OCTOBER

Where US–Canada relations were concerned, as well as Trump’s trade strategy, NAFTA was the leading event opening the month of October.

The US–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA)

On Monday, October 1^st, came the striking news that at the last minute the US and Canada signed a new agreement which, together with Mexico, would replace NAFTA.

While Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau declared that it was “a good deal for Canada,” he certainly sounded little like a winner, looking sombre, sounding toned down, the impression was of one who had just been humiliated. Canadian dairy farmers openly disagreed with Trudeau, and condemned the deal. Also not a “good deal” for Canadians were the increased healthcare costs that would result from higher drug prices, thanks to new provisions of the deal. The Canadian strategy was a conservative one to begin with—it was mainly aimed at preserving the status quo. As a result, part of the status quo was preserved, but the Canadian government had to concede other parts, which means a net loss for Canada. Quebec’s leading politicians denounced the deal as a disgrace and harmful to Quebec. In particular, the dairy industry in Quebec was expected to suffer. The government of Ontario also announced it would exert pressure on the federal government to compensate Ontario for the industries thrown “under the bus” in the new agreement. That Trudeau’s government was already speaking about compensation, on the first day, indicated it was by definition a negative deal. Editorials that tried to put a happy face on the deal, grudgingly admitted it was not the “win-win-win deal” that had been promised for 13 months. Driven by fear of new US tariffs, that were apparently “averted,” it was realized that Canada caved in significantly. It would now be up to provincial legislatures to ratify the trade deal, and with opposition coming from the two giants—Ontario and Quebec—things looked murky. In the US, there would be no congressional vote on the USMCA until the new year. Also, Canadian opinions of the US fell to a record low, unsurprisingly.

Donald Trump, on the other hand, sounded victorious as he hailed the outcome. He now called Trudeau a “good person” who was doing a “good job”—when just a few days earlier he claimed that he refused to meet with Trudeau. Much of what Trump wanted, Trump got. There were also some US concessions, especially on trade dispute resolutions (US courts would not have the first and last say on matters) and on protecting Canadian cultural industries. On the other hand, Canadian copyright law would now match US law which is exceedingly restrictive in what it allows to enter the public domain and when. Thus only the US side won anything new from the deal, which appeared a net loss for Canada. The deal also allows the US (and Mexico) to review any Canadian free trade deal with a “non-market economy” (i.e., China)—which could terminate Canada’s membership in the USMCA. This is interpreted as a way for the US to lock Canada and Mexico into the US orbit. In one particular case (infant formula), the USMCA appeared to block Canada from increasing exports to China.

Tariffs, and counter-tariffs, on steel and aluminum products remained in place. Canadian media such as the state-owned CBC, had little to share in the way of concrete details about the agreement.

In some respects, the deal contained advances as it annulled the infamous investor-state dispute settlement chapter that permitted corporations to sue governments in special tribunals. Auto workers would also benefit from higher wages, and more business would be generated in North America by increasing the North American content of automobiles manufactured by the three nations. In other, more complicated respects, it was a win for Canadian wine producers, seeking to market their products in Canada itself. Also, while Canadians were lectured at about the virtues of free trade, online shoppers experienced little of it directly—now, they will no longer pay duties on their online purchases, up to $150. Fortunately, the deal is not permanent: it is open to review in six years’ time, and can expire in 16 years. In addition, any of the members can walk away from the USMCA at any time, for any reason, with just six months’ notice.

Further on in October, Canada announced new steel tariffs, directed against countries seeking to dump steel in Canada for re-export to the US. This was apparently done to placate the US which accused Canada of serving as a backdoor to the US market. Nevertheless, tariffs between the US and Canada remained intact, despite the USMCA, and seemed likely to continue. The Canadian government also promised to pay refunds to Canadian corporations that paid tariffs on imported steel or aluminum products from the US. Separately, Canadian dairy farmers blasted Trump for massively distorting the facts about US–Canada dairy trade, and said the problem for the US was rooted in its overproduction of milk which caused it to become desperate to find foreign markets to dump its products, while also charging exorbitant tariffs on Canadian dairy products. The US has a massive $600 million surplus in its dairy trade with Canada (the number is closer to $650 million), despite Trump’s cries of injury.

