My vacation is finally over:) It will be good to get my mind back in gear handicapping. Its been a tough stretch for me, from handicapping every day of the week to cold turkey. Not from a money standpoint as I do this as a hobby but merely because it is a routine I have been in for over 20 years now.
Who would have thought sports would be shut down for this long. And we are still not out of the woods. I have no idea where the SJW activity of the NFL and the NBA is going to take the sports. There is a lot of talk about the massive boycotts of sports.
The only thing one can do is go with the flow and handicap the games and whatever happens happens.
As far as any influence this might have on the outcome of the games. I suspect it will have some influence but it will be player dependent. Its a variable I might look at later but for now, you would just be guessing. So I will handicap without taking that into account.
MLB plays start tomorrow with the Overnights for Thursday’s opening games. There are only two games so I would not expect much tomorrow but we start the full slate of games on Friday. Things will pick up very fast.
As you recall, I sent out overnight plays early afternoon the day before the games. Overnights are on both Sides and Totals. Then on the day of the game, I am back to my usual handicapping methods. Almost all of the profit however has been in the overnight plays.
So, You need to have at least 1 book that puts out overnight lines on baseball. Preferably two. In addition the earlier the better.
Myself, I can get down as soon as they are released as I have an arrangement with a book who follows my plays. But for those that are not as fortunate, there are online books that get the lines out pretty fast. If you live in Vegas there are several casinos that put out the overnight lines almost as fast as the offshore books.
I have been asked again about the NFL Super contest. I have not decided what I am going to do this year. When I do I will let everyone know. Its still six weeks away from the start of the NFL season.
Now is a good time to look over the last few years of MLB and see where the profit has been:
Last year we ended up +13.7 Units in MLB
1/2 Unit Sides -1.27 Units
1/2 Unit Totals -.5 Units
1 Unit Totals +6.24 Units
1 Unit overnight Sides +1.79 Units
1 Unit overnight Totals +7.44 Units
We had 400+ plays for the season.
It was a busy season, and even with that many plays, the drawdown during the season was minimal. Top to bottom was no more than 10 to 15 units. That is quite remarkable actually. I would expect it to be close to 30 units.
The year before that we ended up +14.43 Units
1 Unit Sides -4.94 Units
1/2 Unit Sides -2.405 Units
1/2 Unit Totals -.015 Units
1 Unit Totals +10.5 Units
1 Unit Overnight sides +13.3 Units
1 Unit Overnight Totals -2.01 Units
We had about 350 Plays for the season
You can see all the records for the last 3 or 4 years at
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10AkTqdb-ikYsN6qaTXTX7w9PgQaW6IvNukLGokgch6M/edit#gid=0
If you wish to go back further then that you can see them on the website.
The Regular season is going to be 60 games in MLB. So its a short season and that will be the outcome less certain. But I am still going to give the 50% refund if I cannot produce a winning season in MLB regular season. So we will see where we stand at the end of the 60 games.
The only requirement is you are subscribed from day 1 until the last day of the season. I have been doing this now for 4 years and so far have not had a losing season:)
I would like to move over to Slack as much as I can as it makes it much easier to send out the plays. However, I will still send them out via twitter, email, SMS, and maybe skype. I will wait to see how many people on skype switch to slack. It is much faster, and you have a lot of options on where you want the messages relayed to.
If anyone has any questions please let me know.
If you wish to sign up, just go to my web site: http://rickjshandicappingpicks.com . Choose the PayPal menu and subscribe. I will get you up and running shortly after you sign up.
One other thing, Its always good after a long break like this to read again the required reading section of the site and the FAQ section. Never hurts to remind yourself of some of the important things in handicapping.
Good Luck To all!
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.com
The post MLB plays will be out tomorrow for the overnights!!! Also a recap of the last 2 years in MLB. appeared first on Rickj's Handicapping Picks.
