2020-07-16 21:03
Concern about the state of the economy pushes climate change down the issue agenda batting order; evidence of a trend in favour of legalisation of cannabis; and New Zealand Labour still on t… Read More
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2020-07-16 07:00
Three and a half months from the election, Biden maintains a high single-digit national lead over Trump as US coronavirus deaths start rising. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.
The post Biden m… Read More
2020-07-13 20:43
A thread for discussion of today's release of correspondence between Sir John Kerr and Buckingham Palace before the dismissal of the Whitlam government in 1975.
The post Palace intrigue appe… Read More
2020-07-13 20:09
The Melbourne coronavirus takes its toll on the standing of the Andrews government, and a small amount of gloss comes off Scott Morrison's still-impressive ratings.
The post Essential Resear… Read More
2020-07-12 20:00
Jockeying begins to fill Mathias Cormann's Senate vacancy, plus a new poll of doubtful utility on the republic question.
The post How do you solve a problem like Mathias appeared first on Th… Read More
2020-07-07 20:41
Various recent electoral news happenings, including a new poll that suggests the looming Northern Territory election will be, if nothing else, more competitive than the last.
The post Miscel… Read More
2020-07-04 07:49
Live commentary on the counting for the Eden-Monaro by-election.
The post Eden-Monaro by-election live appeared first on The Poll Bludger Read More
2020-07-02 22:22
A poll conducted on Tuesday credits Labor with a lead which, however you slice it, lands well inside the margin of error.
The post Eden-Monaro by-election minus one day appeared first on The… Read More
2020-07-01 20:56
Not the Eden-Monaro by-election news: an Essential Research poll, electoral reform in South Australia and election day roll management potentially to go digital.
The post Essential Research:… Read More
2020-06-29 20:42
More reports of alleged party internal polling, plus other developments on the by-election front.
The post Eden-Monaro by-election minus four days appeared first on The Poll Bludger Read More
2020-06-29 20:33
Persistent high ratings all round for state Premiers and the Prime Minister amid the coronavirus crisis, but signs the current Victorian outbreak may have cost Daniel Andrews some shine.
The… Read More
2020-06-26 19:02
Polls show a tight race in Australia and a rather less tight one in New Zealand; meanwhile, Victorian Labor's factional players wonder what to do next.
The post Weekend miscellany: Morgan, V… Read More
2020-06-25 07:44
Just over four months from the election, Biden has a near double digit national lead over Trump as US coronavirus cases spike again. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.
The post Biden further ext… Read More
2020-06-22 20:39
A new poll registers fears of a second coronavirus wave and prolonged economic slowdown, and finds concern about climate change still at a high pitch.
The post Essential Research: coronaviru… Read More
2020-06-19 19:35
Party turmoil in Victoria and Queensland, state and territory seat entitlements for the next federal parliament determined, and more polling on attitudes to demonstrations in the United Stat… Read More
2020-06-17 20:36
Two more privately conducted polls lean the other way from the party polling circulated last week, showing Labor leading in an apparently tight race.
The post Eden-Monaro: more private polli… Read More
2020-06-15 20:30
Support for anti-racism protests, though perhaps not right now; a mixed bag of outlooks on the trade union movement; and concern that coronavirus support is being withdrawn too early.
The po… Read More
2020-06-12 20:49
Good news and bad news for the Liberals in Eden-Monaro, respectively courtesy of a mystery internal poll and the order of candidates on the ballot paper.
The post Eden-Monaro by-election min… Read More
2020-06-10 20:17
The weekly Essential poll finds considerable displeasure at the government's handling of the robodebt affair, even as Newspoll finds the electoral damage to be limited at best.
The post Esse… Read More
2020-06-06 13:00
Amid the cross-currents of COVID-19 and Jackie Trad's resignation as Deputy Premier, a new poll finds Annastacia Palaszczuk well up on personal approval, but her government sagging on voting… Read More
2020-06-04 20:41
Labor moves to save the Northern Territory's second House of Representatives seat ahead of next month's determination of state and territory seat entitlements.
The post Darwinian selection a… Read More
2020-06-04 20:06
Trump’s ratings fall back as the US is engulfed by protests over George Floyd’s murder. The UK Conservatives also slide. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.
The post Biden increases l… Read More
2020-06-01 19:23
Scott Morrison settles in at a lofty approval rating perch, as hordes of candidates descend upon Eden-Monaro.
The post Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19 appeared… Read More
2020-05-28 19:41
Newspoll offers a deep dive into its recent polling data, offering unprecedented detail on voting intention by income, education, language and religion, along with more familiar breakdowns b… Read More
2020-05-25 21:19
A major souring in Australians' attitudes to China but little change on coronavirus (at least since last week), according to the latest Essential poll.
