2024-04-22 22:11
Ok, traders. here’s the plan. I hope everyone has a fine evening Read More
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Dereck's Trades Blog
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Technical Analysis and Market Commentary on the Stock Market.
2024-04-20 13:56
Happy Weekend, traders. I hope everyone has a fine weekend Read More
2024-04-18 22:20
Good afternoon, traders. I hope everyone has a fine evening Read More
2024-04-17 01:37
Good evening, traders. I hope everyone has a fine evening Read More
2024-04-16 00:27
Good evening, traders. I hope everyone has a fine evening Read More
2024-04-13 00:36
Happy Weekend, traders. I hope everyone has a fine weekend Read More
2024-04-12 02:41
Good evening, traders. I hope everyone has a fine night Read More
2024-04-10 23:16
Alright, troops, the situation is now this. I hope everyone has a fine evening Read More
2024-04-09 21:22
Good afternoon, traders. We’re stuck in a range. I hope everyone has a fine evening Read More
2024-04-06 14:53
Happy Weekend, traders. Given the ghastly candle that was produced on Thursday, the door remains open for a larger pullback—if not an outright change in trend. So, going into the weeke… Read More
2024-04-05 00:47
Good evening, traders. Well the bears could probably not have asked for a better breakdown, backtest and rejection of a major trend line than this: I spent the morning looking for the top of… Read More
2024-04-03 22:32
Good afternoon, traders. The present situation is this. Depending on where exactly you want to anchor the lower rail, the channel-that-shall-not-be-named remains defended: Until this breaks… Read More
2024-04-02 21:34
Good afternoon, traders. This week, the S&P 500 has produced nothing but bearish price action so far, a fitting arrangement that began on April Fools: The only caveat to this is that bea… Read More
2024-03-29 13:28
Happy Weekend, traders. This market has become simply one of the most tedious things I have ever experienced. I hope everyone has a fine weekend Read More
2024-03-27 21:12
Good afternoon traders. Well /ES futures has smashed its way out of its bull flag late in the session: That’s as clear a breakout of a consolidation as you’re ever going to see… Read More
2024-03-27 00:20
Good afternoon, traders. Going into the weekend, we observed the bull flag that had developed on futures but also the bear flag we could discern on the cash index, and I felt the bear flag w… Read More
2024-03-23 12:07
Happy Weekend, traders. Broadly speaking, S&P 500 futures rallied from a triangle, and has now bull flagged: Now just because we see a bull flag doesn’t mean we are to trust it. An… Read More
2024-03-21 23:16
Good afternoon, traders. Ok. A couple of weeks ago I discussed how the weakness in yields and the dollar might signal equity strength ahead (here) but even I wasn’t expecting such a bi… Read More
2024-03-21 00:50
Good evening, traders. Well on March 1st in Bulls on Parade, I discussed how we could generate 5219 as a target, and though I had no idea if we would get to it or not, and though I’ve… Read More
2024-03-19 23:00
Good afternoon, traders. No sooner had the bears got their beautiful false breakout of the /NQ bullish wedge (here) then did they get a complete bloodbath bullish from open to close day, ope… Read More
2024-03-19 01:50
Good evening, traders. We have an interesting development for the time being on the Nasdaq-100. This bullish wedge has produced a false breakout: This is generally a good sign for the bears… Read More
2024-03-15 23:47
Happy Weekend, traders. I don’t have a lot to comment on as we’ve effectively gone only sideways for the time being. But, here’s what I have. And so until the big bears mov… Read More
2024-03-13 21:41
Good afternoon, traders. We have 3 options. I hope everyone has a fine evening Read More
2024-03-12 21:53
Good afternoon, traders. Well in yesterday’s session we observed the bullish wedge that was forming, and in today’s session, we watched an inverse develop. Here’s how that… Read More
2024-03-11 20:24
Good afternoon, traders. We will look at two possibilities for the time being. We’ll start with the bears. The market has every reason to top: we have froth, we are still sort of… Read More
2024-03-09 20:29
In January, I discussed the long-term picture and made the case for it being very bearish. As readers will already know, I don’t ever adopt a bullish or bearish bias “just b… Read More
2024-03-08 21:33
Happy Weekend, traders. Well we’re definitely in an area where I have wanted to see some selling, and we got that. We also got a grisly selloff in some of the bullshit that has been bu… Read More
2024-03-07 00:12
Good afternoon, traders. There are two ways we may interpret the market here. I hope everyone has a fine evening Read More
2024-03-05 22:53
Good afternoon, traders. Well yesterday the bears got a decent intraday reversal, and they needed only some followthrough to help to confirm. They got that today, but now the bulls got thems… Read More
