2020-01-22 20:04
In recent years, Apple (AAPL) bulls have argued that the company is morphing from a seller of technology hardware to a software and services business, which should result in a meaningful inc… Read More
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Blog | Peridot Capital Management Llc Blog
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A stock market and investing blog written by the Founder/President of Peridot Capital Management
2020-01-17 18:22
When the Howard Hughes Corporation (HHC) was spun off from General Growth Properties during its bankruptcy process in late 2010 it was an underfollowed, relatively unknown collection of unre… Read More
2020-01-16 15:15
As the new year has begun the same way the prior one ended (a slow melt-up in stock prices without much in the way of concern from any corner of the market), I can’t help but get the f… Read More
2020-01-10 16:30
Press reports this week indicating that online food delivery operation GrubHub (GRUB) was exploring strategic alternatives, including a possible sale or merger, jump-started the stock but no… Read More
2019-12-04 20:51
As a fundamentally and valuation driven investor, I am continuously amazed at some of the equity valuations the public market bestows on growth companies, even in an age of near-zero interes… Read More
2019-11-26 16:42
Thank you to everyone who submitted questions for this blog’s first ever “Reader Mailbag.” Below is the second half of this month’s 10 questions and answers. If you w… Read More
2019-11-14 19:38
Thank you to everyone who submitted questions for this blog’s first ever “Reader Mailbag” post. This month I will answer 10 reader questions, split across two separate post… Read More
2019-10-10 18:42
Although the equity market had a quick and violent negative reaction to the news that Charles Schwab (SCHW) would be proactive in driving online trading commissions down to zero for the… Read More
2019-09-23 22:49
With media companies like Comcast, Apple, and Disney quickly mapping out their answers to Netflix and Prime Video the prices being paid for rights to stream old television programming are su… Read More
2019-08-26 18:48
It was just last year when the Nordstrom family explored a deal to take their retailing company private for $50 per share in cash. The board of Nordstrom (JWN) rejected the offer as insuffic… Read More
2019-08-15 18:41
As a valuation-based contrarian investor, it is relatively easy for me to make a strong case against allocating investment dollars to money-losing tech IPOs that pay out stock compensation e… Read More
2019-08-09 19:55
One of the things I try to do with this blog is highlight attractively priced securities that I might not have room for presently in client portfolios, but that warrant attention for value-o… Read More
2019-07-16 15:19
Back in May I outlined a fair value range for gaming operator Wynn Resorts (WYNN) that suggested upside to at least $155 per share, if not 10-20% higher. That thesis was predicated on a 12-1… Read More
2019-06-27 16:08
I was planning on writing a bullish piece on real estate developer Howard Hughes Corp (HHC) today, as the stock has been crushed in recent months and closed yesterday at $92.59 per share, 35… Read More
2019-06-20 17:02
First, there was cannabis seller Tilray (TLRY), which saw its stock price peak at $300 per share just a few months after a mid-2018 IPO that priced at $17. A buying frenzy among individual/r… Read More
2019-06-14 16:09
For several years until recently large cap technology companies were carrying the U.S. stock market on their backs. The nickname of FANG was even coined to describe the group, which included… Read More
2019-06-04 16:23
Mega cap technology companies are now facing heat as the federal government continues the process of investigating their market positions as it relates to antitrust/monopolistic issues. Some… Read More
2019-05-21 20:02
Hat tip to Upslope Capital for bringing this to people’s attention. It appears that do-it-yourself investors relying on tech platforms to invest need to be even more careful than some… Read More
2019-05-15 17:48
Just as U.S. investors are trying to make sense of the Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) IPOs, both disastrous for those buying at the offer prices, on Friday we will get a U.S. listing of Chinese… Read More
2019-05-10 12:37
A lot has been going on with Wynn Resorts (WYNN) since my last post about six months ago so I figured it was time for an update. In addition, I recently significantly increased long holdings… Read More
2019-04-03 18:01
Back in the tech bubble of the 1998-2000 era investors were left holding the bag because they paid up mightily for small, fast-growing companies that were losing money but promising dominant… Read More
2019-03-19 16:13
While technology giant Apple (AAPL) has not been a large holding at my firm for a long time, until recently my clients did have some residual shares with a very cost basis as a result of par… Read More
2019-03-08 19:15
There was a lot of talk on CNBC this week about the trailing 10-year returns of the S&P 500 index and what, if anything, they tell us about the duration of the current equity bull market… Read More
2019-02-11 17:33
It should not be surprising that hiring a veteran restaurant executive to replace an inexperienced founder will have a material impact on the business and its stock. Chipotle Mexican Grill (… Read More
2019-01-24 16:26
Don’t bother counting me in the camp that thinks they can predict when the next recession will hit. The current consensus from those who try to do such things seems to be sometime in 2… Read More
2019-01-16 15:30
There is a Target (TGT) store very close to my house that my family visits frequently. We even keep a shopping list on the fridge labeled “TGT” to simplify our trips.
