For more than a year, China has been sending military aircraft – fighter jets, bombers and anti-submarine aircraft – into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Initially, it started with just a handful of warplanes and slowly increased to a dozen. But over the last few days, the number of military planes sent has definitely raised eyebrows – and fears of war.

On Friday, 38 planes were despatched into Taiwan. On Saturday, another 39 planes were sent. On Monday, a record-breaking 56 fighter jets and bombers flew into the area, just a day after the U.S. voiced its extreme “concern” over the Chinese military activity near the island, which the State Department labelled as provocative, destabilizing and risk miscalculations.

The U.S. said – “We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan. The U.S. commitment to Taiwan is rock solid and contributes to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region. We will continue to stand with friends and allies to advance our shared prosperity, security, and values and deepen our ties with democratic Taiwan.”

Instead of intimidating Beijing, the bold language unleashed by Washington has only emboldened the Chinese to fly more warplanes, as proven on Monday, sending shivers down Taiwan’s spine. Taiwan was obviously not impressed with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) latest record sorties, forcing President Tsai Ing-wen to respond.

The Taiwanese president warned there would be “catastrophic” consequences for peace and democracy in the region of Asia if the island were to fall to China. Her foreign minister, Joseph Wu, meanwhile, has warned that Taiwan is preparing for war with China, and even urged Australia to increase intelligence sharing and security cooperation.

The 56 aircrafts sent by the Chinese military, comprising 38 J-16 fighter jets, two Su-30 fighter jets, two Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft, two KJ-500 early warning aircraft and 12 H-6 bombers, means at least 149 warplanes have joined the “exercises” near Taiwan. It was deliberately done to coincide with the National Day holiday, which started on Friday (Oct 1).

The sorties were also designed to humiliate President Tsai Ing-wen ahead of the island’s National Day on Oct 10. China also appeared to challenge military superpower U.S. to do its best to stop the Chinese so-called provocative incursions into Taiwan – if it can. Beijing accused Washington of being the provocateurs, while warning against supporting Taiwanese independence.

China warned – “Engaging in Taiwan independence is a dead end. China will take all steps needed and firmly smash any Taiwan independence plots”. Whether Taiwan has achieved its independence is a tricky business. President Tsai said Taiwan is already an independent state, making any formal declaration unnecessary. But if it’s true, there’s no reason not to formally declare it just to send a message to Beijing.

While China and Taiwan were divided during a civil war in the 1940s, Beijing considers the island as a rebellious province that must be reunited into China. Besides, only a few countries recognise Taiwan. Even the U.S. has no official ties with Taiwan, but has a law (1979 Taiwan Relations Act) which requires it to provide the island with the means to defend itself.

Therefore, Beijing believes it’s a matter of time before reclaiming Taiwan. So far this year, Taiwanese authorities have reported more than 600 military sorties launched by China. There were a record-high 117 incursions in September alone. Theoretically, China would not attack and reclaim Taiwan now. However, the element of a surprise attack is what worries Taiwan and the U.S.

The fact that Taiwan has repeatedly refused to issue a formal declaration of independence suggests that it’s a red line that it dares not cross. It understood very well what happened to Hong Kong when some young activists and protesters recklessly called for Hong Kong’s independence from China. The demands provided the ammunitions for Beijing to introduce the National Security Law.

In truth, Taiwan’s ADIZ, which extends more than 200 miles into mainland China at its northwest point, is not the same as national airspace. The ADIZ is just a buffer zone that extends beyond the 12-nautical-mile extension from national borders. Hence, Beijing was equally careful not to breach Taiwan’s airspace, which could be interpreted as a breach of the island’s sovereignty – an invasion.

However, breaching the ADIZ, which China seems to enjoy doing, creates a perception of Chinese control and superiority over Taiwan. It’s the next best thing to an invasion, leaving the island with little choice but to scramble its own military jets to intercept. Even missile systems were activated and deployed to monitor the Chinese incursions.

Flying into the ADIZ isn’t illegal or provocative. But the frequency and the size of warplanes sent into ADIZ are seen as provocative because it raises fears of an invasion of Taiwan. It was like when Donald Trump rhetorically sent an armada of 5 aircraft carriers to North Korea in 2017, which didn’t happen, but enough to spook the world of first nuclear war.

It’s possible that Beijing, in sending hundreds of sorties into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, is training its air force for any eventuality of a surprise invasion, taking a cue from Japanese unexpectedly attacks on the unprepared American’s Pearl Harbour in 1941. Even if China has no intention to attack, the strategy is sufficient to tire out Taiwan’s air force.

President Tsai’s response to the endless Chinese incursions has somehow demoralized the Taiwanese population, who might question her administration’s failed diplomacy with Beijing. Like it or not, the Taiwanese people would prefer a diplomatic rather than a military solution to the current tensions. It certainly didn’t help that China appears to be too powerful that Taiwan has to beg for help from even the Australian.

The return of Sabrina Meng Wanzhou, the CFO of Huawei Technologies, and the huge incursions into Taiwan have indeed rallied the people and stoked nationalism behind President Xi Jinping. Even the unusual high-profile presence of 17 Western and allied warships from six countries, conducting exercises in the nearby East Philippine Sea, had failed to intimidate the Chinese military.

Led by two U.S. aircraft carriers – the USS Ronald Reagan and USS Carl Vinson – as well as British HMS Queen Elizabeth, the Western firepower could only watch as Chinese military warplanes continued with its daily incursions into the ADIZ. Beijing has already won the psychological war as Taiwanese people are left to question the types of help from the U.S. and its allies.

Strategically, the constant incursions into Taiwan, with an increasingly larger number of warplanes lately, could be a test designed to see the willingness of the American to deploy its military into the region after the embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan and the collapse of the U.S.-backed government there. Beijing is calling Washington’s bluff in defending Taiwan – militarily.

Everyone thought China’s game plan is an invasion of Taiwan. But what if Beijing’s alternative option is not a military strike, but a blockade of the entire island? Will the U.S. start the first military strike against China, hence legitimizing a military retaliation from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)?

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