The post Essential Research: coronavir… Read More
2020-05-25 20:24
A date set for the Eden-Monaro by-election, as the Liberals confirm their candidate and a GetUp! poll suggests local concern about climate changes remains at a high in the wake of the summer… Read More
2020-05-23 20:07
A look at efforts to get to the bottom of last year's federal election pollster failure and the Electoral Commission of Queensland's recent election night meltdown.
The post On failure appea… Read More
2020-05-22 06:02
Four months before the September 19 election, Labour takes a huge lead over National owing to Jacinda Ardern’s coronavirus response. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.
The post New Z… Read More
2020-05-18 20:07
A poll suggests a significant proportion of the population believes coronavirus was engineered in a Chinese laboratory, but other conspiracy theories remain consigned to the fringe.
The po… Read More
2020-05-14 19:20
A poll by the Australia Institute finds next to nothing in it in Eden-Monaro. Also featured: still more coronavirus polling, and the status quo preserved in a Greens plebiscite on how the pa… Read More
2020-05-14 19:14
Joe Biden's national lead over Trump narrows even as a terrible jobs report is released. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.
The post Trump’s ratings recover from crisis lows appeared first… Read More
2020-05-09 19:46
Eden-Monaro Liberals get the preselection ballot they wanted, and the Victorian Greens confirm candidates to fill Richard Di Natale's Senate vacancy.
The post Preselection news x 2 appeared… Read More
2020-05-06 20:54
Chaos and acrimony engulfs the Coalition's bid to snare Eden-Monaro from Labor after the shock withdrawal of mooted Liberal candidate Andrew Constance.
The post Eden-Monaro developments appe… Read More
2020-05-04 19:52
As the contours of the Eden-Monaro by-election start to take shape, a new poll finds respondents highly satisfied with antipodean governments' handling of coronavirus, and mindful of the les… Read More
2020-05-02 20:05
As candidates jockey for the early running in Eden-Monaro, the results of a reported Nationals internal poll, plus a couple of other things to be dubious about.
The post Three-cornered cont… Read More
2020-04-30 18:58
Despite the constraints of coronavirus, the looming by-election in Eden-Monaro looks set to proceed in a more-or-less normal fashion, with the entry of state Nationals leader John Barilaro s… Read More
2020-04-27 20:02
State-level polling finds the coronavirus tide lifting all boats -- but none so far as Mark McGowan in WA, whose numbers may be without precedent.
The post Newspoll state leadership polling… Read More
2020-04-24 06:19
Joe Biden has clear leads over Trump in key states as the coronavirus death toll and economic damage rise. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont,
The post Trump’s ratings slide back to pre-cr… Read More
2020-04-22 19:59
A new polling industry standards council takes shape; and the coronavirus polling glut keeps piling higher.
The post It’s as easy as APC appeared first on The Poll Bludger Read More
2020-04-20 20:10
Confidence in the federal government and other institutions on the rise, but state governments in New South Wales and Queensland appear to lag behind Victoria, Western Australia and South Au… Read More
2020-04-19 20:09
Random notes on coronavirus and opinion poll response rates, election postponements and a call to give counting of pre-poll votes a head start on election night.
The post What the papers say… Read More
2020-04-18 22:09
A long hard look at what has unfolded in Wisconsin over the past two weeks, and what it might portend for November's presidential election.
The post On, Wisconsin appeared first on The Poll… Read More
2020-04-15 20:22
An Ipsos issue salience poll finds environmental concerns elbowed aside by health care and the economy. Also: prospects for elections amid coronavirus in Queensland and the Northern Territor… Read More
2020-04-13 19:25
Two new polls suggest support for the federal government's handling of the coronavirus crisis is still on the rise.
The post Essential Research and Morgan: more coronavirus polling appeared… Read More
2020-04-10 20:16
Results finalised on Queensland's two status quo state by-election results, and COVID-19 question marks over looming elections in New Zealand, the Northern Territory and for two Tasmanian up… Read More
2020-04-06 18:18
Monthly leadership ratings from Essential confirm the overall picture painted by Newspoll, with both leaders up but Scott Morrison especially so.
The post Essential Research: leadership rati… Read More
2020-04-06 18:17
The High Court will bring down its judgement on George Pell’s appeal against his conviction on child sex abuse offences. Since this may generate vigorous discussion of at most tangenti… Read More
2020-04-02 19:08
Random notes: a WA only poll on coronavirus, some detail on the elections in Queensland last Saturday, and a look at Donald Trump's counter-intuitive poll bounce.
The post Something for the… Read More
2020-04-01 20:24
Trump’s ratings have improved to near-record highs, but his improvement is far less than other leaders. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.
