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NFL Picks

In the dining room of the Las Vegas Margaritaville, Pappy poses with a friend.  And no, Pappy didn’t get any splinters.

Pappy likes to ride the monorail to Margaritaville, where he then orders their “Cheeseburger in Paradise.”  Vegas is "Sin City," and at his advanced age, eating meat is Pappy's greatest sin   Considering that Pappy is a fanatical flexitarian, a burger is truly sinful.

November 2012 and again December 2014 our old Pappy almost died from Vietnam War related injuries.  Needless to say his football predictions for those years were incomplete.  Should you visit this site for his picks and find none for that week, Pappy's either laid up in bed, in a hospital, or . . . (cough)  Well, we hope you understand, will return for an update.   

Most picks are ATS (against the spread) as posted on the COVERS.COM website. A clickable link to Covers is at the bottom of this article.  If you can't get the odds from Covers try the Westgate Supercontest or the Las Vegas Insider.  Clickable links are at the bottom of this article.

ACRONYMS    YTD = Year To Date    ATS = Against The Spread

;) = Beat the Spread      ;( = Did not Beat the Spread

Bear Bryant once said "Offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships."  Over time, that quote morphed into, "Offense wins games, but defense wins championships."  Keep that in mind while making your picks for this year's Superbowl.

Okay, what we’re going to do here is post our SUPERBOWL picks, then below that we’ll add an explanation.



So what we’re predicting here is that the Panthers will win the game, but the Broncos will beat the spread.

That’s the way our old Pappy’s placing his investment in this year’s Superbowl.

So >>>>> let’s say Pappy put a grand on the Panthers straight up, and puts another grand on the Broncos to beat the spread. . .

If the Panthers win and the Broncos beat the spread, Pappy wins something like $3780.  That amount depends on the vigorish (vig) at the casino and Pappy’s overhead.

If you haven’t read our bit on overhead, scroll down a ways and read it.  If you’ve never owned a business, maybe it’ll enlighten you as to the cost of investing in sports matchups.

Anyway, if the Panthers win and beat the spread, Pappy will win $1980.  Won’t get all his money back, but close enough.

And if the Broncos win and beat the spread, Pappy will win $1980.  Won’t get all his money back, but close enough.

Now in addition to your overhead (plus vig.), there’s another variable to consider here.  Your overhead and vig. on the spread should be pretty uniform no matter what casino you go to.  However, the vig. on your straight up investment can vary quite a bit, depending upon the particular casino.

Our old Pappy, he really doesn't care about money that much.  But he is a bit of a risk taker and likes to have fun.  So, given the above investments, it's likely he could lose maybe $20.    So the over/under on this Superbowl is 44.5 points.  Given the defenses of the two teams involved, just for fun, Pappy put $50 on the under.

As we’ve stated previously, regular season games you should invest according to your brain, not your heart.  

But playoff games and the Superbowl, you should kick back, go with your feelings (heart), enjoy the sport as it’s meant to be enjoyed. 

During the regular season, given luck has nothing to do with our picks, we usually sign off on our weekly picks with a           NAMASTE. 

But this time we’ll sign off with a  GOOD LUCK!!!!!



The following is culled from this article as published earlier in the season.

For the playoffs we suggest you do what we do; suggestion follows:

During the regular season it's all about logic.  We spend hours perusing spreadsheets, acquiring new data, consulting with other tipsters, etc..

Now  it's time to change course.

All season long we've been saying "Use your brain not your heart."

 Kick back, enjoy the sport as a regular fan this week.  Go with your heart, not your brain.  Support your favorite teams  Have some fun.  You deserve it.


We’ve been told by many of our readers that they do not rely on us for their picks.  They get their picks from other cappers; some of my readers even do their own calculations to get their picks.

Then said readers use the following strategy or some variation thereof:  They compare our picks to the ones they already have.  Where we agree, they increase their investment.  Where we disagree, they use their own judgment as to what to do with the pick, or if uncertain, they drop the pick from that week's list.  Where we state no opinion on a pick they have, they keep said investment where it stands.

