Crossrail will have boosted residential property prices by £35 billion by 2018.
Crossrail will have boosted residential property prices by £35 billion by the time the service is fully operational. Europe’s largest infrastructure project, the new railway line across London will open fully in 2018 – but the work is already having an impact upon property values.
The line will cut journey times into Central London by 15 minutes on average, opening up new parts of London to commuters, House-hunters and, at the same time, investors. With demand set to reach into areas that were previously not sought-after, new research from CBRE highlights just how big a boost this will have upon areas round London.
The firm’s report suggests that a 10 per cent reduction in commuting times can cause House Prices to increase by as much as 6 per cent. Indeed, since Crossrail received the go-ahead, prices around its 37 host stations have increased by 31 per cent over the wider market, exceeding CBRE’s original estimates.
Its new revised forecast predicts that property prices around those stations will increase by 3.3 per cent per annum – over and above wider house price growth – until the full effect of Crossrail has been realised.
Here is a full rundown of house price forecasts per station:
London house prices: Crossrail effect concentrates on the west
12th August 2016
Much has been made of the “Crossrail effect” on London house prices, but what impact is it actually having on property values?
The ambitious project, which began construction in 2009, spans from Reading and Heathrow in the west to Shenfield and Abbey Wood in the east. It is not set to be fully completed until 2019, but prices have already risen in hotspots along the line, with investors swarming to destinations such as Ilford to take advantage of the capital growth.
Now, new research from Nationwide examines what impact the line is having in more detail, suggesting that its main beneficiaries so far have been in the west of the capital. On the west side of the route, rates of house price growth have been “well above the rates recorded” in the region as a whole and the UK average since the announcement of the project.
The two stand out performers over the last two years have been Slough and Reading, with house prices rising by 39 per cent and 33 per cent respectively since April 2014, compared with the regional average of 22 per cent.
This strong rate of house price growth has been driven by robust demand for properties and a rise in transactions. Following the announcement, the number of homes sold in the three months to August 2014 was up 24 per cent year-on-year in Wokingham, versus an average increase of 16 per cent in the region as a whole in the same period.
The eastern branches of the line do not extend as far out of Greater London as the western section, only reaching Brentwood and Shenfield outside of the capital, which Nationwide attributes to the more muted Crossrail effect recorded on that side of the capital.
House prices in the borough of Brentwood (which also includes Shenfield), though, have increased by 43 per cent since the May 2010 government pledge of completion, compared with a regional average (in the East of England) of 36 per cent.
Over the last two years, Brentwood house prices have risen broadly in line with the regional average (24 per cent versus 23 per cent). The lower rate of price growth, compared with western areas, may be due to the area already having good transport links to both The City and the Docklands (via Stratford) through Greater Anglia services and also the Shenfield “metro” now operated by TfL Rail.
Andrew Harvey, Senior Economic Analyst at Nationwide, comments: “Whether it be due to Sir John Betjeman’s poem Slough or the cult TV show, The Office, Slough has been much maligned for many years. However, our research into the effect of the new Elizabeth Line on house prices in the town suggests that this may be unfair and that Slough, in fact, may be a more desirable place to live than people might imagine.
“Our analysis suggests that the Crossrail project has provided a significant uplift to prices on the western section of the line to Berkshire. Slough, in particular, has seen house prices rise by 39 per cent since April 2014 – nearly double the average rate of growth seen across the South East as a whole. Average house prices in the town have historically been around 15 per cent to 20 per cent lower than the regional average, but the growth seen since 2014 means that prices are now just around six per cent lower than the South East average.”
“The new Elizabeth Line is likely to make Slough an attractive proposition for London workers who prefer not to live in the capital as journey times will be around 15 minutes faster into Central London and 20 minutes faster to the Docklands.”
“It will be interesting to see if the house price trends seen in both Slough and the wider South East region continue over the next few years as the full service is introduced,” he adds.
Crossrail to boost house prices by up to 16pc
24th March 2016
House prices in Crossrail locations are predicted to accelerate up to 16 per cent faster than those of average homes in Greater London in the coming years.
Much has been made of the “Crossrail effect” upon London’s real estate, but as the mammoth railway project gets nearer to completion, the impact has already been noted, as property values rise, developments spring up in places such as Canary Wharf and, on TheMoveChannel.com, investor demand has spiked in locations such as Ilford.
Now, JLL has updated its own forecast for property values in the areas near stations, predicting average price growth of 7 per cent.
Less than three years until the first Crossrail trains run through the new tunnels of the Central Section of Crossrail, and less than four years until the full Crossrail service becomes operational, JLL predicts that activity will “step up another gear” in the run up to the line’s opening.
“Crossrail continues to drive value growth right across its length. In the current market, what is becoming clear is the additional benefit it brings to some of the lower value locations along the route,” comments Neil Chegwidden, Residential Research Director at JLL. “It is supporting regeneration through improved accessibility and, as a result, offers a longer-term capital growth potential that may be harder to identify in central zones.”
“Our updated research shows that some Crossrail locations are expected to see house price growth of 16 per cent above the Greater London average by the end of 2020. On average, residential prices around Crossrail stations are forecast to see 7 per cent greater uplift compared to non-Crossrail stations.”
Woolwich, West Drayton, Whitechapel and Ealing Broadway are the most advantageous locations to develop apartments for sale, according to JLL, while Woolwich is forecast to experience the highest house price growth along the Crossrail route, with values expected to rise by 39 per cent. Woolwich is far from unique, though: West Drayton, Whitechapel, Slough, Abbey Wood and Iver are also on track to see prices climb by more than 33 per cent over the next five years.
Looking at the rental market, Chegwidden continues: “Crossrail is likely to be the catalyst for Build to Rent apartment schemes; we predict that the most beneficial stations around which to develop product for rent are Whitechapel, Woolwich, Ealing Broadway, Acton, Slough and West Drayton, with rental growth over the next five years forecast to be strongest in Whitechapel, Woolwich, Ealing Broadway, West Ealing, Acton and Hanwell.”
Untapped potential is also highlighted in Iver, Langley, Slough, Ilford, Forest Gate, Abbey Wood, and Southall.