Quote from: Colbster on October 05, 2014, 11:27:05 PM
There will come a time (if this observation proves true) where the expected return turns negative if we shift the ratios. For instance, if after 15 spins, we have 3 repeats and 9 singles, our bet is 12 units for a possible +24 (+35 - 11 losers). If we shift the number of potential numbers left to hit down by the number of repeats, there are really only 34 possible outcomes. We take 12/34 * 24 for our expected wins and get 8.471. We have 22/34 * -12 for our expected losses and get -7.765, netting us 0.71. We have better than even odds that we will be positive at the end of all this. This would be our cue to start betting on all 12 of the units for the remainder of the 37-Spin series.[/color]The above in maroon, is when you will win, with flat bet, the only part is, what winnings you are going to take? if using £1 units, i'd stop as soon as +£24 is reached.
Prior to this spin (which I am claiming as a repeat for the sake of this argument), we had 2 repeats and 10 singles. With only 2 repeats, there are the potential for 35 unique numbers. 12/35 * 24 gives us 8.229 and 23/35 * -12 gives us -7.886 for a net +0.34. We could also have played beginning with this spin and would have had a win as indicated above.
If the spin before this was also a repeat and we had 1 repeat and 11 singles to this point, our math changes to 12/36 * 24 and 24/36 * -12, or 0. At this point, we were neutral and there was no justification for a bet. Anything before this would have been neutral or negative prior to the repeat. I think that with some basic tracking, we can identify the exact spin where our expectations move from negative to neutral to positive. I'm working a spreadsheet now to test by hand, but I bet there is a simple mathematical equation that could solve the dilemma for us with less hoopla to just indicate if we are positive or negative on expectation.
Don't believe, i'd suggest you test and soon as 12non-hit are left start flat betting.
Remember Nottophammer told you this