Giv… Read More
2018-12-24 14:23
With the S&P 500 index now down roughly 18% from its peak reached about three month ago, for the first time in years it appears the U.S. stock market is severely oversold and pricing in… Read More
2018-12-18 16:02
Shares of healthcare giant Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) have come under pressure in recent days as media reports have once again resurface, suggesting that the company has potentially hid evide… Read More
2018-12-10 16:34
With S&P 500 profits set to come in around $157 for 2018, the trailing P/E ratio for the broad market index has fallen from 21.5x on January 1st of this year to 16.5x today. Surging earn… Read More
2018-11-20 14:41
Shares of Facebook (FB) are dropping below $130 today as the high-flying tech sector continues a sharp correction in the market.
After such a punishing drop, it is hard for me to look away… Read More
2018-11-08 16:17
Since I first wrote about gaming and hospitality company Wynn Resorts (WYNN) three and a half years ago the stock performance has been nothing short of an intense roller coaster. For a large… Read More
2018-10-30 14:01
For years investors have been clamoring for IBM (IBM) to transform their business via acquisition, as tech infrastructure moves to the cloud and away from IBM’s legacy businesses… Read More
2018-10-17 19:01
For all of the business model evolutions and technology-led disruptions throughout the service economy in recent memory, the 6% realtor sales commission (a truly obscene amount for higher pr… Read More
2018-10-10 17:05
Back in February I published the table below to show investors where the S&P 500 index would likely trade if interest rates normalized (10-year bond between 3% and 5% is how I defined it… Read More
2018-09-10 19:26
I have written enough about Wynn Resorts (WYNN) in recent years that much more in the way of commentary is likely unnecessary. Investors are once again getting a unique buying opportunity wi… Read More
2018-08-23 15:34
News that President Trump has asked the SEC to study the potential benefits of moving from quarterly to biannual financial reporting for public companies has stoked a debate as to the merits… Read More
2018-08-16 19:19
In the spirit of fashion, let me begin this article off with a runway of sorts, even if it is a lineup of stock charts rather than models.
Here is a chart of Michael Kors (KORS) stock… Read More
2018-08-10 21:33
Last October I wrote about the just-leaked CVS Health (CVS) bid for health insurance giant Aetna (AET) and tried to convey the notion that the move was about far more than just diversifying… Read More
2018-08-03 15:05
We hear a lot about the “FAANG” stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google/Alphabet) leading the S&P 500 higher in recent years, which is undeniably true, so I decided… Read More
2018-07-27 18:39
Shares of Facebook fell hard on Thursday after guiding investors to slower growth and falling operating margins going forward. Many FB bulls acted as this was a total shock (and obviously th… Read More
2018-07-12 15:38
I read a recent article in the Wall Street Journal entitled The Real Problem with Stock Buybacks (WSJ paywall) which spent a lot of time discussing multiple pitfalls of stock buybacks… Read More
2018-06-20 15:49
There is no doubt that the tech sector is where investors will find earnings growth in today’s market, and many money managers are willing to pay full valuations to stack their portfol… Read More
2018-06-12 15:16
I have not written about Biglari Holdings (BH) on this site since late 2014, but that does not mean the company has fallen off of my radar. While BH was once a prime long-term buy and hold c… Read More
2018-05-22 18:31
Some investors might have thought that last week’s Supreme Court decision that paves the way for legal sports betting in all 50 states would have resulted in skyrocketing stock prices… Read More
2018-05-07 20:33
It has been about five months since I outlined the valuation disconnect between the two leading consumer telecommunications providers in the United States in a post entitled Is the Enthusias… Read More
2018-04-20 18:53
I was underweighted bank stocks heading into the 2016 presidential election and proceeded to watch as they soared immediately following. I didn’t jump on the bandwagon because although… Read More
2018-04-11 13:58
With AT&T (T) and Time Warner (TWX) currently fighting in court to prevail over the federal government in its anti-trust lawsuit, all eyes in the merger arbitrage world are focused on wh… Read More
2018-03-27 14:50
There has been a lot of commentary in recent days about how user engagement will change, if at all, in the wake of Facebook’s user data privacy hiccups, as well as how advertisers will… Read More
2018-03-20 17:26
Facebook (FB) stock debuted less than six years ago at $38 per share and went through two very distinct sentiment shifts. The current environment, as the company faces pressure from multiple… Read More
2018-03-09 19:06
In the three months since my last post on Wynn Resorts (WYNN) a lot has happened. Steve Wynn has resigned as CEO and Chairman of the Board amid sexual misconduct allegations, long-time execu… Read More
2018-02-27 18:44
The U.S. stock market has been skittish lately, largely on fears of higher interest rates. As new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell takes over for Janet Yellen, and Congress passes multiple pieces… Read More
