1. GDP GROWTH SLOWS TO 3-YEAR LOW: India’s GDP growth has slumped to a three year low in the June’17 quarter. GDP slowed down to 5.7% in April- June quarter from 6.1% in the preceding quarter. This is mainly because of the slowdown of manufacturing sector as the production was the lowest.The manufacturers were busy to get rid of old stocks rather than producing new ahead of July 1st rollout of GST. Along with manufacturing, slowdown in construction and mining sectors too pulled down the GDP. Experts fear full year growth to be below 7%.
2. FAKE NOTES MAY BE MORE THAN DOUBLE OF ESTIMATES:The amount of Fake (counterfeit) notes in the system is more than double of what the Reserve Bank of India had estimated.The likely quantum of fake notes in the system is estimated to be as high as Rs. 23,235 crores. Immediately after the note ban, RBI conducted a survey of 1,000 currency chests across the country and the survey has revealed 7.1 pieces per million for Rs. 500 notes and 19.1 pieces per million for Rs. 1,000 notes. Going by the number of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000 notes in circulation as of March 2016, the amount of fake currency in the system could be a staggering Rs.23,235 crores. Considering the amount involved, the government, RBI and the banks have to decide how to share the liability. And given the estimates of fake notes, there could be severe impact on banks’ balance sheet.
3. PSB MERGERS WILL RAISE BANK RATINGS: As per Moody’s Investors Service report, merging India’s public sector banks will improve their rating because it will provide efficiencies of scale and enhance quality of corporate governance. However, infusion of funds by the government will be a key factorfor these banks as many of the banks have weak capital adequacy.
4. BUYERS’ INTEREST WILL BE PROTECTED IN THE STALLED PROJECTS THROUGH “RERA”:The government has assured home buyers that their interest will be protected in the stalled projects through newly implemented Real Estate Regulation Act (RERA). It says buyers’ interest is the government’s top priority.
5. BANKS UNDER RBI’S “PROMPT CORRECTIVE ACTION”(PCA) FACE PROBLEMS: Banks which have been placed under restrictions through PCA by RBI to improve their financials are feeling the heat, as their deposit growth have fallen below industry level.Their customers under panic are withdrawing deposits or closing their accounts with such banks.
6. BOOST FOR THE GOVERNMENT—GST REVENUE HITS Rs 93,000 CRORE MARK: The government has collected Rs 92,283 crores from GST and this is just 64% of the tax payers who have filed the returns for July 2017. So the final amount will be even more.
7. NATIONALISED BANKS EXEMPTED FROM CCI APPTROVAL FOR MERGERS: Mergers and acquisitions beyond a certain threshold compulsorily require clearance from Competition Commission of India (CCI). Now paving the way for fast-tracking consolidation amongst the PSU banks, the government has exempted mergers of nationalised banks from seeking permission/approval from CCI.
This post first appeared on IMPACT OF DEMONITIZATION OF CURRENCY IN INDIA IN 2016, please read the originial post: here