2023-09-28 13:16
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Paper Economy - A Us Real Estate Bubble Blog
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A Blog dedicated to tracking the decline of the greatest asset bubble in US history.
2023-02-13 14:22
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today! For one brief moment at the 2022 Jackson Hole symposium, we got a glimpse of what a Fed Ch… Read More
2022-11-28 17:44
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today!For roughly the last 15 years the Fed’s reckless “easy money” zero interest ra… Read More
2022-10-17 17:12
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today!They say that the Federal Reserve’s policy action works with a lag but what simple maxim w… Read More
2022-08-30 16:16
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today!Today’s release of the Federal Housing Finance Administration (FHFA) House Price Index ind… Read More
2022-07-14 15:14
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today!Once I lived the life of a millionaire Spending my money'n I did not care Carrying m… Read More
2022-07-11 17:31
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today!As the Fed’s rate tightening policy regime continues to put upward pressure on mortgage in… Read More
2022-07-06 16:51
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today!It’s time to face the facts, recession is here, not “officially” of course sin… Read More
2022-07-05 11:12
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today! One of the major differences between our current housing boom and the epic housing run-up… Read More
2022-06-29 21:48
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today!For the last few months now, I have been suggesting that the Fed needs to move the Fed Funds rat… Read More
2022-06-28 12:27
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today!Something stinks in jumbo mortgage-ville.For all of my adult life, the interest rate for jumbo l… Read More
2022-06-27 14:43
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today! Today’s release of the Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and… Read More
2022-06-22 12:39
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today!It is surprising how many macroeconomic commentators propagate the false notion that “quan… Read More
2022-06-18 20:50
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today!Arguably the most unique trait of the human condition is our unbridled inventiveness. Readi… Read More
2022-06-16 18:19
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today!It’s been so long since our last bout with entrenched inflation that many, if not most, Am… Read More
2022-06-15 21:28
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today!The following is the complete text of today’s FOMC statement with my comments inline:Overa… Read More
2022-06-13 17:33
Like this post? Consider subscribing to my Substack for additional insights and content today!When Ben Bernanke in 2004 (prior to his chairmanship but as a Fed governor) detailed his thought… Read More
2022-06-09 14:19
The Fed’s back is firmly against the wall and no amount of sanguine Fed-speak or modern monetary engineering is going to do anything to change that fact. Now is the time for acti… Read More
2022-06-07 12:38
Today, like 2007, the economic zeitgeist is marked by a palpable sense of significant headwinds and the uneasy feeling of oncoming disaster.True, the uncertainty and potential risks driving… Read More
2022-06-01 16:33
While the current administration struggles to figure out their position on inflation, forcing Treasury Secretary and former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen into an uncomfortable “me… Read More
2022-05-31 19:35
Today’s S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Report indicated that nationally, seasonally adjusted home prices increased a notable 2.55% in March rising a whopping 20.55%… Read More
2022-05-30 15:22
Financialization, as I have pointed out before, allows for some truly powerful dynamics that would not otherwise be available to market participants but, as the old comic book adage states… Read More
2022-05-27 20:05
Today’s release of the Personal Income and Outlays Report showed that personal income increased by $89.3 billion in April (rising 0.4% from March) while disposable personal income incr… Read More
2022-05-25 20:38
Today’s release of the FOMC meeting minutes shows that the Fed is still way behind the curve as they continue to characterize current inflation as a primarily transitory symptom &ldquo&hell…Read More
2022-05-24 15:48
Today’s release of the New Home Sales Report shows that housing is now firmly reflecting the negative effects of the quickly darkening economic conditions and sharply rising mortgage r… Read More
2022-05-23 17:24
Economist Herbert Stein's old adage that “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop", puts our current predicament into perspective perfectly. Our economy has been di… Read More
2022-05-18 19:00
Today’s release of the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) shows pretty clearly that financial conditions are quickly becoming stressed with the index reading 0.012… Read More
2022-05-16 16:00
Oh how the mighty have fallen! This current stock market rout, which by my reckoning has only just begun, is already taking a serious toll.The slightest earnings miss or forward guidan… Read More
2022-05-13 14:00
The most recent Primary Mortgage Market Survey® published by Freddie Mac® shows that mortgage rates are simply exploding higher with the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgag… Read More
2022-05-12 14:50
Looking a little deeper at today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report makes it pretty clear that our current bout of inflation is not only sustained, but placing a historic burden on co… Read More
2022-05-11 14:32
In a world awash in financialization, how is one to differentiate something from nothing?The home you live in seems pretty tangible; it's framed with wood and finished with sheet rock… Read More
2022-05-09 13:21
Mark Twain’s old adage that “History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” by my reckoning has never been more accurate with respect to the markets (both… Read More
2022-05-05 14:48
Its been quite a while since I posted to this blog! So long, that there is a good chance that some percent of my original readers from back in 2006 are already dead!Oh well… Read More
2017-08-08 18:28
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in July, net non-farm payrolls increased by 209,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 205,000 jo… Read More
2017-08-08 18:23
The latest employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed generally worsened in July.Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more increased to 1.785 million or 2… Read More
2017-08-08 18:16
The latest Employment Situation report showed that in July “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers went flat at 8.6% while the traditionally reported… Read More
2017-08-08 18:09
The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity improved in June with the index rising to a level of 0.13 from a w… Read More
2017-08-08 18:00
Recently, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in May, nationally, home prices increased 0.39% from Apr… Read More
2017-08-08 17:50
The latest release of the S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for May reported that the non-seasonally adjusted National index increased from April with prices rising 0… Read More
2017-08-08 17:19
Recently, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for June showing a decline with total home sales falling 1.8% since May but climbing 0.7% above… Read More
2017-06-03 00:38
Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in May, net non-farm payrolls increased by 138,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 147,000 jobs w… Read More
2017-06-03 00:31
Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed generally worsened in May.Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more increased to 1.663 million or 24.0%… Read More
