On 31 Dec. 2019, there was 27 cases of pneumonia from an unknown cause that were reported from China. When the virus was identified a week later, the case count had risen to 41. Within 2 days after, the first death had occurred.
Since that time, the number of cases has been on an exponential curve, doubling every 36 to 48 hours. There has also been a significant increase in mortality with about a 9 day lag. The exponential rate of contagion is not limited to Wuhan but also to areas where multiple cases have been observed. Most of these locations are lagging about 2 weeks behing Wuhan. There is currently reported close to 20,000 cases worldwide and over 300 mortalities.
However, I have a very strong concern that these statistics may be very deceptive in both occurrence and mortality. Since Wuhan has been placed on quarantine since 31 Jan 2020, I have not seen any effort to find additional illness or mortalities outside of the hospitals. The hospitals in Wuhan were ill equiped to handle the inflow of cases. As a result, many people who came to the hospitals were not able to be diagnosed. In other cases, the people may not have sought help because their case was initially like a mild case of the flu.
The infected people may not have been aware of the seriousness of their infection until it was too late. It is quite possible to be mildly ill for a few days and then to wake up one morning, feeling like you had been hit in the chest with a bowling ball, unable to get out of bed. There may have been many who experienced this , died at home if there was no family member to call for help, and never reported.
So far, I have not seen any effort for door to door checks to verify that all is well with the people who have been stranded by the quarantine. The stores appear to be seeing little activity, o long lines of people looking for bottled water, food, or other supplies. Hospitals are the one place that appears to be overrun.
The real seriousness of the outbreak is in the fact, Wuhan is only one city of 11 million in a country of over 1.4 billion. They have built 2 new hospitals totaling 2500 beds strictly for the Wuhan virus. If this was sufficient, they will need over 1000 of these new hospitals in the next few weeks. This is a logistics nightmare that will likely not be overcome.
The real concern is that in the last 2 weeks, the seeds of this outbreak have spread worldwide, discounting any possibility that it could be contained to China or even to its Asian neighbors. As there are still no medications and no vaccines, it is really left up to the individuals to insure their own survival. Those who want to avoid this illness as long as possible with the hope of surviving will need to take action on their own.
And for more information, see the previously posted articles in this series:
Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak Beware the hidden mortality statistics
Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak Surpasses SARS
Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak How far will it spread and how bad?
Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak
Since that time, the number of cases has been on an exponential curve, doubling every 36 to 48 hours. There has also been a significant increase in mortality with about a 9 day lag. The exponential rate of contagion is not limited to Wuhan but also to areas where multiple cases have been observed. Most of these locations are lagging about 2 weeks behing Wuhan. There is currently reported close to 20,000 cases worldwide and over 300 mortalities.
However, I have a very strong concern that these statistics may be very deceptive in both occurrence and mortality. Since Wuhan has been placed on quarantine since 31 Jan 2020, I have not seen any effort to find additional illness or mortalities outside of the hospitals. The hospitals in Wuhan were ill equiped to handle the inflow of cases. As a result, many people who came to the hospitals were not able to be diagnosed. In other cases, the people may not have sought help because their case was initially like a mild case of the flu.
The infected people may not have been aware of the seriousness of their infection until it was too late. It is quite possible to be mildly ill for a few days and then to wake up one morning, feeling like you had been hit in the chest with a bowling ball, unable to get out of bed. There may have been many who experienced this , died at home if there was no family member to call for help, and never reported.
So far, I have not seen any effort for door to door checks to verify that all is well with the people who have been stranded by the quarantine. The stores appear to be seeing little activity, o long lines of people looking for bottled water, food, or other supplies. Hospitals are the one place that appears to be overrun.
The real seriousness of the outbreak is in the fact, Wuhan is only one city of 11 million in a country of over 1.4 billion. They have built 2 new hospitals totaling 2500 beds strictly for the Wuhan virus. If this was sufficient, they will need over 1000 of these new hospitals in the next few weeks. This is a logistics nightmare that will likely not be overcome.
The real concern is that in the last 2 weeks, the seeds of this outbreak have spread worldwide, discounting any possibility that it could be contained to China or even to its Asian neighbors. As there are still no medications and no vaccines, it is really left up to the individuals to insure their own survival. Those who want to avoid this illness as long as possible with the hope of surviving will need to take action on their own.
Surviving Viral Illness
And for more information, see the previously posted articles in this series:
Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak Beware the hidden mortality statistics
Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak Surpasses SARS
Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak How far will it spread and how bad?
Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak
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