As the countdown to the US presidential elections begins, questions arise about the weight of the Arab and Muslim bloc and its voting trends, and whether Democrats They are really afraid of losing those voters who are angry about supporting the president's administration Joe Biden For war on Gaza and Lebanon
According to what Newsweek magazine published – Wednesday – some Democrats are warning that Muslim and Arab voters are distancing themselves from the Vice President and the Democratic presidential candidate. Kamala Harris In the final weeks before the elections scheduled for November 5th.
At the same time, the New York Times – which spoke with more than 30 Arab and Muslim voters, activists, imams and officials in the state of Michigan – reports that there are indications that this bloc may deprive Harris of some important votes because of their anger at the absolute American support for Israel.
Demographics and influence
Muslims and Arabs do not constitute a large percentage of the United States population, but their presence in a number of… States Which is crucial to the presidential race, making them a significant voting bloc, especially in the state of Michigan, which has always been a battleground for fierce electoral battles that are decided by very narrow margins.
The number of Arab Americans of all religions and sects is estimated at about 3.7 million, according to calculations of the Arab American Institute, a private research institution, while the total population is 337 million people.
As for American Muslims, their number is estimated at about 4.45 million people, and they constitute a very diverse community in its origins and ethnicities.
The Pew Research Center expects that the number of Muslims in the United States will reach 8.1 million by 2050, constituting 2.1% of the total population and representing the second largest religion in the country after Christianity.
Decisive Michigan
In the 2020 elections, Joe Biden won the state of Michigan in his favor, with a difference of less than 155,000 votes over his then rival, the Republican president. Donald Trump.
In these elections, in which Trump and Harris are competing, it is expected that the Michigan battle will be decided by a narrow margin as well.
Here lies the importance of the Arab and Muslim voice, especially since recent opinion polls show Harris leading Trump by only about two percentage points, a difference that falls within the margin of error of opinion polling institutions.
There are about 206,000 registered Muslim voters in Michigan, most of them concentrated in the Detroit area, according to the Emage Foundation, which announced its support for Harris.
Emgage CEO Wael Al-Zayat told Newsweek that given the closeness between the candidates, a handful of votes could be influential.
Al-Zayat stated that registered Muslim voters in Michigan voted for Biden in 2020 by approximately 70%, indicating that any significant decrease in this percentage may cost the Democrats this election.
Anger and punishment
With the escalation of anger over American support for Israel, as the war on Gaza enters its second year,…Genocide For the Palestinians, according to what international experts describe, without stopping the American air and sea bridge that supplies Israel with thousands of tons of ammunition and lethal weapons, more Arab and Muslim voters distance themselves from the democratic camp.
The New York Times reviewed examples of these voters who say they will vote either for Trump or a “third party.â€
Among them is Cyrine Hijazi (28 years old), who belongs to the large Lebanese community in Michigan and has long described herself as a Democrat.
Sirin says she doesn't care about Trump, but at the same time she can't bring herself to endorse Harris. She confirms that she is pained when she thinks that the weapons sent by the United States threaten the lives of members of her family.
She continues, “I feel very guilty,†stressing that many Arab Americans also feel guilty because here in the United States they live in safety while their tax money kills their relatives and loved ones.
Cyrine explained that she tends to elect Thanks Jill Green Party candidate who supports Palestinians and their rights.
The New York Times indicated that the Arab community was angry after the killing of Kamel Ahmed Jawad, a resident of the city Dearborn In Michigan, in one of the Israeli raids on Lebanon last week.
Harris's latest attempts
On the other hand, the Harris campaign seems keen to regain the support of those angry at American support for Israel, and has made several attempts recently to mend relations with Muslim and Arab voters.
Last Friday, the Democratic candidate met with figures from the Arab and Muslim community in Flint, Michigan, as part of her election campaign.
A Harris campaign official said that during the meeting – which lasted half an hour – she expressed her concern about the extent of the suffering in Gaza, civilian casualties and displacement in Lebanon, and added that she also discussed efforts to end the war and prevent a broader war in the Middle East.
The CEO of the EMIG Foundation, Wael Al-Zayat, stated that the participants in the meeting expressed their extreme disappointment in the way the United States dealt with this crisis, and called on the Vice President to do everything in her power to end the war and reset American policy in the region.
On the other hand, leaders from the “Non-Committed†movement against the Israeli war on Gaza said that they were not invited to the meeting, while James Zogby, founder of the Arab American Institute and a longtime member of the Democratic National Committee, said that he rejected the invitation to attend the meeting.
Ali Dagher, an American lawyer of Lebanese origin and one of the American leaders of Arab origin, said, “Harris will lose the state of Michigan. I will not vote for Kamala Harris, and no one I know will vote for her. I do not find anyone in (my community) who supports her.â€
Harris constantly asserts that she will always work to ensure “Israel's ability to defend itself,†and has ruled out any step to withhold American weapons from Israel.
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