September has historically been a ‘meh’ month for Bitcoin, and this past September has proven no different. Bitcoin fell 7% from August, to end the month at $43,834. What is amazing though, is the tweet that PlanB made all the way back in June, where he predicted where the Bitcoin price was going to end on a monthly basis, based on on-chain metrics.
He was bang-on in terms of price action, where he said that Bitcoin will definitely close above $47K for August, and $43K for September.
Now, the exciting part is that he has big predictions lined up for the rest of the year, with Bitcoin poised to make big moves, if his predictions are to come to pass.
- October close of > $63K
- November close of > $98K
- December close of > $135K
These are pretty big numbers, and don’t forget, these are base, or worst case figures. I’m a bitcoin bull, and even I am a little skeptical of that pacing. BUT, he has been proven right over 2 months, and in general with his stock-to-flow model.
Bitcoin monthly price action
Catalysts for Q4
There are several narrative breaks that can help boost that kind of price action for bitcoin in Q4.
- Big corporations buying the dip quietly (ie, the mythical institutional wave of money) and announcing the purchases in their Q3 results calls
- Bitcoin ETF approval in the US
- Another country adopts Bitcoin as legal tender
Any one of these happening is cause for a big price spike, and I suspect we will at least cross off 2 of the 3 possible narratives up there.
September Crypto Happenings
El Salvador official adopts Bitcoin as legal tender. Yes, I know we’ve been talking about this since June, but it became official on 7 September 2021, as Bitcoin was rolled out as legal tender, and every El Salvadorian was to receive $30 in Bitcoin in their Chivo Bitcoin Wallet.
On the other end of the spectrum, China has banned cryptocurrency. Again. Previously, they banned mining, and now it seems the ban has extended to users actually making transactions. But honestly, this china ban thing is getting quite ridiculous. They are banning all sorts of things, from effeminate male celebrities, to even some local chinese celebrities like Zhao Wei, and even children playing video games.
China has also banned YouTube, Facebook, WhatsApp, and that hasn’t stopped each of them from becoming the giants they currently are. So, I think china banning bitcoin once and for all, might be the thing that frees Bitcoin to scale up without fear.
Lastly, VISA is jumping onto crypto in a big way. Last month, they purchased a cryptopunk. Now, they’re announcing that they are working on a layer 2 network that will allow VISA to integrate with stablecoins and CBDCs, believing them to be the future of finance. Interestingly, their proposed base layer will be on Ethereum.
Are you excited for Q4 yet?