2018-02-21 19:16
Saying that shares of one-time market bellwether General Electric (GE) have fallen upon hard times lately is surely an understatement. To see a member of the 30-component Dow Jones Industria… Read More
2018-02-05 20:28
Back on Monday October 19, 1987, the Dow fell 508 points, which was a decline of more than 22% in a single day. Today that same decline equates to roughly 2%. With the Dow trading at such hi… Read More
2018-01-30 19:31
Valuing shares of Amazon (AMZN) has always been a difficult task since the company does not at all care about short-term profit margins. Investors are left with trying to estimate, based on… Read More
2018-01-19 19:12
Back in the second quarter of 2017 I wrote a four-part series of posts on the bricks and mortar retailing sector (Part 1: department stores – DDS & KSS | Part 2: mall own… Read More
2018-01-10 22:21
I do not spend a lot of time on cyclical stocks and the industrials and materials sectors are not well represented in portfolios I manage. Lack of expertise is one reason, but another tricky… Read More
2018-01-05 18:16
Frightening to think how many retail investors were in this one: Read More
2017-12-29 21:02
A client reached out to me after reading my past post regarding the media industry landscape to point out that Comcast and Charter, while both in the business of providing video, data, and v… Read More
2017-12-29 15:42
As we head into 2018, one of more interesting sectors among those I watch closely would have to be the media space. This year has seen a huge amount of deal activity (both discussed and comp… Read More
2017-12-14 18:55
While value investing in 2017 has not been an easy task, one constant bright spot in my managed accounts this year has been casino operator Wynn Resorts (WYNN), which has been on an absolute… Read More
2017-12-14 17:28
If you were an active investor back in the late 1990’s you probably remember what the climate was like during the dot-com bubble. All a company needed to do was issue a press release a… Read More
2017-12-12 16:06
We are not quite three months from my last piece on AutoZone (AZO), which back in mid September was in the midst of a nasty stock price decline, and now investors seem to feel a lot better a… Read More
2017-11-15 17:39
A year ago my local phone company, CenturyLink (CTL), announced a $34 billion deal to acquire Level 3 Communications (LVLT), one of the leading business communications carriers in the nation… Read More
2017-11-10 20:50
For decades the consumer staples sector was viewed by investors as a stable and predictable cash flow generator with above-average dividend yields and below-average volatility. In particular… Read More
2017-10-27 18:10
Financial journalists seem to have a pretty simple playbook these days. Most any retail-related corporate development is a direct result of Amazon (AMZN). Plain and simple. No questions aske… Read More
2017-09-26 14:43
It seems that data breaches are going to become the norm globally, if they have not already, so whenever a company is hit by hackers and the stock price declines as a result, I try to take a… Read More
2017-09-19 17:37
After a huge rally over the past five years, shares of auto parts retailer AutoZone (AZO) have taken a beating in recent months as investors fret over Amazon’s ability to become a full… Read More
2017-08-28 20:01
It has been a tough couple of years for shareholders of Gilead Sciences (GILD), the leader in treating HIV and Hepatitis C, or HCV. After shocking the biotechnology world by buying little kn… Read More
2017-08-24 19:54
Shares of cable operator Charter Communications (CHTR) have been on a roll lately, rising more than 50% during the last 12 months. You would think after such a big run that the company must… Read More
2017-08-14 21:15
Once seen as a very strong industry riding the secular trend of Americans moving away from cooking at home, the restaurant sector is starting to feel growing pains. With U.S. population grow… Read More
2017-07-27 16:55
It has been a little more than two months since my multi-part series on retailers highlighted the low valuations and negative sentiment on various companies, including department store chain… Read More
2017-07-21 14:33
For years I have wondered why Sears chose not to sell Craftsman tools on Amazon’s web site. It just seemed like an obvious move to monetize a brand name they owned, given that their ow… Read More
2017-07-13 15:11
At first glance you might very well think Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is having a hugely successful rebirth. Here is two-year chart of the semiconductor company’s stock price:
After… Read More
2017-07-07 20:47
It has been nearly three months since I wondered in writing whether anybody would step up and buy Whole Foods Market and a lot has happened since then. By now most people know that Amaz… Read More
2017-06-13 20:39
Last week we learned that the Nordstrom family, owners of roughly 30% of the large department store chain bearing their name, has begun the process of exploring a bid to take the retailer pr… Read More
2017-06-07 15:06
Can you name a retailer than has gone out of business without having any debt on their balance sheet? The common characteristic of the recent retailing bankruptcy announcements is highly lev… Read More