The post Is Trump’s ratings improvement sus… Read More
2020-03-30 21:41
Two new polls suggest early skepticism about the threat posed by coronavirus is fast disappearing.
The post Essential Research and Roy Morgan: more coronavirus polling appeared first on The… Read More
2020-03-29 17:11
A bluffers' guide to Saturday's elections in Queensland, plus further items of marginal interest.
The post Another three things appeared first on The Poll Bludger Read More
2020-03-28 08:06
Live results and projections for Bundamba here and Currumbin here. 6.18pm. I’ve mostly got it working now, I hope, though a niggling error means I’m unable to provide rows for no… Read More
2020-03-26 17:32
Two polls find the Liberal National Party opposition struggling in Queensland's two state by-elections. Also: a quick look at the lord mayoral and council elections in Brisbane.
The post Que… Read More
2020-03-23 18:53
Generally favourable reaction to the government's handling of coronavirus, a big thumbs up to access to superannuation, and yah boo sucks to Murdoch, Palmer, Rinehart and Harvey.
The post Es… Read More
2020-03-21 20:28
Democracy battles on in the face of adversity in Queensland and (at least for now) Tasmania, as a poll finds most Australians believe the media is exaggerating the crisis (at least for now)… Read More
2020-03-17 20:08
Queensland council elections and state by-elections to proceed in spite of everything; two polls on attitudes to coronavirus; and Josh Frydenberg off the Section 44 hook.
The post Democracy… Read More
2020-03-17 20:04
The first Tasmanian state poll since Peter Gutwein became Premier finds the Liberals still looking strong, despite the evident popularity of Labor leader Rebecca White.
The post EMRS: Libera… Read More
2020-03-17 07:19
With Biden certain to be the Democratic nominee, will coronavirus damage Trump’s re-election prospects? Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.
The post US presidential election: Biden vs Trump… Read More
2020-03-17 07:19
With Biden certain to be the Democratic nominee, will coronavirus damage Trump’s re-election prospects? Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.
The post US General Election: Biden vs Trump appe… Read More
2020-03-13 05:56
At the mid-point of its first term, the second South Australian opinion poll since the 2018 election produces a sobering result for Steven Marshall's Liberal government.
The post YouGov Gala… Read More
2020-03-10 05:14
Joe Biden is very likely to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders needing big breaks in today’s primaries. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont
The post Six states’ Democratic pri… Read More
2020-03-06 20:17
The major parties in Victoria get fiddling to nobble the Greens in local government; candidates confirmed for Queensland's Bundamba by-election; and Barrie Cassidy's moustache strikes back… Read More
2020-03-03 09:02
Live commentary on the Super Tuesday primaries that occur tomorrow in Australia. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.
The post Super Tuesday Democratic primaries: live commentary appeared first o… Read More
2020-03-02 16:42
Some rare insights into how preferences behave in unusual circumstances courtesy of the Johnston by-election, and yet more data on issue salience, this time from JWS Research.
The post Two t… Read More
2020-02-29 20:52
Live commentary on today’s South Carolina primary, where Joe Biden has surged back to a big poll lead. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont. The main general discussion thre… Read More
2020-02-28 20:51
Live coverage of counting for the Northern Territory's Johnston by-election.
The post Johnston by-election live appeared first on The Poll Bludger Read More
2020-02-27 19:36
A poll for the Institute of Public Affairs shows mixed views on the ABC, but it may be showing its age. Also featured: updates on by-elections in the Northern Territory and Queensland.
The p… Read More
2020-02-27 07:49
Monday’s third Israeli election in a year will probably result in another stalemate. Also covered: the recent German political crisis and Sinn Féin surges in an Irish poll. Gues… Read More
2020-02-25 20:27
A quick look at this week's Essential Research report, and a deeper one at last week's ANU survey on the impact of the bushfires.
The post Essential Research: carbon, coal and coronavirus ap… Read More
2020-02-22 20:15
Live commentary on today’s Nevada Democratic caucus. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.
The post Nevada Democratic caucus: live commentary appeared first on The Poll Bludger Read More
2020-02-20 18:15
A second by-election now looms in Queensland, in which One Nation may cause trouble in a traditionally Labor-voting working class seat. Elsewhere, Josh Frydenberg faces a contentious Section… Read More
2020-02-17 20:06
A contentious preference recommendation by the Greens brings a Northern Territory by-election to life, while the closure of nominations yields only a small field of candidates for the Queens… Read More
2020-02-14 19:54
Zooming in on the federal election results for the three seats of the Australian Capital Territory and the two of the Northern Territory, all of which were won by Labor.
The post Call of the… Read More
2020-02-11 18:22
Live commentary on today’s New Hampshire primary. Also: Sinn Féin upsets the conservative duopoly at Saturday’s Irish election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont
The post New… Read More
2020-02-08 19:13
Victoria's Greens gear up for a party vote to fill Richard Di Natale's Senate vacancy, plus similar developments for the state Liberals in Tasmania and Victoria.