The above seems to us to be a sound strategy.  The important factor to us here is that our readers use us to BEAT THE BOOKS!!!!!


 We get WUNDERDOG'S  weekly free pick.  Wunderdog is the only free pick source we've found to be accurate more than 55% of the time over the entire season. 

Click here for WUNDERDOG'S website

If you ask them, Wunderdog sends the free pick access link to your email address.


Pappy always goes on and on on and on about how important it is to be conservative with your NFL investments the first four or five weeks of the season –- that you’re lucky just to break even.

Pappy says don’t get too smug.  In years past (many years in Pappy’s case) good weeks for investing in the NFL were followed by terrible weeks.    In any case, never, ever invest more than one/quarter to one/third of your cash holdings, unless you are a working person who has a steady income with a portion that is disposable.


We have a lady in our group who runs our spreadsheet; she works directly under Pappy (cough). This lady has worked as an accountant for decades, and the last few years of her career she was one of the accountants in a casino.


Remember our warning: the first 4 to 5 weeks of the season, you're lucky to break even!!!!


The great majority of people investing in NFL games have no experience in operating a business.  Therefore, many of these people don’t calculate overhead into the cost of making their investments.

Now I haven’t done the math in a few years, but if I remember correctly, it used to be that to break even in Las Vegas casinos when investing in NFL games, you’d have to be at something like 54.3% correct with your picks.

This figure was before your overhead.  Overhead might include travel expenses, food, lodging, playing slots or whatever during breaks, giving your significant other money to gamble, etc..

That’s why I proclaim that “IF YOU KEEP YOUR OVERHEAD LOW” you must be at or above 55% correct in your picks to make a profit.

Those of you who might be skeptical of the above statement, I advise to look into the PREVIOUS YEAR’S HISTORIES of the  Westgate Supercontest.  All the previous winners had winning percentages in the 50 to 57 percent ranges.

Before I throw some figures at you, those of us into handicapping NFL matchups know that there’s usually only a few games each week that are worth the investment.

I cap the above at averaging around five games a week.

You’ll note that the Westgate Supercontest caps their entries at five games each week.

This is for the average over an ENTIRE season. For some weeks, if you’re any good, you’ll do 3 for 5 (60%).  Otherwise, you’ll do less than that.

So here comes the math to illustrate what it takes on any particular week to make a profit for that week.  Remember, our goal is >>> 55% <<< if you’re just investing in one particular week, or indeed, the entire season.

Picks won ATS / Total picks made   percentage made

1/1  100%
1/2  50%
2/3  67%
3/4  75%
3/5  60%
4/6  67%
4/7  57%
5/8  63%
5/9  56%
6/10 60% 
6/11 55% 
7/12 58%
7/13 54%
8/14 57%
8/15 53%
9/16 56%

Let’s say you’re investing over the entire season.  Assuming 80 regular season games invested, to be as good as the winning  handicappers in the WestGate Supercontest, you’d have to beat the spread in 44 games; maybe even a little more if you want to win the top spot.

Good Luck!! 

Yore [sic] Pappy

For a link to the Westgate Supercontest, scroll way down this article 'til you get to our LINKS section.


  If possible, one should avoid investing in marquee games.  Big games always attract recreational betters.  The spread takes advantage of that factor -- makes tons of money for the casinos.  If you must invest in marquee games, invest token amounts only.


We don't pick the preseason here.  But it's time for us to pass along to our readers what we've learned over the last 20 years of investing in NFL games.

The following comments were posted during previous seasons.  The advice is still applicable.

I’ve been told repeatedly by some of my readers that they don’t use us to get their picks!  They get their picks other handicappers, etc..  There are some of our readers who calculate their own picks independently.  Then my readers, they check out our picks.  Where we agree with them, they increase their investment.  Where we don’t mention their  pick, they reduce their investment.  Where we oppose their pick, they don’t invest. 

It's not at all important that  investors don’t use our picks except for the purpose mentioned above.  The only thing that matters is that ”YOU BEAT THE BOOKS!!”  

