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India: Climate-based system to identify and predict dengue outbreaks

India: Climate-based system to identify and predict dengue outbreaks
02 Sep 2017
  • International researchers developed a climate-based system to predict the spread of dengue disease in various parts of India.
  • University of Liverpool scientists in collaboration with Hyderabad's IICT and Guwahati's NIPER identified climatic risks for dengue outbreaks in different Indian climatic-zones across Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Kerala.
  • The system can not only identify but also take preventive measures against the deadly disease.
  • Know more!

  • Climatic factors play significant role in dengue's incubation period
  • Researchers studied the changes in the dengue virus's "extrinsic incubation period (EIP)" by using daily and monthly mean temperatures in different climatic-zones.
  • EIP is the incubation time taken by the virus inside a mosquito.
  • It is during this period that the virus escapes the mosquito's gut and reaches its salivary glands.
  • The mosquito then becomes infectious, capable of transmitting dengue to human hosts.

  • Higher temperatures cause shorter EIPs, higher dengue transmission
    Temperatures, EIPs
  • At lower temperatures (17-18 degrees Celsius), dengue virus takes longer to incubate, resulting in longer EIPs and lesser disease transmission and vice-versa.
  • If EIP decreases by five days, the dengue transmission rate increases three-fold; if the temperature rises from 17 to 30 degrees Celsius, the transmission increases four times.
  • However, if the temperature is above 35 degree Celsius, it becomes detrimental to mosquitoes' survival.

  • Assessing dengue burden: Considering dynamic EIPs of regions is important
    Climatic Factors
  • Researchers observed that in most regions rainfall and dengue outbreaks had a strong correlation; more rains lead to increased mosquito-breeding grounds.
  • Their study found Kerala, with warm temperatures ranging 23.5-30 degrees Celsius and wet climate, has shorter EIPs (9-14 days) and records a higher number of dengue cases.
  • EIP is the shortest during the monsoon in most states leading to enhanced dengue risk.

  • Still in initial stages of implementing disease control methods: Rao
  • The study found temperature changes affect dengue virus's EIP suggesting future climatic changes would adversely affect India's burden of dengue and other vector-borne diseases.
  • Though methods to control such diseases are being used, they are still in the initial stages in India, said IICT's Rao.
  • He added several factors, including "population density and migration" must be taken into account for future disease-assessment studies.

  • This post first appeared on NewsBytes: Latest News, Breaking News India, Today News, Current News, please read the originial post: here

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    India: Climate-based system to identify and predict dengue outbreaks


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