- Honey Butter Chips is a category killer in the potato chips market in Korea.In less than two years, Honey Butter Chips has become have become the most sought after snack in Korea.
- Our valuation scenarios analysis suggests that based on the 9-10x EV/EBITDA multiples for Crown Confectionery, there is a 8% to 36% upside range over the next one year. However, if the company is able to aggressively export its Honey Butter Chips in overseas markets such as US and China, there is likely to be even further increase in earnings estimates and valuations multiples expansion.
- Honey Butter Chips was launched in August 2014 in Korea by Haitai-Calbee, a 50:50 JV between Haitai Confectionery and Calbee (this JV is a subsidiary of Haitai Confectionery). Crown Confectionery owns a 85.2% stake in Haitai Confectionary which is planning an IPO in 2016.
- We expect the potato chip market in Korea to increase from 210 billion won in 2014 to 280 billion won in 2015, and 320 billion won in 2016. We estimate Honey Butter Chips's share in the Korean potato chip market to increase from 27% in 2015 to 36% in 2016 (number one brand by estimated sales).
- No other snack product has been promoted in Korea by various social media as Honey Butter Chips. As a result of unprecedented word-of-mouth marketing through social network media, the company could reduce its own advertising and marketing expenses associated with Honey Butter Chips.
- How did I buy my latest bags of Honey Butter Chips? I must have checked at least five convenience stores and two hypermarkets nearby where I live in Seoul and they were all sold out of them as a result I had to drive to Traders (which is Emart Co's imitation version of COSTCO, and located about 20 minutes from my house by car) and they were also close to being sold out but I grabbed some!
This insight is part of Smartkarma. For more follow this link.