Best Picture
Should Win: Whiplash
Will Win: Boyhood
Runner-up: Birdman
Explanation: Expect the Academy to split their votes between the two front-runners, Birdman and Boyhood, by honoring one with Best Picture and the other with Best Director. It's possible that Birdman could sneak in with a win, with it might be too quirky for Academy tastes. My favorite movie of the bunch is Whiplash, and there's no denying its power in portraying the relentless pursuit of perfection. Unfortunately, though, it is the least likely Film to win.
Best Director
Should Win: Richard Linklater -- Boyhood
Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu -- Birdman
Runner-up: Wes Anderson -- The Grand Budapest Hotel
Explanation: As I already mentioned, the Academy will most likely split their votes between the two biggest categories, and because Inarritu won the Director's Guild Award -- which is about 90% accurate in determining the Oscar winner -- he will win here. Inarritu's direction is innovative, to be sure, but Linklater should win, for his his hard work and dedication in filming Boyhood over the course of 12 years (side note: at one point, there was some difficulty financing the movie, so he insurance money from a house fire to finance it himself).
Best Actor
Should Win: Michael Keaton -- Birdman
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne -- The Theory of Everything
Runner-up: Bradley Cooper -- American Sniper
Explanation: This is the most difficult acting category to call, by far, because both Keaton and Redmayne have won awards throughout the season, although Redmayne has the slight edge; he triumphed over Keaton for the BAFTA and SAG awards, which often predict the Oscar winner(s). Both have given memorable and touching speeches, and both have given their all to create two fabulous performances. Redmayne's physical transformation into physicist Stephen Hawking -- who has ALS -- may narrowly beat Keaton's fictionalized character. Honestly, though, I believe it to be Keaton's time, after having worked so hard throughout his career; him winning would be a recognition of his entire career, just as Jeff Bridges' win for Crazy Heart. But some say, "wait, what about Bradley Cooper?" He has recently become the dark horse in this competition, so don't count him out.
Best Supporting Actor
Should/Will Win: J.K. Simmons -- Whiplash
Runner-up: Ethan Hawke -- Boyhood
Explanation: No one even close to Simmons' mesmerizingly brutal performance as the verbally and physically abusive conductor to Miles Teller's perfectionistic percussionist. As unbearingly cruel as he is, you can't take your eyes off him. He has snapped up essentially every major award this season, so expect Lupita Nyong'o -- last year's Best Supporting Actress winner -- to say Simmons' name. A distant second-place is Ethan Hawke, who plays the most likeably carefree and caring father possible.
Best Actress
Should/Will Win: Julianne Moore -- Still Alice
Runner-up: Rosamund Pike -- Gone Girl
Explanation: Just as I said it's Keaton's time, so it is Moore's. She has been nominated several times before, and while she is magnificent in Still Alice, this win will be in part a recognition of her consistently excellent work. It's surely a career-high performance for this veteran actress, whose strongest competition -- who is still weak competition -- is Pike, with the sole nomination for the oft-snubbed Gone Girl. She managed to make Amy compelling, terrifying, and lovely, all at the same time.
Best Supporting Actress
Should/Will Win: Patricia Arquette -- Boyhood
Runner-up: Keira Knightley -- The Imitation Game
Explanation: Arquette has been the front-runner all season, and deservedly so; she takes us through all the stages of this divorced mother who just wants to do right by her children. Her perfectly subtle performance is partly responsible for the movie and story's relatability. If it weren't for Arquette, I would love for Knightley to win; she is delightfully smart and lively in The Imitation Game, and was equally great in Begin Again (nominated for Best Original Song).
Best Original Screenplay
Should Win: Boyhood -- Richard Linklater
Will Win: Wes Anderson -- The Grand Budapest Hotel
Runner-up: Birdman -- Alejandro G. Inarritu, et. al
Explanation: Anderson has won the Writer's Guild Award for his frenetic, clever script, and the WGA's are very predictive of the Oscars. While I applaud Anderson's originality, Linklater deserves to win here, for managing to capture small, intimate moments in Boyhood, which enabled many viewers -- myself included -- to relate to the movie. Birdman's script is no less unique than its direction, especially in scenes like the one that showcases Emma Stone's verbal aptitude.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: Whiplash -- Damien Chazelle
Will Win: The Imitation Game -- Graham Moore
Runner-up: The Theory of Everything -- Anthony McCarten
Explanation: Moore won the WGA for adapting the Imitation Game, which will probably be the film's sole (in a far less crowded year, Cumberbatch would've had a shot at Best Actor). But don't underestimate the power of Chazelle's Whiplash, which had been considered an Original Screenplay up to this point, and should be -- the Academy put it in this category because Chazelle first wrote it as a short film -- but, regardless, it deserves to win here, just as it deserves Best Picture. McCarten's script is also a contender here, but because the movie will most likely win a couple of other awards, the writer's branch of the Academy will most likely go with the other period British piece.
