You Say Election. I Say Electoral College

Less than 3 months until the 2020 election, and we all have the same question. Will we be able to listen to news without an anxiety attack? As much as I and others feared of a President Trump, a second term would be worse. Unfortunately, our votes won’t decide. As always, it will the Electoral College.

So, let’s not be caught off guard and led by National Polls to overconfidence. Instead, let’s start by looking at the election by states. Let’s begin with this.

President Trump will not win the popular vote.

We talk a lot about how there is this unmovable block of about 37% to 40%, but what goes undiscussed is that those who disapprove are also unmovable, 50% to 56%. So, to win a majority, he would have to convince those who don’t like him to vote for him.

This also reflects in the Biden vs Trump. Biden has been ahead by 3% to 10% often close to 50%. So even to achieve a plurality, Trump has to “beat the polls”. Granted he did that in 2016, but not by 3%.

So, what Trump is going to do is become a more conventional politician trying to broaden his appeal and reach out to those that disagree with him……… Yeah, I couldn’t stop laughing either. Instead, he’s going to try to suppress the vote and win with the Electoral College like in 2016. When looking at any national poll, you should use this rule. If the democrat is ahead by 5%, the democrat is winning. If it’s 3%, it’s a tie. If it’s a tie, the democrat is losing. Note that this rule does not apply to state polls because the rule is a result of, you should have guessed, the Electoral College.

Biden states won’t flip.

I've been watching Trump’s approval and Biden vs Trump polls broken by states since February. The states Hillary won have not improved for Trump while states that voted for him have worsen. So, it will come down to how many states Biden takes away from Trump. Not the other way around. In 2016, the Trump’s Electoral Vote total was 305 which means Biden needs to gain 36. (For this blog, I going to assume democrats keep the House.) Two states can be enough to win. If they are the right states.

Expect polls to move towards Trump as we near the election.

There are many reasons for this, but candidates’ polls usually move closer to each other as the election nears. Some but not all of the reasons are: the losing candidate is more aggressive to get the polls back, voters realize that what they say to pollsters are a fantasy but votes are real, the losing candidate starts being compared to the other candidate instead of an ideal in our heads, etc.

If you’ve been watching the polls you may be seeing some tightening now though we should wait about a week before saying that.

Right now, Biden has been leading Trump by 7% to 8% which is ridiculous. And if it weren’t this close, I would be telling you to ignore it. But we live in ridiculous times with a pandemic and economic crisis that is likely to be present on election day. Even still, I would prepare myself for the lead to reduce by as much as 5% making it 2% to 3%. Enough to win, but only if it’s in the right states. Biden does not need more votes in California, and Trump does not need more votes in Alabama.

Now let’s count Electoral Votes.

Remember, Biden needs to flip 36.

Here are the states by order of Electoral Votes that I would say Biden could win:

When ordered by polls, it’s:

So now some details. High is the highest point I can find in the polls and Low is the lowest. Both are considered to compensate for narrowing. This is why Pennsylvania is before Wisconsin and Ohio is before Arizona. I’m also preparing for “legal” vote suppression (fewer voting booth, restriction to absentee voting, et.), so I’ve noted the party of the Governor and Secretary of State. Therefore, North Carolina is before Ohio. As I used for national polling, I used the FiveThirtyEight site.

Of note, Texas and Georgia are not on this list. Right now, they are close to tied, but as I said before, I would expect a move to Trump’s favor as we get closer to the election. I’m not saying Biden could not win those states. I’m saying if he did, he would already have enough to win.

From this you see the top two states are Michigan and Pennsylvania for 36 votes, and that scores the win. Not that the Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin tend to vote as a group further promoting this scenario. However, I know what you are thinking. These states were thought of as easy wins in 2016. Something was going on there that we didn’t see until it was too late. So, there is reason for caution. Let me see if this helps. Luck. We underestimate how much Trump may have been just lucky. Trump won Pennsylvania by only 46,000 votes. To put that in perspective, 50,000 votes in Pennsylvania were write-ins. If those that had voted for Mikey Mouse in 2016 switched for Biden, he can win Pennsylvania and so the country.

So, what about Florida? Though it’s 4^th in the polls, it has the most votes. However, unless Pennsylvania is lost, Florida won’t decide the election.

One final point. You may take to mean your vote doesn’t matter unless you live in a state on this list. No. No. No. First, I’ve already argued why you should vote, no matter what, vote. Secondly, that kind of thinking loses elections. Third, and most important, Trump and Biden are not the only names on the ballot. There will be senators, congressmen, and local offices that are just as, if not more, important than the Presidency.