Dow fell 155, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ went up 68. The MLP index was little changed at 280 & the REIT index rose 4+ to the 435s. Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries saw buying which lowered yields (more below). Oil dropped 2+ to the 66s & gold added 6 to 2538.
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Treasury yields dipped ahead of the final major inflation report before the Federal Reserve's Sep meeting. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was nearly 3 basis points lower at 3.674%, with the 2-year Treasury yield also down by more than 2 basis points at 3.642%. Yields & prices move in opposite directions & 1 basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Treasury yields have stabilized after tumbling last week when a series of labor market releases missed estimates. The data also sent US stocks to their worst week of the year. Investors are now keenly awaiting Aug's consumer price index, set to be published tomorrow to see if headline inflation will ease further from Jul's 2.9% reading as expected. That will be followed by the producer price index on Thurs. Debate has erupted over whether the Fed could opt for a 50 basis point rather than a 25 basis point interest rate cut during the Sep 17-18 meeting. Some analysts argue such a move would show the Fed's commitment to supporting jobs growth, as others contend it would be an unnecessary step that could sow market panic. CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently places market pricing for a 50 basis point move at 27%, against 73% for the smaller move.
Treasury yields edge higher ahead of final inflation prints before Fed meeting
Stocks wavered as investors geared up for a looming consumer
inflation report seen as crucial to determining the size of the first US
interest-rate cut in years. The moves follows yesterday's sharp rebound, which saw the major gauges surge over 1% as investors went post-rout bargain hunting. Volatility is expected in the markets as investors waver
between hopes for a hefty 0.5% rate cut from the Federal Reserve &
worries about recession risks.