Was China Really Losing the Trade War?

Defying predictions that China would feel a big bite from the US trade war, China instead expanded its exports to the US by more than 13% over a year earlier (before the trade war). September, which saw a Chinese surplus of $34.1 billion, “marked the second straight record Chinese monthly trade surplus with the United States after August’s $31 billion”. Meanwhile, China’s imports from the US slowed down. China’s currency also fell in value, making its exports much more competitive, and it experienced accelerated growth in its exports overall. Just after these facts were reported, Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, gave a hair-raising interview in which he listed a range of US responses that bordered on war with China. The latter possibility seemed to become more real as it was reported that just a month before, a Chinese and US warship came within 45 yards of each other in a near collision.

Seemingly in response to US actions, China sold a mere $3 billion in sovereign dollar bonds, “only the third such move by Beijing in the last 14 years, and the first involving bonds with a 30-year maturity”. Some news media tried to spin this as a “warning shot,” a kind of preview of greater actions China might take—and though China may be the single largest owner of US debt, it is quite far from owning a majority of US debt by itself. In actuality, it is unlikely that this was a sign of things to come, and even if China tried to unload all of its holdings of US securities, it’s not clear how much of a negative effect that would have on the US, or China itself.

On the other hand, offering support for Trump’s claims to be having an impact on China, other reports painted a different picture of China by looking at different numbers—such as the biggest drop in China’s economic growth since the global financial crisis. Even China’s growth in exports was explained as a momentary response, where firms were front-loading their shipments in advance of stronger US tariffs. It would be in the new year when we might see the actual impact of US tariffs on China’s rate of exports.

Meanwhile there were reports suggesting that countries like Russia, China, and members of the European Union, were working to create an alternative world reserve currency, that would seriously challenge US financial hegemony.

On the political and military sides, the US’ Cold War with China seemed to be entering a new and more dangerous phase. The US accused China of interfering in US elections, ramping up the new Cold War with China. As for continuing US wars, such as the US in Afghanistan, retired Army Colonel Larry Wilkerson warned of the dangers of such perpetual wars. He asked if the US military was really in Afghanistan just to apply pressure on China, and if so, then level with American citizens and especially those who serve in battle.

The New Cold War with Russia

The Russian government claimed that the US side repeatedly rejected a Russian offer of a pact of mutual non-interference in the internal affairs of either country.

In addition to working on the creation of an alternative world reserve currency (see above), Russia also announced that it had liquidated nearly all of its holdings of US debt, and invested the money in gold instead. Russia thus announced that it was making efforts to “de-dollarize” its economy, as a matter of national security. Russia was also working on an agreement to de-dollarize trade with China.

President Trump announced that the US would unilaterally withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Trump complained that Russia was in breach of the treaty, which Russia denied, and he then complained that China was not part of the treaty. In fact, Trump made any revival of the agreement contingent upon China becoming a signatory, which lent weight to interpretations that Trump’s move was really meant to target China, since it had developed a range of intermediate nuclear-capable weapons that were not subject to any treaty. This move of course sent relations with Russia into another, more dangerous downward spiral, with Russia promising an “immediate and mirror-like” response. Russia promised to target all European nations hosting any US intermediate range missiles. Russia also accused the US of violating the INF treaty, and explained how. Former Trump adviser, Carter Page, warned that the end of the INF should be something that scares Americans. The clock had seemingly been turned back to the early 1980s, with the threat of a new arms race as part of this new Cold War. It did not help that Trump himself boasted to the media that the US had a lot of money and was willing to launch a new arms race.

Turkey–Saudi Arabia–US: A Realignment?

Strange events unfolded in October involving what had become an increasingly bellicose relationship between the US and Turkey (with tariffs and sanctions, and counter-tariffs and counter-sanctions) and what had been a continued long-standing alliance between the US and Saudi Arabia’s ruling monarchy. The turning point appeared to be the torture and dismemberment of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi resident in the US as an exile, who wrote for The Washington Post and was fairly critical of the Saudi rulers—but was not the liberal democrat that some made him out to be. Saudi “explanations” changed dramatically and rapidly, from total denial and asserting that Khashoggi had left the consulate, to saying that Khashoggi got into a fist fight with consular staff and was overpowered and died accidentally, to then confirming that it was a deliberate murder (by supposedly “rogue” elements).