Best Film Editing
Should/Will Win: Boyhood -- Sandra Adair
Runner-up: Whiplash -- Tom Cross
Explanation: Piecing together 12 years' worth of film footage into a cohesive, full-length feature film is no easy feat, which is why Adair should and will win. Though the movie is nearly three hours long, it doesn't drag; it certainly helps that it was filmed in chronological order. But take a look at some of the scenes in Whiplash, especially Miles Teller's character's final drum solo -- lasting for nine minutes -- that is a miraculous feat in itself.
Best Animated Feature Film
Should Win: Big Hero 6
Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Runner-up: The Boxtrolls
Explanation: Let's forget, for a moment, that The Lego Movie wasn't nominated -- it may be due to the fact that it's not 100% animated -- and focus on the strong but not terrific contenders here. The Dragon sequel seems like an unlikely choice, for sequels don't necessarily fare well here -- with the exception of the magnificent Toy Story 3, of course -- but this one has been picking up multiple awards this season. It's not any better than the first film, in my opinion, though it handles grief quite well, though not nearly as well as Big Hero 6, Disney's latest. What's not to like about an unlikely, albeit predictable, robot-human relationship? I also found The Boxtrolls to be quite intriguing, in part due to the lovely stop-motion animation.
Foreign Language
Should Win: Timbuktu (Mauritania)
Will Win: Ida (Poland)
Runner-up: Wild Tales (Argentina)
Explanation: Ida, the black-and-white Polish film, is the favorite here, with Oscar-friendly themes -- i.e. the Holocaust -- but it's not the best. Mauritania's Timbuktu is gorgeously shot and more of-the-moment. The other three contenders are decent enough to be in this category, especially Wild Tales, which is entertaining and eccentric.
Best Documentary Feature Film
Should Win: Virunga
Will Win: Citizenfour
Runner-up: Last Days in Vietnam
Explanation: Citizenfour has been winning nearly every award thusfar, and there's no reason to believe it won't win the Oscar. But it's far from my favorite, which was Virunga, a wonderful Netflix documentary that focuses on a national park in Congo that has some of the last mountain gorillas; there's much more to it than that, but I can't resist a movie about animals and humans' love for them. PBS' Last Days in Vietnam is also great, and focuses on the evacuation of South Vietnamese citizens after the Vietnam War.
Best Cinematography
Should/Will Win: Birdman --Emmanuel Lubezki
Runner-up: Unbroken -- Roger Deakins
Explanation: Lubezki won last year for Gravity, and he has every right to win again this year; what's remarkable about his camera work in Birdman is that it appears as though it was [nearly] filmed in one long, continuous take. I'm no expert on cinematography, but I was also impressed with Deakins' work in Unbroken; Deakins has been nominated 12 times, with no wins.
Best Production Design
Should/Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Runner-up: Interstellar
Explanation: The fictionalized places shown in The Grand Budapest Hotel are vibrant and lively, so Anderson's quirky film should pick up one of its technical prizes here. But, I was also wowed by the scenery in Interstellar; as the actors of the film have mentioned, there was no green screen, which made much of the scenes more realistic than they would have been otherwise.
Best Costume Design
Should/Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel -- Milena Canonero
Runner-up: Colleen Atwood -- Into the Woods
Explanation: The Academy loves flashy, colorful costumes, which is partly why Canonero's designs should win. That said, Atwood, a past winner and nominee, has created costumes that are no less exuberant, and are -- in some cases -- essential to the narrative of Into the Woods.
Best Make-up/Hairstyling
Should/Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Runner-up: Foxcatcher
Explanation: The Grand Budapest Hotel will most likely sweep this categories, and will win this one due to the brilliant make-up used in making Tilda Swinton appear much older than she is. Also impressive is the prosthetics and other make-up that was used to transform Steve Carell into the large-nosed, creepy-looking John du Pont.