2017-06-03 00:19
Today's Employment Situation report showed that in May “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers declined to 8.4% while the traditionally reported unemp… Read More
2017-06-03 00:13
Today's release of the S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for March reported that the non-seasonally adjusted National index increased from February with prices rising… Read More
2017-04-27 21:29
Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for March showing an notable decline in sales activity with the seasonally adjusted national index… Read More
2017-04-27 00:04
The National Association of Realtors nearly immediately met today's Trump administration tax reform policy announcement with outright rejection suggesting that the proposed changes were plac… Read More
2017-04-25 21:07
Today's release of the S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for February reported that the non-seasonally adjusted National index increased from January with prices risin… Read More
2017-04-25 20:54
Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in February, nationally, home prices increased 0.79% from J… Read More
2017-04-25 20:41
Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for March showing an increase with sales rising 5.8% from February climbing 15.6% above the level see… Read More
2017-03-10 18:04
Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in February, net non-farm payrolls increased by 235,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 227,000 j… Read More
2017-03-10 17:59
Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed generally improved in February.Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined to 1.801 million or 2… Read More
2017-03-10 17:53
Today's Employment Situation report showed that in February “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers declined to 9.2% while the traditionally reported… Read More
2017-02-15 19:49
Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing worsening results in January with total industrial production falling 0… Read More
2017-02-15 19:39
Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing increasing activity in January with sales rising 0.4% from December climbing 5.6% on a year-over-y… Read More
2017-02-15 17:48
Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that overall assessments of housing activity generally worsened in Febru… Read More
2017-02-03 19:26
Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in January, net non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 237,000 jo… Read More
2017-02-03 19:19
Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed went flat in January.Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more increased to 1.850 million or 24.4% of a… Read More
2017-02-03 19:12
Today's Employment Situation report showed that in January “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers increased to 9.4% while the traditionally reported… Read More
2017-01-31 12:37
Yesterday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for December showing an improvement in sales activity with the seasonally adjusted national ind… Read More
2017-01-06 16:57
Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in December, net non-farm payrolls increased by 156,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 144,000 j… Read More
2017-01-06 16:49
Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed went flat in December.Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined to 1.831 million or 24.2% of a… Read More
2017-01-06 16:43
Today's Employment Situation report showed that in December “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers decreased to 9.2% while the traditionally reported… Read More
2016-12-23 17:43
The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity worsened in November with the index falling to a contraction level… Read More
2016-12-23 17:25
Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for November showing an increase with sales rising 5.2% from October climbing 16.5% above the level s… Read More
2016-12-02 18:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in November, net non-farm payrolls increased by 178,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 156,00… Read More
2016-12-02 18:22
The latest employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed improved in November.Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined to 1.856 million or 24.8% of… Read More
2016-12-02 18:16
The latest Employment Situation report showed that in November “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers decreased to 9.3% while the traditionally repor… Read More
2016-11-30 21:08
Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for October showing an improvement in sales activity with the seasonally adjusted national index ri… Read More
2016-11-30 21:03
Today, private staffing and business services firm ADP released the latest installment of their National Employment Report indicating that the situation for private employment in the U.S. im… Read More
2016-11-30 20:49
The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for September reported that the non-seasonally adjusted National index decreased from August with prices falling 0.37%… Read More
2016-11-30 20:28
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average in… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:27
The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 142,000… Read More
2016-11-07 17:21
The latest employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed generally went flat in October.Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more increased to 1.979 million… Read More
2016-11-07 17:16
The latest Employment Situation report showed that in October “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers decreased to 9.5% while the traditionally report… Read More
2016-10-21 17:08
This week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for September showing an increase with total home sales rising 3.2% since August climbing 0.6%… Read More
2016-10-21 16:59
This weeks’s jobless claims report showed a notable increase to initial and a modest increase to continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained well below… Read More
2016-10-21 16:52
This week's New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results with total permit activity rising 6.3% since August while total starts declined a notable 9.0% over the same pe… Read More
2016-10-21 16:44
This week, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing slightly improving results in September with total industrial production… Read More
2016-10-21 16:44
This week, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that overall assessments of housing activity generally worsened in O… Read More
2016-09-15 20:01
Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing weakening results in August with total industrial production declining 0… Read More
2016-09-15 19:49
Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing worsening activity in August with sales falling 0.3% from July but rising 1.9% on a year-over-year… Read More
2016-09-15 19:29
The September release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated improvement of the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index ri… Read More
2016-09-15 19:23
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey consists of a series of diffusion indices distilled from a monthly survey of New York regional manufacturing executives and seeks to identify trends acr… Read More
2016-09-15 19:14
Today’s jobless claims report showed modest increases to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained well below the 300K level. Season… Read More
2016-09-09 13:11
Yesterday, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Non-Manufacturing Report on Business indicating that service related business activity worsened notably in August with th… Read More
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