2024-03-05 01:00
Good evening, traders. We may continue our discussion from this weekend. We’ve had these bullish structures on SPX, which have been breaking up, and today we did get an intraday revers… Read More
2024-03-02 02:49
Happy Weekend, traders. Yesterday we discussed how the failure of bears to turn any of the structures we could observe on the Nasdaq 100 (and other indices, but I think most clearly visible… Read More
2024-02-29 21:32
Good afternoon, traders. The bears had one job and it was to invalidate some of these very bullish structures developing on /NQ: Instead of doing that, we rallied through the top of the smal… Read More
2024-02-28 23:43
Good afternoon, traders. The Nvidia launch pushed the Nasdaq-100 futures through the top of a bull flag, and from there, they have created a bullish wedge consolidation above that: All of th… Read More
2024-02-27 23:48
Good afternoon, traders. The S&P 500 has made a 3rd attempt to push through its primary uptrend line, and closed just back above it today: This entire recent retracement has been charact… Read More
2024-02-27 01:00
Good evening, traders. Well the bears once again find themselves under this primary uptrend line: They have found themselves below that twice before already and in the prior cases, they coul… Read More
2024-02-24 02:24
Happy Weekend, traders. I want to begin by looking at the semiconductor ETF SMH. It has arrived at an important long-term trend line: That trend line comes from here: This ETF is about 25% N… Read More
2024-02-23 01:47
Good evening, traders. Of the options discussed yesterday, between the NVDA pump (and everything that moved in sympathy with it) and the initial claims beat in the pre-market, we got the tri… Read More
2024-02-21 21:10
Good afternoon, traders. There are two things we may do with the price action, so far as I can see. All bears have been able to do is make a higher low and a contraction... To view this cont… Read More
2024-02-21 00:14
Good evening, traders. The S&P 500 gapped under 5000 and its primary trend line that has supported the rally. I think are one of two things we may do. I hope everyone has a fine evening Read More
2024-02-16 22:17
Happy Weekend, traders. After shrugging off the generally hawkish FOMC meeting and shrugging off the CPI miss, the market looked like it was about to also shrug off the PPI miss, too. But, w… Read More
2024-02-16 02:56
Good evening, traders. I don’t have anything special here at the moment. After the stick save on Tuesday, bulls recaptured the primary uptrend line and have bull flagged their way back… Read More
2024-02-14 23:21
Good afternoon, traders. After probing beneath the primary uptrend line that has governed the rally since last October, the bulls effortlessly recaptured it with a gap up this morning, forme… Read More
2024-02-13 21:58
Good afternoon, traders. Well the bears needed some followthrough to help to confirm yesterday’s bearish daily candle, and today the VIX crashed up because the SPX decided to do the un… Read More
2024-02-12 23:50
Good afternoon, traders. I have only a couple of straightforward comments today. The S&P 500 reached the very apex of this contracting rally, squirted higher today, but then staged an in… Read More
2024-02-10 04:11
After touching 5000 late in yesterday’s session and initially rejecting it, the S&P 500 gapped over the hallmark number after seasonal adjustments to the CPI improved the numbers… Read More
2024-02-09 03:03
Good evening, traders. Well here’s how bad things are for the bears. There is a primary up trend line, which is well-defined, as it has 3 touches now. It remains entirely intact: And a… Read More
2024-02-07 21:34
Good afternoon, traders. All other patterns aside, we’re in a relentless 45-degree channel that we’ve lived in for many weeks now: Nothing even remotely bearish can happen until… Read More
2024-02-06 23:45
Good afternoon, traders. There isn’t much I can add today as we hardly did anything anyways. As I presently see it, two choices. We are either forming a rising wedge of some kind that… Read More
2024-02-06 00:09
Good afternoon, traders. The S&P 500 has returned to the top of its trading range after Friday’s orgasm above it: There are a couple of things we may try to do with this. We’… Read More
2024-02-03 15:04
Happy weekend, traders. After Thursday’s identification of an inverse on SPX, the bulls got their move and the S&P generated the range identified late on Thursday (here) through th… Read More
2024-02-02 05:43
Good evening, traders. I was going to wait until tomorrow to post some of this in article format, but I think I will add the thoughts tonight so you can consider them now. With the tech earn… Read More
2024-02-01 20:42
Good afternoon, traders. There are two choices. The failure for bears to show any strength after yesterday’s drop has produced an inverse head & shoulders pattern that targets 4950… Read More
