Some news and notes for tonight’s portfolio from Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com
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Washington-Pittsburgh
Washington Joe Ross 5.91 ERA, horrid .378 OBP
- Stunning .50 ERA, .261 OBP against last 3
- Better on road than at home, .315 OBP compared to .455
Pirates Trevor Williams 5.25 ERA and .330 OBP
- 11 ER last 10 IP
- .400 OBP last three starts
Team trends
- Pittsburgh 110-178 underdog -37.98 units
Riding hot Road teams that are not underdogs of 105 or more is 234-131 since 2017 +66.96 units and 13.6 ROI
Milwaukee-St. Louis
Milwaukee Zach Davis 3.74 ERA
- 11.77 ERA last three starts .400 OBP and 2.00 WHIP
- Substantially better on road 2.97 ERA, compared to 4.66 road, though OBP and WHIP about the same
- Much better at night with 2.67 ERA compared to 4.91 day, but again WHIP and OBP not as dichotomous
Dakota Watson, Cards 17-8 with him, though overall numbers are okay
- .410 OBP last three starts
- Numbers slightly worse at home and at night
Milwaukee lost 16-8 yesterday. Fading teams off a loss of seven or more is +107.75 units and 12.2 ROI under specific circumstances that apply today
Team trends:
- Cards under 686-555-68 at home since 2004
Kansas City-Baltimore
Kansas City’s reliever Jorge Lopez making second straight start giving up 5 runs, 4 earned in 1.1 in initial start
- 30 appearances, but 11 as starter
- 6.51 ERA, 1.55 WHIP
- Numbers less horrible on road
Baltimore’s John Means 10 ER last 7.1 IP, allowing 13 hits
- Respectable 6-3 home, 3.00 ERA and .260 OPB against, with 1.03 WHIP
Favorites that have lost at least 12 of 13 are 21-20 all-time on runline +28 ROI
Home favorites with 45 or more losses and winning percentage of .315 or less 14-8 all-time with 6.6 ROI
Team trends:
- Kansas City 127-218 -53 units since 2017
- Baltimore 273-169 home favorites since 2008 for +47.92 unit
KC hitting .215 last 10, Baltimore .238
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