And always -- always keep this fact in mind.  The people who set the spread, they're really sharp.  And their customers are the casinos, not you!  The people who set the spread, they've got a buncha computers, technical staff, clerical staff, people who have been involved in sports investing for years an' years.  They get instantaneous feedback from the sportsbooks.  They get all the rumors long before you do.  And most importantly, from decades of experience, they know how to wring the maximum amount of money out of the public to keep their customers (the sportsbooks) happy!!!!!!!!   Never forget that.

The most important thing you can do is remember one of the prime dictates of guerrilla fighters.  "When the enemy advances, retreat.  When the enemy retreats, advance."

And here's some dictates from yore[sic] ol' Pappy.   Don't invest in the big marquee games.  Keep your ego in check.  Use your brain, not your heart.  Stay off bandwagons.       

What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.  And if you're an uninformed gambler who gambles with your heart, not your brain -- what stays in Vegas is your money!


Now, here’s another important aspect of sports investing you should to know.  Investing in NFL matchups, you need beat the spread only about 55% of the time to show a profit!

Don’t believe me?  Do the math!  Or, as an alternative, at the bottom of this article you’ll find a clickable link to the Westgate Supercontest.  Goto the  Supercontest site –- find their “Past Results” link. 

You’ll find previous investors in the money at an accuracy as low as 51%!  2012, one investor won over $400,000 with an accuracy of 57.5%!

So the next time you’re standing in some long line at a window of your favorite Nevada Sportsbook, and some character behind you is yappin’ about how he’s 60% or 70% or 80% or more accurate, turn around and ask him “Why aren’t you in the Supercontest?”

Here's another bit of advice:  Most persons investing in NFL games have no experience running any business.  So they have a tendency to not figure their overhead.  You need to subtract from your profits such things as transportation expense, food you buy at the casino, tips to the cocktail waitress, office supplies, computer and communications expense, etc..

If you or your significant other drop some cash into slot machines, make sure it's your personal money, not your NFL money.                                

And !!  There's no such thing as a lock!
And !!  Stay off of bandwagons! 


Click here for COVERS <<<<< Highly recommended

Click here for the NFL Team Stats page 

Click here for the Westgate Supercontest

Click here for Las Vegas Insider if you can't get the odds from Covers or LVH


Click here for Colin Cowherd's THE HERD on Fox Sports TV  One of Colin's sidekicks is Kristine Leahy.    You young fellows, you'll appreciate this lady.  Me? This lady makes me wish I was about 40 years younger.  (sigh)

If you don't get the Fox Sports 1 channel, CLICK HERE for GARBAGE TIME by KATIE NOLAN
Again, (sigh).   This show is extremely interesting and unusual.

Click here for our Homepage

Click here for our Table of Contents

Unlike some  touts and tipsters,  we charge nothing for our picks.  We ask only that you turn friends or associates that are into Science Fiction on to Chuck's stories.

Click here for C.E. Gee's Science Fiction article, which includes links to his stories, recommended periodicals, writer's markets, artwork, much more.

To read one of C.E. Gee's latest stories, one that takes about 3 minutes to read, CLICK HERE.

CLICK HERE to read one of C.E. Gee's most controversial stories -- published November 2015. This story takes about 15 minutes to read.

Football joke

Another football joke

Amusing anecdote concerning a visit to the old Seattle Kingdome
Amusing anecdote about an Oakland Raiders fan

Long and rambling review of the Las Vegas Hilton Sportsbook before it became the LVH and then the Las Vegas Westgate

Overly long Saga of Chuck playing 8-man football at Wheeler County High

Click here for a bio on Pappy and other Contributors  << includes a link to Openclipart which provided the artwork for this article -- they're highly recommended.


We don't use any paid cappers here; we do all our calculations in house.  However, if you do use paid cappers, we HIGHLY RECOMMEND WUNDERDOG.



When our contractor found these cappers to be legit, all that means is that you will get picks for payment.  We have no idea of the accuracy of the picks. A Google search of the cappers will often turn up multiple comments from users. 






We've been told there is no website for GOAT CAPPERS.  However, you can get their postings via TWITTER.

This post first appeared on Gardyloo, please read the originial post: here

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