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=========TRADING SIGNALS, NOT INDICATIVE OF POSITIONS=========
SHORT TERM (5-10 day cycle) SIGNAL BEARISH ON 1/11
SWING TRADING (10-30 day cycle) SIGNAL BULLISH ON 12/31
- The short term signal has not panned out. I am waiting for a dip and the signal to reset to a BUY before going back into the market
- A long SPX rally is supported by surging Yield Curve Slope similar to the mid to late ’90s and 2005-2006
- Expect the market to have a very BULLISH 2019 in a run to a final TOP
S&P500 Volatility (proprietary)
I developed the S&P500 Volatility Index to help characterize the volatility of the S&P500 market. It has nothing to do with $VIX (which shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility, constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options). This indicator serves to rank the volatility of the current market period using market price data from 1990 to 8/9/2016.
Recent trading has been more volatile than 72.9% of all trading periods since 1990.
Zooming in, You can see that the 5 dma is below the 20 dma.
Technicals Model (proprietary)
The first chart below is the cumulative Technicals Model dating back to 2006. The Model was higher today for the 10th day in a row. Here you can see the model performance (in blue vs. SPX in black) all the way back to 2006. The cumulative Technicals Model last made a new All Time High on 1/30/2018. In a warning, it is now below its 200 dma after a negative divergence with the market at the previous market top.
This next chart shows the daily readings, not cumulative as above. Here you can see which particular trading days are the strongest/weakest technically with the markets as portrayed by the model. Divergences also show up near significant market Tops and Bottoms.
The model is above its 5 dma, and well off the June and July highs. In June the Model accelerated lower at a higher pace than SPX. There are 7 negative divergences, since June, indicating a deteriorating market. A positive divergence formed in October, signaling a reversal higher. A new positive divergence has formed with a higher Model Reading currently vs. SPX market, dating back to September.
Orange circles (on top) represent an indicator called a Technicals Thrust. Similar to the Zweig Breadth Thrust, it looks for hard reversals higher. To be a Technicals Thrust, I look for a 0.50 gain within 5 days (with a peak above 0.35).
What is this model? It’s a comprehensive assessment of a good number of technical indicators on each S&P500 stock. This model does 2 things well. First, it shows divergences from SPX price. Most valuable of all, my model has a lot less volatility than SPX price but does a great job of capturing SPX trend, which should do well with forecasting SPX price movements in the future.
HYG:IEF ratio is a way of looking at Greed vs. Fear in the more sophisticated bond market.
This ratio was not able to maintain above the red resistance line, then reversed lower well below all moving averages. At the lowest level in years, there was only 1 positive divergence. The ratio recovered again this week, and regained its 50 dma. There is however 1 negative divergence that has formed.
I put this chart ahead of the SPX analysis for a reason, its important.
SPX Monthly through December, 2018
On the monthly scale, the market had been expanding since a 2015-2016 consolidation period into this year. Its easy to see Negative Divergences that have developed many years ago, and secondary negative divergences formed with September’s All Time Highs.
ADX: Bearish, trending
RSI: Mid range
Volume: Well above the rising 20 period moving average.
Moving Averages: 12>Close>36>72>120 period moving averages
% Bollinger Band: Lower Band
Bollinger Band Width: Steadily Narrowing
MACD: Bearish at a positive value, histogram ticked lower for the 3rd month in a row.
There had been negative divergences for many years, and secondary negative divergences developed since January with September’s new All Time Highs. 1 Positive Divergence formed recently.
ADX: Bearish, trending
RSI: Mid range
Volume: Below the rising 20 period moving average.
Moving Averages: 50>20>Close>100>200 period moving averages
% Bollinger Band: Mid Band
Bollinger Band Width: Beginning to narrow
MACD: Bearish at a negative value, histogram higher for the 3rd week in a row
5 negative divergences in September foreshadowed the drop in October. 10 Hindenburg Omens sent warnings of market action since October as well. At recent lows, 3 positive divergences developed.
ADX: Bullish, trading
RSI: Mid range
Volume: Below the declining 20 period moving average.
Moving Averages: 200>100>Close>50>20
% Bollinger Band: Upper band
Bollinger Band Width: Expanding
MACD: Bullish at a positive value, histogram higher for the 1st day in a row.
2 Long and strong negative divergences at the recent top, however the other 3 were recently broken.
VIX is on a MACD SELL signal. Hourly VIX had 5 positive divergences at recent lows. VIX should set up for a reversal higher here.
VIX 15 minute chart show 5 long and strong positive divergences at recent lows. VIX should reverse higher shortly.
VIX 442-hr Which Side of Trade?
