NCDEX Feb Soybean jumps Higher for the second consecutive day after trade body cuts soybean production by nearly 10 lakh tonnes to 83.5 lakh tonnes (lt) for 2017/18 crop. According to latest SOPA estimates, soy bean carryover stock is 13 lt, which is added to the crop size of 83.5 lt, thereby making the overall availability of the oilseed at 96.5 lt. Between October 2017 and January 2018, the overall arrivals stood at 53 lt, with crushing of 38 lt, direct use of 1.18 lt and meal exports of 7.05 lt. Soybean stock with farmers, traders and mills is estimated at 45.32 lt as of January.
Mustard Apr futures closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering by market participants tracking improved physical demand by the oil mills. The support is also from estimation of lower production in coming rabi season. Mustard acreage is down 5% on year at 66.7 lakh ha due to poor returns in the last one year. Mustard acreage in Rajasthan, the largest grower, was at 21 lakh ha in 2017-18, down 25.4% from a year ago. Rajasthan accounts for over 70% of the country’s total mustard production. The state farm department has also estimated smaller mustard crop at 32 lakh tn in 2017-18 against, down 16% from a year ago.
Government has slashed the base import price of crude soy oil by $5 per tonnes to $822. The government revises base import prices every fortnight based on the global prices and changes in foreign exchange rates. The prices were last revised on Jan 15.
Malaysian Palm Oil rose to a one-week high on Wednesday on anticipation of improved exports in the current month as prices have been lower. Moreover, the prices have been under pressure due to higher stockpiles of palm oil are also pressurizing prices and are unlikely to see strong gains until stockpiles start to reduce. Malaysia’s palm oil shipments in January fell 8-9% from a month earlier, according to data from two cargo surveyors.
CPO futures may trade sideways tracking weak International prices and good physical demand in the domestic market. However, higher stocks and cut in base import prices by the govt. for second half of January may keep prices in a range.
ICE cotton futures slipped to a seven-week low on Wednesday on anticipation of higher cotton production ahead of the release of the U.S. government’s monthly supply-demand report. The International Cotton Advisory Committee currently estimates that the world cotton production will total 25.51 mt in 17/18, 2.53 mt larger than 16/17. Ending stocks are only estimated to increase 0.14 mt to 18.88 mt. Moreover, Speculators reduced their net long position in cotton for the first time in 11 weeks in the week to Jan. 30, cutting their positions by 19,534 lots to 95,586 lots.
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