2017-05-25 17:59
Last week I discussed why I believe many of the traditional bricks and mortar retailers are mispriced based on cash flows, despite intense competition and the acknowledgement that U.S. retai… Read More
2017-05-19 15:28
As a value investor, it should not be surprising that I have been spending a lot of time on the retail and restaurant sector over the last year or so. The space has been pummeled by Wall Str… Read More
2017-05-11 15:15
Warren Buffett’s decision to invest a large sum in Apple (AAPL) in recent quarters was so surprising because he once regarded tech companies to be outside his so-called “circle o… Read More
2017-04-28 17:38
It has been about 18 months since Steve Wynn purchased more than 1 million shares of his own company’s stock, Wynn Resorts (WYNN), at prices in the low to mid 60’s. While he had… Read More
2017-04-13 21:06
Activist hedge fund Jana Partners has amassed an 8% stake in Whole Foods Market (WFM) and is urging them to work harder harnessing strategies to maximize operational efficiencies and also te… Read More
2017-03-31 17:20
There is little doubt that the technology sector is so dynamic today that investors trying to identify the big winners of the next decade or two are probably correct to be engaging in such a… Read More
2017-03-22 13:52
Just when I thought the restaurant sector was dead on Wall Street, we see that fast casual, Canadian-born Freshii (FRII.TO) has pulled off an impressive IPO, offering shares recently at $11… Read More
2017-03-09 17:48
For decades legendary investor Warren Buffett refused to buy technology stocks. He missed the huge bull market in the mid to late 1990’s and people repeatedly questioned his decision i… Read More
2017-03-03 01:00
In the face of the current highly ebullient stock market, close watchers of valuation metrics are frequently dismissed as ignoring the prospect for accelerating GDP growth and lower corporat… Read More
2017-02-24 19:02
Put me in the camp that thinks the death of bricks and mortar retail stores is being greatly exaggerated. It is true that e-commerce is here to stay, but people seem to forget that most of t… Read More
2017-02-10 15:58
We see this happen so many times. A hot brand new technology hardware company with a cool new product decides to cash in via an IPO. All is good for a little while and then Wall Street&rsquo&hell…Read More
2017-02-03 19:34
Shares of fast casual chain Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) are holding above $400 per share recently as investors cling to hopes that a full recovery is taking shape after e coli outbreaks hal… Read More
2017-01-27 15:51
Pop Quiz:
Do all technology companies expense stock-based compensation in their financial statements? Perhaps more importantly, do sell-side analysts include such expenses in their quarterly… Read More
2017-01-25 15:37
How about that? Dow 20,000! What a hugely important milestone! Right? Well, not really.
Sure it will make for a good front page story in USA Today tomorrow, and those few humans who are stil… Read More
2017-01-05 22:25
Please excuse the technical difficulties this site has experienced lately. After some adjustments everything should be back up and running smoothly. As such, I am hopeful that posting freque… Read More
2016-12-09 17:18
With the U.S. stock market having rallied 5% since Election Day, many investors are very enthusiastic about President-Elect Trump’s clear agenda of filling his Cabinet with wealthy bus… Read More
2016-12-05 12:22
In 2014 I invested in Amazon.com (AMZN), much to the bewilderment of many of my clients. Even though the stock had fallen from more than $400 to below $300 per share, the consensus view was… Read More
2016-11-09 13:02
It is reasonable to expect that the financial markets will see an increase in volatility over the coming months as folks try to decipher exactly how a Trump presidency will look, feel… Read More
2016-10-19 15:49
I have been an avid long-term investor in the restaurant space for nearly two decades. I think my first food investment was Panera Bread Company (PNRA), which I was very familiar with d… Read More
2016-10-13 13:29
As more and more people have adopted a healthier diet, natural and organic specialty grocery stores like Whole Foods Market (WFM) are finding that competition is catching on to the trend. Wh… Read More
2016-09-14 15:44
I have written previously about how I do not find shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) very compelling in the 400’s and recently we learned that Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman h… Read More
2016-08-16 14:23
I miss the old days of tech investing. Times were simpler. Companies were more focused. There were one or two companies that tended to be dominant within a certain fragment of the industry… Read More
2016-07-29 12:36
Is there a bubble in fast casual restaurants in the United States? More specifically, is the burger chain craze starting to look a little frothy? Chipotle (CMG) announced this week that it i… Read More
2016-07-22 14:48
The “we can do no wrong since we already got people sick” trading patterns in shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) are continuing unabated after the company reported second qua… Read More
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