After 8pm Tonight, we are at a slight risk for severe thunderstorms.
There is a 40% chance that there will be a thunderstorm within 25 miles of here between 8pm and midnight, with a 10% chance of continuing storms until 4am.
There is a 2% chance of that these storms tonight contain a tornado within 25 miles of here.
There is a 15% chance for these storms to contain 60 MPH winds within 25 miles of here.
There is a 5% chance for these storms to contain hail larger than 1 inch within 25 miles of here.
DISCUSSION…A narrow corridor of increasing severe potential exists from far northern NJ into MA ahead of ongoing strong/severe convection further to the north/northwest. This corridor has experienced strong heating today, with temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 80s amid 65-70 F dewpoints, yielding MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg. Visible satellite shows a broad area of agitated CU, with stronger vertical development across parts of southern NY/northern NJ as well as near the MA/VT/NH border. Stronger ascent will remain north of the area, so it is unclear if any storms will develop ahead of the slowly east/northeastward moving bands of convection further to the northwest. However, a southeastward-advancing outflow boundary is noted from Delaware to Rensselaer Counties in southeast NY and may provide enough focus for additional development across/moving into the MCD area. Vertical shear does decrease with southward extent across New England, but effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kts is more than sufficient to maintain organized cells/clusters in a moderately unstable airmass. As such, a severe threat could spread south of WW 501 and WW 502 in the next couple of hours and a new watch may be needed.