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Correlation Economics Blog
Dedicated to monitoring breaking global economic news on a day to day basis
Neutral Price Of Gold And Copper
2023-08-23 09:54
The neutral price of gold (derived from Shanghai gold premiums) and the neutral price of copper (derived from Chinese scrap copper premiums). Gold is outperforming copper Read More
QT And Rate Cuts
2023-08-17 11:54
The next stage will be QT and rate cuts. Bond yields rising and fed funds rate dropping means uninversion of the yield curve. That is bullish gold.  Read More
Bond Yields Will Soar
2023-08-01 08:54
Yellen is about to borrow 1 trillion dollars in Q3. Bond yields will soar.Marc Faber expects bond yields to reach 15%.How do we position ourselves? Buy gold! Read More
Gold Is The Anti-Bond
2023-07-25 12:27
Gold is the Anti-Bond. Gold strength since 2008 is not due to lower bond yields, but due to central bank gold buying.  Read More
Central Banks Buying Gold From ETFs
2023-07-20 08:30
Recently, the gold price has been rising while gold ETFs were flat. This started in Q4 2022. The gap is about 200 tonnes of gold in GLD.This coincides with central bank gold buying of about… Read More
Scarcity Vs. Elasticity - Gold Vs. Credit
2023-07-13 06:16
The natural hierarchy of money starts with gold at the top. Everything else is credit.GoldCurrencyDepositsSecuritiesAs credit expands and contracts, the pyramid grows wider and narrower. In… Read More
Oil Vs. Copper Demand
2023-07-10 09:11
Oil demand doesn't look particularly strong.Oil supply isn't helping either.Copper looks better.Comparison: Read More
Copper Miner AISC
2023-06-29 10:59
Copper price average (red) should be slightly above the AISC (green).  New copper mines that come online in a few years have costs around $2/lb inflation adjusted Read More
2023-06-21 22:19
Jim Rickards: The “BRICS+” countries will announce the creation of a new currency at its annual leaders’ summit conference on August 22–24. This will be the biggest u… Read More
Oil Surplus In Q1 2024
2023-06-21 12:54
If Q3 2023 doesn't boost oil, then oil is in very bad shape.Citigroup says oil will be going below 70. Especially when a recession arrives in Q1 2024 Read More
Gold Is Money
2023-06-17 20:13
Gold is monetary and should not be seen as a commodity. It is money and depends on the 4 prices of money. It's less dependent on mine supply because the stock to flow ratio is very high Read More
R-Star Vs. Real 10 Year Bond Yield
2023-05-27 10:30
The R-Star from the New York Fed gives a measure of the natural real interest rate.For example: On May 2023, the R-Star was 1.14% while the real 10 year bond yield was -1.5%. This means that… Read More
In Gold We Trust Report
2023-05-24 12:01
In Gold We Trust Report 2023:  Read More
OPEC Oil Cuts Vs. Gold
2023-05-23 10:16
OPEC oil cuts are good for gold. DUBAI, April 2, 2023 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers on Sunday announced further oil output cuts of around 1.16 millionOPEC+ to c… Read More
Equivalent Grade Calculator
2023-04-19 18:15
This is a nice calculator for equivalency of different metal grades.… Read More
COFER Update
2023-04-03 08:36
The USD is losing reserve currency status as allocations drop to 58%.  Read More
Break-even Cost Curves
2023-03-26 15:10
Thread about cost curves. Silver:Copper:Uranium:Tin:Oil:Gold:Iron ore:Platinum:Potash:Lithium:Spodumene:Thermal coal:Natural gas: Read More
Bank Unrealized Losses
2023-03-14 15:58
Unrealized losses for several banks. CDS spreads in basispoints you need to pay to protect yourself against default Read More
Baltic Dry Index Vs. China Steel Production
2023-02-20 11:03
The largest segment of dry bulk (67%) is iron ore, grains and coal. Iron ore segment is in terminal decline. Don't count on grains either because China population is dropping now. Also don't… Read More
Stock Forecaster Index (backup)
2023-02-05 11:25
 The Stock Forecaster Index can predict the movement of stocks and is based on the following parameters:Fed balance sheet expansionCredit spreadsInitial jobless claims The Brave-Bu… Read More
China Oil Demand
2023-02-04 16:33
China oil processing demand is rising. It's around 15m barrels/day. Mostly diesel. They export only 1m barrels/day of it and keep the rest Read More
Oil Forecaster Index (backup)
2023-01-29 17:12
 Current status of energy market.The oil price (link 2, link 3) can be predicted based on oil supply and demand numbers. Demand can be correlated to U.S. GDP while supply… Read More
Oil Open Interest Vs. Oil Price
2023-01-24 11:33
Open interest in oil is a leading indicator for the oil price as it tells us whether there is money flowing into the sector or not. By checking out the Open Interest of various commodit… Read More

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