Best Sound Editing
Should/Will Win: American Sniper
Runner-up: Birdman
Explanation: I know very little about these sound categories, but American Sniper seems to be the one to beat here, based on its previous wins in this category. Runner-up would be Birdman; those piercing, almost-constant drumming seems distracting at first, but it really grew on me.
Best Sound Mixing
Should/Will Win: Whiplash
Runner-up: Birdman
Explanation: Speaking of drumming, remember that nine-minute long drum solo in Whiplash? Yes, that may be why it wins here. But, again, don't rule out Birdman.
Best Visual Effects
Should Win: Interstellar
Will Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Runner-up: Guardians of the Galaxy
Explanation: Interstellar's visuals are -- pun intended -- out of this world, and even more impressive than Christopher Nolan's other films. But Dawn of the Planet of the Apes may win, with its brilliant motion-capture effects, buoyed by yet another flawless performance by motion-capture go-to man Andy Serkis. The other three nominees are equally great, but Guardians of the Galaxy gets the edge with its creation of creatures like the loveable Groot.
Best Original Score
Should Win: Hans Zimmer -- Interstellar
Will Win: Johan Johansson -- The Theory of Everything
Runner-up: Alexandre Desplat -- The Grand Budapest Hotel
Explanation: Zimmer's pulsing score follows the pace of Nolan's intergalactic epic perfectly, though Johansson has been mostly picking up awards in this category, which doesn't necessarily disappoint me. Don't understand the power of Desplat, nominated twice in this category.
Best Original Song
Should Win: "Lost Stars" -- Begin Again
Will Win: "Glory" -- Selma
Runner-up: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" -- Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
Explanation: Perhaps I'm biased, because I saw Begin Again and was in love with Keira Knightley's version of "Lost Stars," but it is the best song of the bunch. That's not to say that "Glory," which will probably win, is bad, which it definitely isn't. And the new song from Glen Campbell's documentary is sad and sweet, especially if you watch the music video.
Best Live Action Short Film
Should/Will Win: The Phone Call
Runner-up: Boogaloo and Graham
Explanation: The Phone Call is brilliantly acted, with a tour de force performance by Sally Hawkins and equally impressive work by Jim Broadbent, who is never seen on camera. It's sad, perhaps too sad for this category, which sometimes goes with more whimsical, entertaining films, like Ireland's Boogaloo and Graham.
Best Animated Short Film
Should/Will Win: Feast
Runner-up: The Dam Keeper
Explanation: Feast is another lovely Disney short that hits all the right notes, though don't assume it will win just because it's a Disney film; last year's Disney short, Get a Horse!, seemed like a shoo-in but lost out. In that case, look to The Dam Keeper, which has been promoted so much that it appears in Facebook messenger.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Should/Will Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Runner-up: Joanna
Explanation: HBO's Crisis Hotline is very similar to The Phone Call, but it's true, and is focused on veterans. But, like the other short film categories, this one is difficult to accurately predict. The depressing and sentimental Joanna is also a possibility.
Should Win: Whiplash
Will Win: Boyhood
Runner-up: Birdman
Explanation: Expect the Academy to split their votes between the two front-runners, Birdman and Boyhood, by honoring one with Best Picture and the other with Best Director. It's possible that Birdman could sneak in with a win, with it might be too quirky for Academy tastes. My favorite movie of the bunch is Whiplash, and there's no denying its power in portraying the relentless pursuit of perfection. Unfortunately, though, it is the least likely Film to win.
Best Director
Should Win: Richard Linklater -- Boyhood
Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu -- Birdman
Runner-up: Wes Anderson -- The Grand Budapest Hotel
Explanation: As I already mentioned, the Academy will most likely split their votes between the two biggest categories, and because Inarritu won the Director's Guild Award -- which is about 90% accurate in determining the Oscar winner -- he will win here. Inarritu's direction is innovative, to be sure, but Linklater should win, for his his hard work and dedication in filming Boyhood over the course of 12 years (side note: at one point, there was some difficulty financing the movie, so he insurance money from a house fire to finance it himself).
