Week Ahead: what we’re watching
- USD: threats to the divergence trade? – Risk aversion can still challenge the Fed’s outlook. Solid US retail sales needed next week to limit any risk aversion-driven USD underperformance against JPY, EUR and CHF.
- GBP: enough pounding? – Improving UK data and the largely unchanged BoE outlook could offset Brexit fears to a degree and support GBP.
- AUD: remain cautious – AUD latest underperformance could continue next week in view of Australian and Chinese data releases.
- NOK & SEK: ahead of CPI – CPI data out of Sweden and Norway may matter less in the face of low oil prices and Riksbank’s FX intervention threat.
- XAU: Gold shines – Gold has been the best performing asset in our universe since the start of 2016 as risk aversion burnished its safe haven appeal.