-terrorism campaign has spread from hitting Iranian facilities in Syria into Iran itself.”

A day later, Iran officially blamed Israel for the targeted killing. “We will make the enemy regret this and none of the enemy’s evil actions will go unanswered,” declared the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), General Hossein Salami. Majid Mirahmadi, a member of Iran’s National Security Council, called the killing “definitely the work of Israel” and promised vengeance.

Khodae was a key participant in Iran’s ongoing project to upgrade Lebanon-based Hezbollah’s vast arsenal of rockets into precision missiles capable of striking sensitive Israeli targets.

In November of 2020 Israel assassinated a very senior Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, using a remotely controlled machine gun. Israel reportedly mounted the gun on a pickup truck by the side of the road and, when Fakhrizadeh’s car approached, had a distant operator fire the gun using a satellite link.

All these operations reflect Israel’s development of extraordinary intelligence and operational capabilities on the ground in Iran. Here there is no symmetry: Iran has thus far proven unable to reciprocate in Israel, though not for lack of trying.

Israel’s General Security Service (Shin Bet) recently rounded up a ring of Israelis of Iranian origin who were recruited by Iranian Intelligence to spy on Israel. Iranian drones headed for Israel have recently been intercepted, in one case by American forces in Iraq.

In April Israeli agents in Tehran reportedly abducted Mansour Rasouli, assigned by the Quds Force, one of five branches of Iran’s IRGC, to kill Israelis in Ankara and Istanbul. Israelis have been warned by the government not to travel to Turkey because they are liable to be targets of Iranian assassination plots. Numerous Israelis on June 17 heeded calls to shelter in their hotel rooms in Istanbul.

Clearly, on nuclear issues, Israel wants to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. Whether this can be accomplished by means of a renewed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal with Iran negotiated by the United States and others in 2015 but later abrogated by President Donald Trump, remains uncertain.

So mounting pinpoint attacks on nuclear facilities inside Iran, and making potential preparations for a large-scale military attack, has become a matter of intense debate in Israel. But striking Iran’s nuclear facilities would be only the beginning, not the end, of a hot war between Israel and Iran. This might become the second major war of 2022.



This post first appeared on I Told You So, please read the originial post: here

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