As was seen in the skirmish between Saudi Arabia and Canada, the Saudis—though claiming to be “reformist”—would at first not accept even a hint of criticism, and lashed out when they felt they had the upper hand, and probably felt empowered by Trump’s glowing praise for the Saudi monarchy. It seems that now they had gone too far—while Saudi forces were slaughtering thousands of civilians in Yemen, and had abducted and beaten the Prime Minister of Lebanon forcing him to resign, it took the murder of just one US resident to galvanize US legislators into demanding the severest possible punishment, short of direct military confrontation with Saudi Arabia. Some critiqued the “moralistic BS” of the foreign policy establishment and the media, that had long glanced past the charnel house which Yemen had become under the Saudis, and fixated on one man instead (who happened to be a colleague).

US weapons manufacturers were alarmed by the outcry, and tried to pressure Trump not to halt what was reported as over $100 billion in US arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Trump himself seemed little interested in the option of halting arms sales, claiming this would hurt the US more than the Saudis, and benefit Russia and China.

While initially reluctant to accept that Saudi Arabia was guilty of any wrongdoing, and willing to buy Saudi denials, Trump soon admitted that he thought Khashoggi had indeed been killed, as was later confirmed by the Saudis themselves. Trump then found the Saudi explanation for the killing, once the Saudis admitted to it, to be “inadequate”. Turkey provided evidence that Khashoggi had been detained in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, never left, and was tortured and murdered, and claimed to have video evidence of a Saudi hit squad that had arrived in Turkey. The Saudis initially denied the claims but could not prove that Khashoggi ever left the consulate—they claimed he left, but his fiancé, waiting outside, never saw him leave. More information came out that showed the Saudis tried to cover up the murder, by having a body double in Khashoggi’s clothes leave the consulate through the back entrance, and disposing of the body in a forest. Another account detailed how the Saudi who ran social media for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmanfor, Saud al-Qahtani, supervised the killing of Khashoggi live via Skype, giving orders for the brutal acts that were committed.

At the same time as these events unfolded, Turkey decided to release US evangelist Andrew Brunson, which had itself become a “last straw” that had apparently broken US–Turkish relations. Brunson appeared next to Trump within a day. While it seemed likely that the US would now repair its ties with Turkey (in fact, that seemed to be part of the deal to release Brunson), it was the alliance with Saudi Arabia that was in extreme jeopardy.

Turkey appeared to be making the most of this event to embarrass both the US and its Saudi ally, and the relationship between them. Turkish authorities kept speaking of audio or other recorded evidence, without actually releasing it, and prolonging the suspense and the inevitable discussion even further. In addition, it was obvious that Turkey was spying on the diplomatic missions of close US allies, even while it is a NATO member itself.

Trump was obviously dragging his feet on taking any action—though he had instantly slammed Russia with sanctions, and expelled several dozen Russian diplomats, with far less evidence of a crime, not even committed against a US citizen or resident. However, when it came to Saudi Arabia, Trump was suddenly quite open to accepting denials at face value, reminding Americans that the person affected was a Saudi citizen. The Skripals were Russian citizens, and Sergei Skripal was a spy, but none of that mattered to Trump. Saudi Arabia was being held to a very different standard. In fact, despite Trump’s vague promises to somehow punish or penalize Saudi Arabia, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin met with the Crown Prince in Riyadh, at the opening of an investment conference that Mnuchin previously said he would no longer attend. Mnuchin had not even announced the Saudi stop as part of his Middle East tour.

For once, it seemed that the US (apart from Trump) might cease to operate with convenient double standards, and selective, opportunistic outrage, by applying similar measures to Saudi Arabia. The effort, however, was driven more by Senators than the reluctant White House. Turkey and Saudi Arabia are rivals in the Middle East, and Turkey was manoeuvring skilfully in driving a wedge between the Saudis and the US. The US is relying on Saudi Arabia as a bulwark against Iran, which is itself allied with Turkey. Any significant realignment of relations on this front would introduce a major change in US foreign policy. It therefore seemed unlikely that Trump would take any serious steps to punish the Saudis at this point. Indeed, none materialized in 2018.

