Review of Forecast for Oct 17, 2016
Monday did not challenge Friday high, so no directional push towards previous week low. Instead, we got consolidation all week. The breadth analog model did nothing last week.
Forecast Starting Oct 24, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Oct 21, 2016:
- Upside capped to 1.5%
- A drop of 1.5% points to 2.5% or more downside likely
- Down trend intact with high risk of sudden reversal intraday in both directions
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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This post first appeared on Stress-Free Trader (The Lawrence Chan Blog) | Dayt, please read the originial post: here