FREE Pick: LA Tech +23 @Miss State to Cover
By: Peter Egan of WePick.com (Read More on WePick.com)
Bet LA Tech (+23) to Beat the Spread at Miss State
One thing I can absolutely guarantee about the game between Louisiana Tech and Mississippi State on November 03, 2018, is that the Bulldogs are as safe a bet as I’ve seen all year.
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs that is to say. Louisiana Tech has been an underrated football team all year. The thought of picking against them as a 23-point underdog to a one-dimensional football team whose offense has scored 7 or fewer points in three of it’s last five games is difficult to fathom.
Vegas has been artificially high on Mississippi State at times this season, most recently the weekend before last against LSU, when the line broke sharply toward MSU as kickoff approached. LSU easily beat the spread with a dominating 19-3 victory that could have been much worse had LSU not played for field goals knowing State was unable to score.
Louisiana Tech on the other hand has been very good all season long, with only losses to #3 (CFP), and #4 (AP) LSU — a game that was 24-21 in the third quarter before LSU’s depth started to overwhelm their neighbor from Ruston. Their only other loss was to a good UAB team. The LA Tech Bulldogs have a quality win against North Texas, and played LSU tougher than the Bulldogs from Starkville did.
The bottom line is I see the LTU offense scoring at least 3 times, likely for at least 17 points, more likely 20-24. J’Mar Smith isn’t a bad quarterback and that team has capable playmakers at WR. Mississippi State on the other hand has been completely and totally unable to pass the ball more often than not this season. While Bulldog QB Nick Fitzgerald did perform better against Texas A&M, Danny Etling also nearly threw for close to 400 yards against the Aggies in last season’s finale’ while averaging half that for the season going in.
I just don’t trust Mississippi State to score the 42 or so points I think they’ll need to cover a 23 point point spread against a Louisiana Tech team whose offensive strength is the passing game, which MSU’s legitimately stout defense thrives by taking away the run first. Well, they can’t take away what isn’t there to begin with, and LA Tech has managed to go 6-1 against everyone not named LSU without much of a running game to speak of. They scored 21 on LSU, which is similar to MSU’s defense in terms of talent, only LSU’s D matches up better against LTU than State’s does since the Tigers’ strength is in its secondary.
If you’re going to be betting on college football November 03, forget LSU-Bama. Take the easy money and bet Louisiana Tech +23. They may not score 23, but they’ll score enough to beat that irrationally large point spread. MSU’s offense isn’t very good (7 or fewer points in 3 or last 5 games), and LTU’s offense is capable of moving the ball and scoring some points against MSU’s dominant defense.
This post will be updated periodically as new odds are released, particularly the O/U (Over/Under, i.e. “point total”).
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