Iran: The Costs of Trump’s Policy

As October opened, everyone noticed the surging price of oil. Prices were set to skyrocket as Saudi Arabia was unable to offset the drop in the world supply of oil, thanks to US sanctions on Iran, with the sanctions only set to become even more severe in November.

Iran scored a major legal victory against the US in early October, through a ruling by the International Court of Justice—which the US once again promptly dismissed, and derided, then moved to cancel a consular and economic relations treaty that the US has had with Iran since 1955. The ICJ demanded that the US lift sanctions which were affecting “humanitarian goods” and civil aviation. The ICJ considered that US sanctions were in fact a “danger to health and life” of Iranians. (The US also withdrew from the “Optional Protocol” of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, in order to counter a separate challenge, from the Palestinian government.)

Liberal Imperialists Lose their Champions: First, Nikki Haley, then Dina Powell

Long championed by Fox News, and earning the praise of liberal media like The New York Times, it was a refreshing change for Trump’s anti-interventionist supporters to see the sudden departure of Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the UN. Long a pro-war hawk, Haley was closely affiliated with the branch of liberal imperialists dubbed “neoconservatives”. Soon after the announcement, Fox News (with the sole exception of Tucker Carlson), rushed to push the name of Dina Powell to the forefront, one who was employed by Goldman Sachs, and had significant ties with Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation, and was likely to continue Haley’s counter-Trump parallel foreign policy. Powell apparently dropped out, or was dropped, as a frontrunner to replace Haley. Among Haley’s most notoriously belligerent statements, was her expression of certainty that Russia had “absolutely” meddled in the elections in Binomo—the only problem being that Binomo does not exist. Falling prey to prank callers, Haley revealed that the US’ top ambassador, to the UN no less, was not familiar with world geography and the names of the member states of the UN. This fact seemed to escape any significant commentary in the US media.

The Migrant Caravan

President Trump threatened to terminate US aid to Honduras if the Honduran government failed to stop a caravan of migrants leaving for the US. On the one hand, the demand was as illogical as it was illegal: the Honduran government cannot transform the country into a giant prison camp at the behest of the US, and prevent citizens from exercising their right to travel. It is up to the US to prevent entry; it is not up to Honduras to illegally arrest and indefinitely detain all citizens. On the other hand, seeing matters from a slightly different perspective more in line with Trump’s sentiments, if US aid does not actually do anything to better the lives of Honduras’ people, then it is hard to justify continuing it. However, one response to that position might be that the aid is either insufficient in amount, poorly managed or targeted, or all of these, in addition to arguments that explain that aid itself is ineffective as a method of poverty alleviation. (This last point could itself be used to advance the end-the-aid argument.)

Apart from this, it would seem that Guatemala and Mexico would be under increased pressure to serve as US buffer states, preventing or otherwise impeding entry to Hondurans, which would in turn work against Central American integration and create regional tensions. As Trump ordered the military to the southern border, the US also announced that it had reached a deal with Mexico designed to impede the caravan, which involved the UN High Commission for Refugees to process all refugee claims within Mexico itself. The Honduran organizer of the caravan was detained by Guatemalan authorities. While at one point it seemed that half of the migrants had turned home, the caravan later grew in size even as it stalled on the border between Guatemala and Mexico. However, as Mexican authorities felt overwhelmed by the numbers, and potential for violent confrontations, Mexico reversed course and began to allow the Central American migrants to travel to the US border, which Trump threatened to “shut down”.

Politically, there were dubious arguments that deserved further critique. Even the migrants would have needed to explain how it was that the US, under Trump, was so attractive to them rather than a neighbouring country. If Trump was really ruining the nation the way his opponents frequently claim, were the migrants not instead giving the US their vote of confidence? As for the Democrats in the US, in preparation for the mid-term elections consultants and think tanks aligned with the party advised candidates to say as little as possible about immigration. This is presumably because the Democrats’ ostensible pro-open borders approach to illegal immigration is not a winning proposition with most Americans, and particularly not with “swing voters” in key electoral “battleground” states.

