The pre-election exit polls suggested that two major parties will have equal number of vote share, that is 43% for BJP and Congress, each. With an end to the second phase of voting today, various agencies have already crunched together numbers to predict the idea of what the results could be like. The results of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections will be declared on December 18th, but the exit polls may hint us about the directions in which winds will blow.
The first five exit polls indicate a clear inclination towards the saffron party, while they are also tipped to win back Himachal Pradesh from Congress. Most exit polls suggest a prediction of more than 100 seats for BJP in Gujarat, which is a comfortable win considering the 92-seat benchmark in 182 seats state. Times Now-VMR polls suggest BJP seems getting 109 seats out 182 seats in Gujarat, while Congress is expected to get 70 seats and other 3. Sahara is predicting 110-120 seats for BJP and 65-75 seats for Congress. Republic TV predicts 108 seats for the BJP and 74 for the Congress.
So, what exactly will happen in Gujarat, 2017? The table contains our forecast based on opinion polls, different models, and different assumptions. All indicators suggest the following big conclusion — it will be a mega upset if the BJP were to lose Gujarat. It would be a major surprise if the BJP got less than 105 seats. But one thing is clear that winning 150 seats, as Amit Shah predicted, has the same non-zero chance as the BJP winning less than 100 seats does. While if the saffron party wins with less than 100 seats, it will be seen as having lost the elections. Make no mistakes – Gujarat elections are important, particularly for Congress, because a close fight will signal its revival – even if they don’t win, and it will signal it will signal BJP that a single handed persona is no longer dominate to get votes.