Traders who prefer to trade one side, should note that the Bull signal ended earlier in the Autumn, and continue to watch the blue line in relation to the purple horizontal signal line.
This chart attempts to use a long term average for VIX to identify Bull markets. I use a 442 hour EMA of VIX as that is approximately how many trading hours there are in a quarter of a year. When this value is below 17.5, those who like to trade one side at a time should make sure to be trading the long side. This chart makes no comment about the other times, meaning the inverse is not necessarily true.
High-Low was +5 today. The SPX McClellan Oscillator has been higher for the past 11 days. The SPX A-D line is above its rising 20 EMA, with its ATH made on 9/20/2018. The summation index is back in positive range, topped in July 2016, with negative divergences going back to early 2016.
More SPX Breadth
More breadth indicators, note the negative divergences since 2016/2017 on many of these. 5 of 5 of these signals are BULLISH.
SPX %above MA
The stochastic indicators have signaled a BUY for 5 of the 5 indicators, but the readings for most are way overbought. Note all the negative divergences from June into September, showing weakening market participation. These indicators fell to oversold territory, and made higher lows, signaling a reversal higher which occurred in October. Now all 5 STO indicators show positive divergences vs. SPX which has led the market higher.
This chart compares SPX to its Utilities sector. Utilities are a defensive sector so this ratio will drag lower on building fear.
This chart shows fear bottomed a couple days before the SPX low. Note 5 positive divergences have developed, which has led to a rally. Its current reading is at new highs along with SPX, but has formed 2 negative divergences of late.
This should peak when SPX is high and VIX is low. The ratio indicates that VIX is a little lower than it should be right now. Note the 5 positive divergences from October into December ahead of the recent rally. Recently 1 negative divergence has developed.
A chart that study’s the stocks in the SPX as if they all had equal weighting.
SPXEW is tracking close to SPX, no strong signal here. Note the 3 positive divergences from October into December ahead of the recent rally. Now 1 negative divergence has developed of late.
Each week I will take a look at the UST10Y-UST2Y, though it will be the daily chart. This chart symbolizes whether the yield curve is supporting economic expansion (by increasing the spread), or providing additional head winds (decreasing). The long and strong positive divergences are in place at recent lows. This level is well below the levels seen in October 2007, and well below when Trump took office.
What’s interesting here, the spread is at 0.19, while recessions since the 1970’s started when the spread was near zero or negative (shown below). If that trend is right, we are a while away from that taking place. You can see the trend is lower over the past several years, but we are currently at a top or consolidating. The bull leg started before the election, as the tide was turning positive for Trump support. Looking at the short term, there has not been a new high or low put in recently, so no divergences to compare to make a prediction.
BUT WAIT…THERE’S MORE ON THE YIELD CURVE
I downloaded US Treasury data (all maturity periods) for every day since 1990. Then I preformed a linear regression on the yields for every maturity period each day and calculated the slope of the linear regression line. This is more robust than merely just subtracting 10Y-2Y as many (including me) do. The resulting graph shows the periods slope were negative in light red. See how nicely they line up with the SPX top in 2000 and just before the 2007 top? Now look from 2009 to present day. The yield slope is actually sharply rising! Remember, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics!! We are currently at the best levels since before the 2008-2009 Great Recession!! Note the blue zones which correlate with sharply rising Yield Curve in the mid and late 1990s and 2005-2006, preceding the market top. This supports a sharp SPX rally during 2019 for SPX, likely to a final TOP before the next recession.
Zooming in, I have been tracking the Yield Curve Slope with regard to its 20 dma vs. its 50 dma. Comparing to SPX price action, there is some correlation between 20/50 dma Yield Curve Slope cross, and future market performance. This metric did very well foreshadowing the early 2018 peak and spring 2018 bottom.
The Yield Curve Slope rising to near new highs, with the 20 dma way above the 50 dma, which will lead the markets higher in the coming weeks and months. However note the Yield Curve Slope has decreased of late.
Deflation risk which steadily climbed in spring 2017, jumped in early summer 2017 before going sideways. This Autumn this ratio was falling hard, supportive of more inflation worries rather than deflation. The role has reversed earlier during the Winter, signaling a Deflation fear, which has reversed once more of late.
The bond market Deflation vs. Inflation metric (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund vs. iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund). Values early in 2015 and pretty much all of 2016 are showing higher Deflation fears than even 2008-2009.
From this chart you can clearly see when the FED stepped in (when this ratio was nearing 1, except things got out of control at the peak of the 2008 downturn until the FED figured some things out). Clearly things changed since late 2014 and the FED has stepped aside leading to the Deflation fears building beyond the 2008 crisis.
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