“Social” Media are US Media: Waking Up to Contemporary Cultural Imperialism

Further events transpired in October that one might hope would awaken more people to the fact that they had voluntarily made themselves into artificial hostages of US social media companies, developing a relationship of forced dependency on entities that have now become quite brazen in practicing political censorship. What is being created in the US are “social” media bubbles, with a regulated uniformity in the range of authorized expressions and permissible perspectives.

By mid-October, Facebook went as far as purging around 800 pages and accounts, associated with elements of both the political right and left. The “authoritarian censorship” that US activists routinely complained about when it occurred overseas, had finally come home. Facebook targeted entities that had millions of followers, who will now have to use other means for distributing their content (not a difficult chore). In the end, all that Facebook really achieved was to cement the fact that liberalism is in practice very illiberal, intolerant, and anti-democratic, and in place of a multiplicity of perspectives that occur in reality, Facebook would rather offer users a virtual world of pretend hegemony.

Google also discussed its own censorship practices, in what it frankly acknowledges as censorship. Google has decided that free speech on the Internet is “no longer viable”. Google executives, in leaked internal discussions, also made it clear that they were guided by an anti-Trump, anti-populist political bias. Google has also developed a censored search engine for China, just to underline where it stands on free speech. The Google leak also attested to the fact that US social media such as Facebook and Twitter, plus Google, control the majority of online conversations.

In an apparent celebration of the kind of censorship that upholds the status quo and the dominance of discredited mainstream media, the CBC ran a story about a very green journalist working as a “fact checker” for Facebook, writing articles that “debunked” stories that did not meet the official standard of permissible truth. The article consisted of bland generalities and statements of the obvious, with little explored beyond the surface and few of the terms ever being defined, not to mention the most inane “tips” for “spotting fake news”—a clear sign of the kind of “journalistic quality” that is being defended, and the infant brigade leading the charge. What the CBC did not uncover was the fact that many of these same “fact checkers” were abandoning Facebook, especially since it became a purveyor of “fake news” in its own right.

Top Articles for October

On Zero Anthropology this month:

1. “Syria: The New Terra Nullius,” October 6.
2. “‘Cocaine Cowboys: Reloaded’ (2014): Reversing Empire and the 1980s’ Drug War,” October 28.

Top articles of the month:

• “The Grievance Studies Scandal: Five Academics Respond,” Quillette Magazine, October 1.
• “The USMCA keeps Canada in America’s thrall,” David Moscrop, Macleans, October 1.
• “Could Trump Take Down the American Empire?” Gareth Porter, Truthdig, October 2.
• “The Grievance Studies Scandal Isn’t Just A Problem For Academia,” John Daniel Davidson, The Federalist, October 4.
• “The military-industrial-humanitarian complex: Spreading Western hegemony under the guise of virtue,” Tomasz Pierscionek, RT, October 4.
• “What an Audacious Hoax Reveals About Academia,” Yascha Mounk, The Atlantic, October 5.
• “‘Identity’ by Francis Fukuyama,” Max Diamond, Real Clear Books, October 8.
• “What the media aren’t telling you about Jamal Khashoggi,” John R. Bradley, Spectator, October 11.
• “‘White Women’ Becomes a Disparaging Term,” Kyle Smith, National Review, October 14.
• “Economic security is national security,” Peter Navarro, The Washington Times, October 17.
• “How Trump broke through the moralistic BS of American foreign policy,” Damon Linker, The Week, October 17.
• “UK press riddled with spooks, conduits for intelligence agencies keen to score one for the Empire,” John Wight, RT, October 18.

NOVEMBER

Coverage for November is once again uneven and partial, since this was another research period and attention was inevitably concentrated on other matters.

