Quote: After a long hiatus finally am back to blogging. The reason for the hibernation was to comply to SEBIs diktat. Finally have got the SEBI Investment Advisor registration in place(SA Investment Advisors. SEBI Registration No: INA300011991). Wish each and every one of you a very happy,lively and prosperous new year 2019.
Forget all macro and let’s concentrate on only something where we are required to concentrate:-
1) There’s no bull or bear Market this days as the cycle has shortened. Previously it would be 5 years of bull market and a bear market with same proportion of time but at present this are phases which are much frequent. It’s futile to hazard a guess and only resort is to stay put in good stocks backed by a ‘great sky is the limit’ aspiring jockey/managment team. Wherever there will be growth the market would pay a premium.
2) Nothing actually changed over the last few months yet at point of penning this note,the small cap index is down by 35% from its peak which is staggering. The greed and fear syndrome in market is back in vogue with this time being the latter. In a good market the PE gets rerated and vice versa on the reverse. Soon the albatrosses would find their junks desolated venue to make northward ways for the quality one.Your patience will get tested but conviction would be wildly rewarded.
3) If you are anxious about your portfolio but posses good quality cos with solid growth ahead backed by robust pedigree,sooth your nerves by fathoming the simple thing. The country is happy to grow by 6-7% yet the companies in your portfolio would grow at a minimum 20-25%. A few will grow by 40-50% CAGR for next 3-5 years. That’s serious growth folks. It’s only a matter of time before sanity comes back to the markets with eventual rerating of good stocks irrespective of small,mid or large caps.
4) When I go and speak to all the managments or visit the plants in person,it’s a complete different scenario. Everyone seems to be working over time. The order books are full,there’s more enquiries than ever,new employees are getting recruited,plants are being expanded-takes you to a different state of mind altogether. The idealogy remains simple,try to have that feel of lucrative business ownership and stock markets would automatically be a different place for you.
5) Avanti feeds adjusted everything moved from 7rs to 3000rs in a matter of 8 years. Nalanda capital swallowed a chunk of Page Industries during the era of 2007 at 600 bucks only to exit partly presently ar 25000 levels. Symphony moved from 2rs to 1200 almost in the same period. Enough of listening this sob stories. It’s high time you avail the bragging rights by just simply staying put in the companies you own as long as their growth story is intact. With time,they can only make you richer.
Conclusion: It fascinates me to the core sensing so many of the gullible retailers who are happy locking their money in FDs for decades,generating absoloute post tax peanuts but refrains to give bit of time to the best wealth generation asset in the world. The good part is I or you require nothing in lieu but just time and patience to grow richer along with all this amazing partners. The bad part remains,some of you will see,read,understand everything yet will panic and sell it to your neighbours at the least of prices only to see them getting liberated at age of 40 Vs your liberation at grandpa age of 60. You want to be in which boat-I leave that choice to you peeps.
Btw: We will be shortly launching our SEBI registered subscription based Investment advisory thing which will include the stock recommendation service pertaining to the high quality-high potential small and midcaps. If it interests you,do put a mail to [email protected].
Regards,
Arun Mukherjee
SA Investment Advisors
Forget all macro and let’s concentrate on only something where we are required to concentrate:-
1) There’s no bull or bear Market this days as the cycle has shortened. Previously it would be 5 years of bull market and a bear market with same proportion of time but at present this are phases which are much frequent. It’s futile to hazard a guess and only resort is to stay put in good stocks backed by a ‘great sky is the limit’ aspiring jockey/managment team. Wherever there will be growth the market would pay a premium.
2) Nothing actually changed over the last few months yet at point of penning this note,the small cap index is down by 35% from its peak which is staggering. The greed and fear syndrome in market is back in vogue with this time being the latter. In a good market the PE gets rerated and vice versa on the reverse. Soon the albatrosses would find their junks desolated venue to make northward ways for the quality one.Your patience will get tested but conviction would be wildly rewarded.
3) If you are anxious about your portfolio but posses good quality cos with solid growth ahead backed by robust pedigree,sooth your nerves by fathoming the simple thing. The country is happy to grow by 6-7% yet the companies in your portfolio would grow at a minimum 20-25%. A few will grow by 40-50% CAGR for next 3-5 years. That’s serious growth folks. It’s only a matter of time before sanity comes back to the markets with eventual rerating of good stocks irrespective of small,mid or large caps.
4) When I go and speak to all the managments or visit the plants in person,it’s a complete different scenario. Everyone seems to be working over time. The order books are full,there’s more enquiries than ever,new employees are getting recruited,plants are being expanded-takes you to a different state of mind altogether. The idealogy remains simple,try to have that feel of lucrative business ownership and stock markets would automatically be a different place for you.
5) Avanti feeds adjusted everything moved from 7rs to 3000rs in a matter of 8 years. Nalanda capital swallowed a chunk of Page Industries during the era of 2007 at 600 bucks only to exit partly presently ar 25000 levels. Symphony moved from 2rs to 1200 almost in the same period. Enough of listening this sob stories. It’s high time you avail the bragging rights by just simply staying put in the companies you own as long as their growth story is intact. With time,they can only make you richer.
Conclusion: It fascinates me to the core sensing so many of the gullible retailers who are happy locking their money in FDs for decades,generating absoloute post tax peanuts but refrains to give bit of time to the best wealth generation asset in the world. The good part is I or you require nothing in lieu but just time and patience to grow richer along with all this amazing partners. The bad part remains,some of you will see,read,understand everything yet will panic and sell it to your neighbours at the least of prices only to see them getting liberated at age of 40 Vs your liberation at grandpa age of 60. You want to be in which boat-I leave that choice to you peeps.
Btw: We will be shortly launching our SEBI registered subscription based Investment advisory thing which will include the stock recommendation service pertaining to the high quality-high potential small and midcaps. If it interests you,do put a mail to [email protected].
Regards,
Arun Mukherjee
SA Investment Advisors