2024-02-01 03:12
Good evening, traders. Let’s review the H&S on the nasdaq-100 we have been observing. I hope everyone has a fine evening Read More
2024-01-31 02:01
Good evening, traders. I hope everyone has a fine evening Read More
2024-01-30 02:44
Good evening, traders. We’ll start with the bad news. So, we have to see which of these is right. Structurally, we have strong and continual breakouts and breakouts and breakouts and n… Read More
2024-01-27 18:07
In this weekend’s review, I will discuss both the short- and long-term pictures. The Short-Term Picture I will begin with a discussion of the Dow. If you look at this casually, you wil… Read More
2024-01-26 00:15
Good afternoon, traders. The S&P 500 has produced a triangle: As an Elliott Wave structure, these are often found in fourth waves (implying another high to come), but as a classical… Read More
2024-01-25 02:48
Good evening, traders. The S&P 500’s bull flag delivered and was no bull trap at yesterday’s close. Instead, we gapped up, reaching very close to the measured move of the inv… Read More
2024-01-24 01:47
Good evening, traders. There are two things that I think can happen here in the short term. I hope everyone has a fine evening Read More
2024-01-22 22:07
Good afternoon, traders. The S&P 500 put in a shooting star candle today and has developed excellent and clear bearish divergence on the daily momentum indicators: We also I hope everyon… Read More
2024-01-20 01:08
Happy Weekend, traders. In last night’s late post, I offered this as a possible structure we may be involved in: And I suggested that it might even overthrow, and we certainly got that… Read More
2024-01-19 04:46
Good evening, traders. I originally thought I would not write an article tonight, as I didn’t think I had anything new to offer since we remain within this monthlong range. But I do ha… Read More
2024-01-17 22:18
Good afternoon, traders. As per usual, they’re torturing the bears on the way down, putting us through a drop that consists almost entirely of consolidations. I hope everyone has a fin… Read More
2024-01-16 23:45
Good evening, traders. Tonight, I will be brief. Today was a very dull day, but despite the lack of pep in any direction, there was above average volume and it looks internally like there wa… Read More
2024-01-13 03:06
Happy Weekend traders. The S&P 500 appears to be producing a broadening formation, locally: And this comes within the context of an even larger broadening formation regionally: These sor… Read More
2024-01-12 00:12
Good evening, traders. We’re still developing what I think is a large pattern of distribution on indices such as the S&P 500 (the Russell has already—I think—begun its… Read More
2024-01-10 21:44
Good afternoon, traders. I don’t have a lot to add as the analysis remains unchanged, despite the market trying to stretch its legs some more. We have the CPI data coming in the mornin… Read More
2024-01-10 01:11
Good evening, traders. There is no change to my analysis at this time, as the market closed today essentially unchanged from yesterday. I hope everyone has a fine evening Read More
2024-01-08 21:15
Good afternoon, traders. Well last week we could observe a “coil” forming on SPX at the recent lows, and I like to try to be at least open to both directions when we see those. T… Read More
2024-01-05 23:07
Happy Weekend, traders. The S&P 500 is torturing itself at this support level generated from the lows made on 12/14 & 12/20: It looks as though it is attempting to turn prior support… Read More
2024-01-04 21:47
Good afternoon, traders. The S&P 500 continues to produce messy, bearish structure, and we managed to lose support and close under the 20-day SMA and under the 12/20 low: Because of the… Read More
2024-01-04 00:00
Good afternoon, traders. The S&P 500’s bear flags (noted yesterday) have continued to deliver, and we’ve now made it back to the 20-day SMA: I hope everyone has a fine evenin… Read More
2024-01-03 00:13
Good afternoon, traders. First, a trend line. Observe this important trend line that comes from the August ’22 and July ’23 highs: Zoomed in, you can see how we lost it and then… Read More
2023-12-30 21:27
Happy Weekend, traders, and Happy New Year as well. Let’s first revisit our thoughts from Thursday. In that article, we looked at how our growing set of triangles was consistent with a… Read More
2023-12-29 00:38
Good afternoon, traders. We’ll we’re looking for a top in this area, and we’re also looking at what has appeared to be a variety of triangles which have recently formed, an… Read More
2023-12-28 02:54
Good evening, traders. The S&P 500 appears to have finished another triangle today: This should be a good sign for bears, as it’s not the only one we have and when they start stack… Read More
2023-12-27 02:21
