The Stock Market is blasting off today with the indexes up somewhere between 7 and 8 percent. They liked The President’s messaging, The Feds response, and the likelihood the Congress is going to finally pass some kind of bill.
That will be an influx of money into the country unseen before. In addition, the Treatment the President has been talking about for over a week is working in many different countries. So much so, both drugs are being mass-produced and should be available shortly.
The only thing that has not changed is the media. But that will never change. I just do not listen to them. A friend called me up to tell me what he heard on CNN this morning, and I politely told him I had no interest in anything cable news outlets had to say. And that includes most of the people at Fox.
Hysteria generated fear is going to be here to stay. The last thing they want is for Trump to get this country moving again. They know it’s their last hope at beating him in November. The media has been hijacked, it has ceased being the media.
As far as this rally, my thought is the downside is still a big risk. This euphoria we are seeing most likely will not last for more then a few days if that. But I think we may have seen the worst of the slide. We will see.
The new CDC numbers are out:
Deaths as of today: 544
This is nothing. It’s not even worth talking about. But do not take my word for it. I just listened to an interview with one of the leading Microbiologists in the world:
It’s worth your time to listen to it, as it gives a clear-eyed view of the coronavirus. This is what you should be listening to, not cable news pundits.
Essentially he says the biggest tragedy is the way the countries are dealing with it rather than the virus itself. But he gives his logic and some very good insight.
Now, I cannot say this enough, the hysteria surrounding this is media-induced. They have an agenda. Truth is the furthest thing in their mind. As an example, one of the big stories yesterday is that a lady died yesterday taking the drug that President Trump had recommended at home.
But with just a little investigation it turns out what she took was an aquarium cleaner. Now, the press knew that was true, but they tried to go with the story anyway. I do not think I have ever seen it this bad.
Another example is when the President suggested it the press all in unison said how crazy he was, but, Cuomo in NY start trials using the exact same drug Trump had suggested. The press: How great Cuomo was for trying this.
Now I do not care whether you are a Republican or a Democrat.I could care less who you support for President. But the media in this country is reprehensible. And if you support what they are doing, you have gone off the deep end. That is what I call a given:)
Back to the markets, I have not made any new trades, but Thursday is rapidly approaching. I plan on putting on my 5 or 6 short put sales on Thursday. I have had quite a few people sign up. If you have not, just look back to the last post and it explains how you can get these.
Lastly the update on the political odds:
Biden 84/16 – 3 Pts
Sanders 4/96 +1 Pts
Clinton 5/95 Unchanged
Cuomo 5/95 New entry
Nothing has changed. Cuomo is on the radar now. Will be interesting to see how they pull that one off:)
Dem VP Nomination:
Harris 29/71 – 1 Pt
Klobuchar 27/73 -1 Pts
Abrams 12/88 -1 Pt
Warren 9/91 -1 Pt
Whitmer: 5/95 New entrant
I do not have any opinion at all on these. Harris, however, would be a mistake. Biden already has California. It would be a waste of a VP pick. Also when a new name pops on the list, you should pay attention.
Trump 47/53 + 1 Pt ( Right where I made my wager on Trump)
Biden 44/56 – 3 Pts
Right now a tossup. I like Trump at a tossup.
Control of the Presidency: Dems 54/46 -1 Pt
Again I believe the value is in the Republicans
Control of the House:
75/25 Democrats: No Change ( I took the 3 to 1 this morning)
I like the Republicans here. I rate it a tossup whether they regain the House.
Although the better wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”
Control of the Senate:
55/45 in favor of the Republicans No Change
That is a large drop in this category. I still am laying off this wager. The Senate Republicans seem to be trying to lose. Collins, Graham are both taking positions that could cost them in November. But the line is getting to an area that is attractive.
Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 84/16 – 4 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1
Then numbers I see this weekend still to me make it close whether the U.S. will fall into a recession. Getting 4 to 1 gives me a nice cushion on the wager.
One wager I am watching for is Collins vs Loeffler. I want to get down on Collins. I liked him before Loeffler imploded with her stock trades, but now the price might be too high. Anything close to even money would be a gift.
A new one I am watching that just popped up:
When will the Senate pass the CARES Act:
March 24th 31/69
March 25th 56/44
March 26th 15/85
March 27th 10/90
I have not been following it that close, but if I had to choose without knowing anything I would take 9 to 1 on March 27th. Just because typically they drag it out as long as they possibly can. I doubt they will let it go into next week
That’s it for today, Let’s see if this rally can continue tomorrow.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
The post Monster Stock Rally, Coronavirus fears, media induced panic, A real experts thoughts, Updated Political Odds. My thoughts for Wednesday appeared first on Rickj's Handicapping Picks.