The GPU market is buoyed by Gaming, AI, and crypto. I am bearish on crypto. However, I am neutral/mildly bullish on gaming (VR/AR is the next wave of gaming), and I am extremely bullish on AI (computer vision, autonomous vehicles).

Assuming level 5 vehicular autonomy is reached first by big/unicorn tech (Waymo, Uber, Lyft, etc). It seems these companies have the leverage to poach talent and vertically integrate. Recent attempts to subvert Nvidia’s dominance in the GPU AI market include Google’s Tensor Processing Unit (TPU).

My point is that the majority of deep learning efforts take place in the cloud (AWS, Azure, GCP). It seems Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are highly incentivized to develop their own processing units for AI. Upon doing so, they could potentially push Nvidia out of the cloud by undercutting compute costs using their own hardware.

Thoughts?

* Disclaimer: I own Nvidia shares.