Good evening, traders. Well we’ve been observing the S&P 500’s relationship with this red trend line, as it has continued to grind along its trajectory for weeks: It has been… Read More
2023-12-21 01:41
A couple of observations I can make. We have been observing this trend line, which I have thought may serve as some resistance, and it’s given us a very harsh rejection after a probe a… Read More
2023-12-19 23:41
Good afternoon, traders. The S&P 500 continues to hump and grind this red trend line: I think when it lets this go, it will be our sign that the rally is complete. I continue to expect a… Read More
2023-12-19 02:39
Good evening, traders. The S&P 500 spent the day grinding the upper red rail of our broadening formation: I hope everyone has a fine evening Read More
2023-12-17 00:58
We last discussed MSFT in November (here), and I want to revisit it again in an article. We’re in a tech bubble that has popped but doesn’t realize it yet. Locally, MSFT has come… Read More
2023-12-16 05:06
Two weekends ago I discussed how I was expecting a market reversal (here) and last weekend I discussed how I believed we were in a pattern of distribution (here). Nothing has changed in thos… Read More
2023-12-14 21:42
Good afternoon, traders. There are two trend lines I would like to look at today. The first one is the upper red trend line of this volatile broadening formation we have produced. We gapped… Read More
2023-12-14 04:00
Good evening, traders. I was pissed off earlier and thought I wouldn’t write an article while I wait for the god damn sellers to show up, but I’ve changed my mind and I will prov… Read More
2023-12-12 21:27
Good afternoon, traders. The S&P 500 remains in the volatile, broadening formation: So we’re in an important week, and let’s see what happens tomorrow Read More
2023-12-12 00:32
Good afternoon, traders. There’s virtually nothing I can add here. We remain in this broadening formation. If it’s a distribution, I expect the structure to fail. We may have a r… Read More
2023-12-08 22:42
Happy Weekend, traders. The S&P 500 continues to develop its increasingly large broadening formation. I believe it is a large pattern of distribution. On Tuesday, I discussed how there a… Read More
2023-12-07 22:46
Good afternoon, traders. The S&P 500 continues to beat around the bush in what I still assume is a pattern of distribution: There two things I can do for now. I don’t have a partic… Read More
2023-12-07 00:00
Good afternoon, traders. Here is our structure on the S&P 500: And, as discussed yesterday, there’s several things we can do with it still, at least until we leave it. I hope every… Read More
2023-12-06 01:42
Good evening, traders. Well, the S&P 500 continues to remain involved in this expanding, sort of broadening pattern: And unfortunately, there are 3 things we can do with it here. I hope… Read More
2023-12-05 00:21
Good afternoon, traders. The S&P 500 continues to stay involved in this overlapping and volatile structure: The market is strangely divided here. On the one hand, the NDX—and the m… Read More
2023-12-02 03:24
Happy Weekend traders. I want to begin by revisiting the elephant in the room. We’ve rallied hard in November from a low that I thought we weren’t nearly bearish enough at for it… Read More
2023-12-01 00:33
Good afternoon, traders. Let’s take a look at the ascending triangle we discussed yesterday. Yesterday’s failed breakout attempt made it look like this bullish pattern was about… Read More
2023-11-30 01:04
Good evening, traders. Well I didn’t have anything I could add yesterday because we barely moved and we stayed in the tight range we had been in for some days, and I ran the risk of si… Read More
2023-11-27 21:22
Good afternoon, traders. I hope everyone who celebrated the holiday had good time and got stuffed. On the U.S. indices, triangles and other overlapping structures abound. The NDX futures may… Read More
2023-11-23 03:28
Good evening, traders, and Happy Thanksgiving! Last discussed a couple of days ago here, the S&P 500 has struck this trend line: As difficult as it may seem—especially given the Ma… Read More
2023-11-21 23:59
Good afternoon, traders. We had a little continuation from yesterday’s EOD drop, and we did nothing but consolidate after that. It’s possible that we’re facing a little bea… Read More
2023-11-21 00:11
Good afternoon, traders. Well my hopes for some rangebound conditions didn’t last long. We stayed rangebound only for a couple of days, but that turned out to be a consolidation before… Read More
2023-11-17 23:46
Happy Weekend, traders. After our huge reaction to the CPI print (which I don’t often try to predict), the indices have stalled and are presently producing some initial bearish structu… Read More
2023-11-16 23:54
Good afternoon, traders. The S&P 500 has moved very little, so I have little I can add. We still have what might be a little, tiny topping pattern developing here: Even so, since this is… Read More
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