Trump Consolidates Power

As the month progressed, it seemed like little new would be happening on the US foreign relations front, especially as the US became consumed with its mid-term elections. Those elections saw little of the much touted Democratic “blue wave,” even after two years of the most consistent, uniform, anti-Trump hysteria in the mainstream media added to an FBI investigation of imagined “collusion” between the Trump campaign and Russia. That all of the hyperbole, conspiracy theories, and incessant fear-mongering led the Democrats to only gain control of one-half of one-third of the US government, would seem to be an indictment of their strategies and inchoate narratives. Trump, allegedly very unpopular, did not witness the worst loss for an incumbent party, and the Republicans increased their lead in the Senate, which also increases their ease in confirming any (likely) new nominee to the Supreme Court. No wonder then that Trump sounded victorious—it was with some justification, and that fact seemed to drive the media quite mad. On the other hand, others read the results quite differently, and noted that Republicans lost key battleground states that were vital to Trump’s 2016 victory: in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, with three senate races and three gubernatorial races, Democrats won all six.

Nevertheless, with a divided Congress, any failure by Trump to achieve his legislative aims will be blamed squarely on the Democrats, giving a perfect alibi as he runs for re-election. In addition, the Democrats’ in-fighting over who would be the Speaker of the House of Representatives meant that for a while their supposed gain would divide them. Trump further consolidated his position by firing Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who had recused himself from matters dealing with the Russia conspiracy allegations, and replacing him with a stalwart critic of the investigations. What all of this amounts to on the foreign policy front, is the gradual dissolution of the Russiagate hoax. Whether that will amount to improved relations with Russia remains to be seen. However, by the end of the year all of the talk was about alleged “campaign finance violations,” not “Russia collusion”.

The US and Saudi Arabia: No Realignment in Sight

If the Khashoggi murder by Saudi Arabia, and the role played by Turkey in highlighting it, suggested a possible change in the power dynamics between the US and Saudi Arabia, Trump put an absolute end to any such possibility with some remarkably deceptive hyperbole that vastly inflated the importance of the Saudi kingdom to the US and world economy. Remarkably, Trump thanked Saudi Arabia for lower oil prices—but if anything, Saudi Arabia prevented oil prices from dropping further since it decided to cut oil supply, along with other OPEC members. Decreased demand from a slowing world economy was primarily responsible for the momentary fall in prices, not Saudi generosity toward Americans.

Trump’s position effectively granted the Saudis impunity, and it cast a shadow on Trump’s claims to be a nationalist who defended “America First”. Commenting on Trump’s published statement, affirming that the relationship with Saudi Arabia was unshakeable and essential, and that the real enemy was Iran, Senator Rand Paul said the statement spoke of “Saudi Arabia First, not America First,” and that he heard John Bolton in Trump’s words. Rand called Bolton, “the king of the swamp”. In the Congress, even allies of Trump vowed to take actions to sanction Saudi Arabia and halt arms sales. In this episode, Trump came across as a puppet of US military contractors and the Saudi kingdom, rather than a fearless and dominant actor. Trump also diverged from the CIA, saying that he instead believed that the Saudi royal family played absolutely no role in ordering the killing of Khashoggi. In what was ostensibly a move meant to dampen US Congressional criticism, the Saudis released the US from aiding with refuelling Saudi jets engaged in bombing Yemen.

On the other hand, there were those who were critical of the criticisms of Trump, arguing that any serious move over Khashoggi would have been hypocritical. Some reminded their readers that Khashoggi had defended the Saudi kingdom and its repressive policies in the past, and had been a promoter of the Muslim Brotherhood, and had personally entertained warm relations with Osama Bin Laden. Moreover, not only had Khashoggi initially supported the Saudi invasion of Yemen, “Khashoggi also remained steadfast in his support of the ‘moderate’ Islamist rebels in Syria, who did to thousands of innocents precisely what the Saudi regime did to him”.

Turkey—hardly a neutral and disinterested party in this affair, having much to gain from diminished Saudi influence—dismissed Trump’s comments on Saudi Arabia as “comic”. Turkey also accused Trump of turning a blind eye to the Saudi’s atrocities.

Iran: Preparing for War?

Turkey also criticized US sanctions on Iran, calling them dangerous and counter-productive. Turkey, though a NATO member and US ally, imported a third of its gas from Iran.