The post Empty chairs appear… Read More
2020-02-07 10:25
A new poll shows a bad result for Annastacia Palaszczuk, but an even worse one for LNP leader Deb Frecklington ahead of a difficult by-election late next month.
The post YouGov Galaxy: 50-50… Read More
2020-02-03 17:06
Live commentary on the US Iowa Democratic caucuses. Also: Sinn Féin surges ahead of Saturday’s Irish election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.
The post Iowa Democratic caucuses:… Read More
2020-02-03 17:00
Leadership action for two parties at the second tier of federal politics, dates confirmed for Queensland and Northern Territory by-elections, and the Liberals choose a successor for Cory Ber… Read More
2020-01-29 19:58
The latest from Essential finds majority support for removing Bridget McKenzie, but with a third saying they haven't been following the issue.
The post Essential Research: sports rorts, ICAC… Read More
2020-01-28 18:55
Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are roughly tied in Iowa. Also: the upcoming Irish election and yet more on Brexit. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.
The post US Iowa Democratic caucus minus one… Read More
2020-01-25 19:06
Evidence a large majority opposes changing the date of Australia Day, even without the IPA's thumb on the scales.
The post Patriot games appeared first on The Poll Bludger Read More
2020-01-25 19:01
Queensland state by-elections loom in at least one seat, almost certain to be held on the day of the state's council elections.
The post Queensland state by-election(s) and the Brisbane lord… Read More
2020-01-21 19:24
New poll results from around the place on attitudes towards climate change, Australia Day and things-in-general.
The post Poll respondents with attitudes appeared first on The Poll Bludger Read More
2020-01-16 19:57
A small measure of historical perspective for this week's leadership polling, on which Scott Morrison lost his lead as preferred prime minister from both Newspoll and Essential Research.
The… Read More
2020-01-14 05:03
Tasmania's Premier resigns after two election landslides and one-and-a-half terms.
The post Will Hodgman resigns appeared first on The Poll Bludger Read More
2020-01-09 20:01
Some overdue insights into what went wrong for Labor in Tasmania, whose five seats accounted for two of the party's five losses at the federal election.
The post Call of the board: Tasmania… Read More
2020-01-04 17:47
To keep things ticking over, some factless musings on the bushfire situation.
The post Burning questions appeared first on The Poll Bludger Read More
2019-12-25 19:10
Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.
The post Newspoll breakdowns: Nov… Read More
2019-12-24 13:57
Challenge against Liberal federal election wins in Chisholm and Kooyong rejected, but questions to answer for the party's former state director.
The post Slap on the writs appeared first on… Read More
2019-12-23 19:13
Chisholm and Kooyong court ruling imminent; comparison of American and Australian political attitudes; and a merry Christmas to all.
The post Not a creature was stirring appeared first on Th… Read More
2019-12-14 19:18
A by-election looms in the Northern Territory, plus not much else of psephological interest going on right now.
The post Northern exposure appeared first on The Poll Bludger Read More
2019-12-10 20:02
One last hurrah for 2019 from Essential Research finds an improvement in Anthony Albanese's ratings, but little change for Scott Morrison.
The post Essential Research: that was the year that… Read More
2019-12-09 19:08
A visual representation of how votes flowed between the parties at the 2016 and 2019 elections, plus other observations from the Australian National University's post-election survey.
The po… Read More
2019-12-09 18:08
The lower-educated appear likely to sink Labour in Thursday’s UK election. Also featured: a guide to how the results will come in on Friday (our time).
The post UK election minus three… Read More
2019-12-08 11:44
Another modest Coalition lead from the second poll in a new-look Newspoll series, which also finds Scott Morrison rated well for strength, vision and experience, but higher than he'd like fo… Read More
2019-12-05 19:19
A quick and dirty guide to what pollsters seem to be telling us a week out from an unpredictable British election.
The post British election polling in five charts appeared first on The Pol… Read More
2019-12-02 20:07
Three ways Labour could outperform the polls, and defy the Conservatives’ lead. Also featured: recent developments in Germany. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.
The post UK election minus… Read More
2019-12-02 20:07
Reading between the lines of the Liberal Party's post-election reports for the federal and Victorian state elections.
The post Winners and losers appeared first on The Poll Bludger Read More
2019-11-29 20:14
A look at leadership approval poll trends, and my new facility for tracking them.
The post A track winding back appeared first on The Poll Bludger Read More
2019-11-27 08:23
With the electoral boundaries now finalised, some reflection on how things stand in Western Australia, where the next state election is to be held in March 2021.
The post Matters Western Aus… Read More
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