Does the Republican Establishment Bet on Growing the Tent or Energizing the Base?
In the wake of Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential loss, the Republican National Committee (RNC) conducted a post-mortem on the Election and on the party itself. One of the report’s main conclusions was that Republicans must do a better job of reaching out to minority groups, especially Latinos. They cite, for example, that George W. Bush captured 44% of the Latino vote in 2004, while Mitt Romney captured just 27% in 2012. The report points out that America is changing demographically and those changes tilt the presidential election playing field in the Democratic Party’s direction, and if Republicans want to remain competitive they will have to “engage” minorities and show them “sincerity.”
But there are some Republicans who disagree with that strategy. While they’re certainly not against making the tent bigger, they feel the party’s main priority should be energizing the base. Ted Cruz, for example, is fond of pointing out that whenever Republicans nominate moderates they lose (see Bob Dole, John McCain and Mitt Romney), and whenever they nominate true conservatives they win (see Richard Nixon and Ronald Regan). The thinking goes, true conservatives drive Republicans out to the polls and to election victories.
It’s a choice that can be summarized in this way: turnout vs. reachout. Should the party focus on energizing the base in an effort to get it to turn out in big numbers and vote on Election Day? Or should it concern itself more with reaching out to non-traditional sources of support in an effort to broaden the party’s appeal?
Donald Trump declared his candidacy for president about 3 months ago. He has quickly become a darling of the Republican base. In the beginning, most political watchers dismissed his campaign as a passing fad, a summer fling that would come to an end just as soon as voters returned from summer vacation and really started paying attention to the race.
But voters’ feelings toward Trump seem to be holding steady (and that’s why, as I wrote last week, it may be time to stop dismissing his campaign). But a question I’ve been concerned with ever since Mr. Trump burst on the scene is, how does the Republican Establishment truly feel about him? Do they, as Reince Priebus, Chairman of RNC says, really believe that a Trump candidacy is “quite good” for the party? Or do they believe that someone who is a “base candidate” ruins their chances with minority groups and likely helps to hand the election over to Democrats? We may be starting to get some clues about their true feelings.
The first question asked at the Republican debate a few weeks ago was whether there were any candidates who were unwilling to pledge their support to the eventual Republican nominee and not run as an independent. Trump, during the weeks preceding the debate, routinely said he would not rule out a third-party bid if he were not the Republican nominee. He was, predictably, the only one to raise his hand. Then came a question about Trump’s questionable treatment of women over the years from moderator Megyn Kelly.
Trump and Fox News got into a now-famous dust-up over the questions directed at him during the debate. Trump felt that he was being targeted and that the questions came directly from the top, Fox News management. He was probably right. It’s unreasonable to believe that the moderators, with all that was at stake, would be freelancing in that situation. Also, last week we learned that two states, Virginia and North Carolina, were contemplating new requirements for candidates wishing to appear on their primary ballots: that they pledge not to run as third-party candidates in the general election. These moves are largely understood to be targeting Donald Trump.
Then last week Fox News and Donald Trump once again got into a bit of a row when Donald Trump tweeted up a firestorm of criticism of Megyn Kelly, prompting Fox News to issue a lengthy statement in her defense and asking Trump for an apology. Megyn Kelly, prior to Trump’s tirade, tweeted out what appeared to be veiled criticisms of Donald Trump’s immigration proposals. Even the most causal followers of Mr. Trump’s know that he is not one to shy away from a fight. Were those tweets meant to goad Trump into another battle?
The question I pose above about how the Republican Establishment Feels about Donald Trump is worth considering because it reveals a much more interesting dynamic: how the Republican establishment feels about the Republican base. Do they really commiserate with conservative anger or are they just looking to leverage that anger into election victories? Do they really believe in the base’s power to deliver a campaign victory or do they believe that bigger-tent strategies are the only logical strategies going forward?
We won’t know which strategy, turnout or reachout, the majority of Republicans will favor in 2016 for quite some time. Probably not until after the election is over and another post-mortem is conducted. But it’s interesting to see which side the establishment is beginning to bet on. And right now, it looks like they’re beginning to bet reachout.