Since at least May, Iran’s leadership had been sounding the alarm about the heightened bellicosity of the Trump administration. In November, they reminded the Americans that several key US bases stretching from the Gulf to central Asia, were in the reach of Iranian missiles. Iran said the same about US aircraft carriers in the region, and sounded as if they were ready for any escalation.

That Iran’s leaders should perceive the situation in such stark terms is at least partly explained by the nature of the threats coming from the Trump administration. Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, opted for blood-thirsty language that relished imposing collective punishment on all Iranians, saying that US sanctions would “squeeze” Iran “until the pips squeak”. Bolton predicted that the Europeans would eventually fall in line with US policy—which is not unlikely. In addition, the thrust of US policy, impacting on Iranians’ ability to even eat, is clearly designed to push for regime change, and this is an almost certain recipe for war. However, the reality is likely to be one where Iran suffers a recession, but nothing like collapse. Iran’s leaders know this, and this partly explains why they remain loudly defiant.

Iran has given no sign of bending to the US’ capricious attitude. The Iranian foreign minister pointedly asked, “Why should we resume another talk just because somebody doesn’t like it? Just because somebody hates his predecessor? That’s not the reason you engage in diplomacy”. Iran’s foreign minister also reassured his listeners that Iranians knew how to survive sanctions, and would do so again. Certainly, without the backing of international law, and in clear violation of an international agreement, the US would find it difficult to convince states and companies that relations with Iran, even surreptitious ones, were beyond thinkable. The US was already aware that numerous countries were preparing alternatives for dealing with US sanctions on Iran. The failure of sanctions, and the polarization of disagreement between the US and Iran, might thus become yet another force pushing towards war. While it is unlikely that Trump will start a new war just before the presidential elections, it seems more likely that he will do so if he wins a second term.

The US and North Korea

The US Defense Department confirmed that military exercises planned for the following year in South Korea would be scaled back in order not to harm the diplomatic initiative with North Korea. It was also revealed that the US and South Korea were in a disagreement about the pace of improved ties between the South and the North. It sounded as if the US was worried that peace would get out of hand, as it tried to maintain international sanctions that now had diminished support.

Early in the month, analysts reported that North Korea was continuing development of its nuclear weapons program, which would make sense in the absence of any substantive change on the Americans’ part. In addition, North Korea postponed new talks with the US Secretary of State. Meanwhile Russia formally protested to the UN that international sanctions were causing humanitarian damage to North Koreans, while the US accused Russia of trying to lift banking restrictions.

The US Trade War with China

Reports were still coming in that China had experienced continued growth in both exports and imports, seemingly defying predictions of a negative impact of Trump’s trade war. However, these reports now suggested that the numbers were deceptive, in that they reflected increased orders before the US tariffs hit, and that the coming months would be the ones in which a decline in China’s trade growth would become apparent. Even now China’s trade surplus was smaller than expected.

After the Democrats won a majority in the House of Representatives, some reports suggested that this would not diminish Trump’s trade war against China—instead, it was likely to amplify it.

The Continued Trade War with Canada

Showing just how much Canada had surrendered, in return for signing the USMCA (NAFTA’s replacement), Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed that Canada would still sign the deal though US tariffs on steel and aluminum remain in place. In other words, in return for a free trade deal Canada was prepared to let go of free trade. On the other hand, some would argue that none of these agreements are about really “free” trade, given the extent of regulations, limits, and controls that they prescribe.

GM Plant Closures in Canada and the US

In the closing week of November stunning news came out that General Motors was shutting down five of its plants (four in the US, one in Canada). On the first day of the news there was some media speculation that perhaps Trump’s steel tariffs had cost Americans their jobs—indeed, while steel tariffs may have accounted for a billon dollar loss for GM, the company was cutting about $6 billion in production and 15% of its workforce, far in excess of any effect of the tariffs. Instead a wide variety of other factors explain GM’s decision to cut plants and jobs. Those jobs were being cut despite GM’s profits. Labour unions and politicians on both sides of the Canada–US border strongly criticized GM’s decision, and President Trump sounded as if he was exercising direct pressure on GM to remedy the situation, even making threats to punish GM. To a certain extent, GM’s