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S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Feb 15, 2016

Review of Forecast for Feb 8, 2016

Everything unfolded as expected – bounced from a flush low early last week, weaknesses kicked in after Wednesday and limited upside cap by the forecasted range. The breadth analog model did an excellent job for the week.

Forecast Starting Feb 15, 2016

Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Feb 12, 2016:
  • Near equal chance for 2.5% or more swing in both directions
  • Extreme volatility warning
  • Exact turning point has to be identified with real-time breadth due to the high level of volatility

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Short Explanation About The Model

My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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This post first appeared on Stress-Free Trader (The Lawrence Chan Blog) | Dayt, please read the originial post: here

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S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Feb 15, 2016


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