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Election 2016 Update 10-20

Election 2016 Update 10-20

State of the Election 2016

Trump Meteor Forecast

The Trump Meteor has a 17% of striking the Earth and destroying civilization as we know it.

There was a Debate Last Night

After watching the final (thank God) debate, the two candidates discussed the Supreme Court, ISIS, the economy.... Oh and something about how Trump will refuse to concede the election, Instead, he promised to buy several blocks in Manhattan and form his own country, Trumpmania. He will, then, raise an army of orange uniformed Trumpmanians, confident he can hold a long siege with a large stockpile of Trump steaks and Trump water.

OK, maybe not that crazy, but close. For the first time in Modern History is a major candidate deliberately left doubt if he would respect the results of our democracy. The exact quote was:
"I will look at it at the time. I'm not looking at anything now. I'll look at it at the time."
But just as historic, this is the first time in Modern History we felt the need to ask. For a while, it looked like that would be all we talked about. As for me, I've already gone into this concern with great detail. In fact it's #2 in my 10 reasons no one should vote for him (not to mention 7, 8 and 10). So, let me get off my "high horse" and talk "horse race". (I really milked that metaphor. Didn't I).

Yes, for me this is disqualifying, but is it for most voters? Part of being in a democracy is defending acts we hate. We have to defend hate and racist speech because we believe in "free speech". We live with evil men escaping justice because we believe "innocent until proven guilty". But, none of us feel good about it.

For many voters, they might be willing to sacrifice a principle of democracy if the see a greater need for Trump, and if you are a Trump voter, you've already made such compromises. The question is did he, in this debate, reinforce those "greater needs". Yes, he did.

His answers on the Supreme Court reminded the Hopeys why they've been putting up with him. So, don't be surprise if he gets a small bump. (My feel is about 1% to 2%, but I haven't crunched any numbers yet.)

Trump's problem is that the news media cares about those democratic principles a lot, even more conservative ones like Fox News. That means they will spend time on this, and that's time taken away from what he did well. At most for a day or two. My googles and headline scans are already talking about other news.

However, Trump did nothing to bring the new voters that he needs. He only brought back some who were previously willing to vote for him, and that's just until they realize he can't win. The point of worry is, as I pointed out, he can narrow the gap to where other factors push him to a 50% chance of winning.

Unless, of course, he screws it up. If history is a guide, the good bet is that he will screw it up.

Something to Feel Good About

Senator Marco Rubio made a speech, yesterday, that earned my applause.

This is the kind of political courage and forethought that needs to be pointed out and remembered. Thank you, Senator Rubio. Moments like these make me proud of my country.

This post first appeared on The Gadfly Scholar, please read the originial post: here

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Election 2016 Update 10-20


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