Best Actor
Should Win: Michael Keaton -- Birdman
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne -- The Theory of Everything
Runner-up: Bradley Cooper -- American Sniper
Explanation: This is the most difficult acting category to call, by far, because both Keaton and Redmayne have won awards throughout the season, although Redmayne has the slight edge; he triumphed over Keaton for the BAFTA and SAG awards, which often predict the Oscar winner(s). Both have given memorable and touching speeches, and both have given their all to create two fabulous performances. Redmayne's physical transformation into physicist Stephen Hawking -- who has ALS -- may narrowly beat Keaton's fictionalized character. Honestly, though, I believe it to be Keaton's time, after having worked so hard throughout his career; him winning would be a recognition of his entire career, just as Jeff Bridges' win for Crazy Heart. But some say, "wait, what about Bradley Cooper?" He has recently become the dark horse in this competition, so don't count him out.
Best Supporting Actor
Should/Will Win: J.K. Simmons -- Whiplash
Runner-up: Ethan Hawke -- Boyhood
Explanation: No one even close to Simmons' mesmerizingly brutal performance as the verbally and physically abusive conductor to Miles Teller's perfectionistic percussionist. As unbearingly cruel as he is, you can't take your eyes off him. He has snapped up essentially every major award this season, so expect Lupita Nyong'o -- last year's Best Supporting Actress winner -- to say Simmons' name. A distant second-place is Ethan Hawke, who plays the most likeably carefree and caring father possible.
Best Actress
Should/Will Win: Julianne Moore -- Still Alice
Runner-up: Rosamund Pike -- Gone Girl
Explanation: Just as I said it's Keaton's time, so it is Moore's. She has been nominated several times before, and while she is magnificent in Still Alice, this win will be in part a recognition of her consistently excellent work. It's surely a career-high performance for this veteran actress, whose strongest competition -- who is still weak competition -- is Pike, with the sole nomination for the oft-snubbed Gone Girl. She managed to make Amy compelling, terrifying, and lovely, all at the same time.
Best Supporting Actress
Should/Will Win: Patricia Arquette -- Boyhood
Runner-up: Keira Knightley -- The Imitation Game
Explanation: Arquette has been the front-runner all season, and deservedly so; she takes us through all the stages of this divorced mother who just wants to do right by her children. Her perfectly subtle performance is partly responsible for the movie and story's relatability. If it weren't for Arquette, I would love for Knightley to win; she is delightfully smart and lively in The Imitation Game, and was equally great in Begin Again (nominated for Best Original Song).
Best Original Screenplay
Should Win: Boyhood -- Richard Linklater
Will Win: Wes Anderson -- The Grand Budapest Hotel
Runner-up: Birdman -- Alejandro G. Inarritu, et. al
Explanation: Anderson has won the Writer's Guild Award for his frenetic, clever script, and the WGA's are very predictive of the Oscars. While I applaud Anderson's originality, Linklater deserves to win here, for managing to capture small, intimate moments in Boyhood, which enabled many viewers -- myself included -- to relate to the movie. Birdman's script is no less unique than its direction, especially in scenes like the one that showcases Emma Stone's verbal aptitude.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: Whiplash -- Damien Chazelle
Will Win: The Imitation Game -- Graham Moore
Runner-up: The Theory of Everything -- Anthony McCarten
Explanation: Moore won the WGA for adapting the Imitation Game, which will probably be the film's sole (in a far less crowded year, Cumberbatch would've had a shot at Best Actor). But don't underestimate the power of Chazelle's Whiplash, which had been considered an Original Screenplay up to this point, and should be -- the Academy put it in this category because Chazelle first wrote it as a short film -- but, regardless, it deserves to win here, just as it deserves Best Picture. McCarten's script is also a contender here, but because the movie will most likely win a couple of other awards, the writer's branch of the Academy will most likely go with the other period British piece.
Best Film Editing
Should/Will Win: Boyhood -- Sandra Adair
Runner-up: Whiplash -- Tom Cross
Explanation: Piecing together 12 years' worth of film footage into a cohesive, full-length feature film is no easy feat, which is why Adair should and will win. Though the movie is nearly three hours long, it doesn't drag; it certainly helps that it was filmed in chronological order. But take a look at some of the scenes in Whiplash, especially Miles Teller's character's final drum solo -- lasting for nine minutes -- that is a miraculous feat in itself.
Best Animated Feature Film
Should Win: Big Hero 6
Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Runner-up: The Boxtrolls
Explanation: Let's forget, for a moment, that The Lego Movie wasn't nominated -- it may be due to the fact that it's not 100% animated -- and focus on the strong but not terrific contenders here. The Dragon sequel seems like an unlikely choice, for sequels don't necessarily fare well here -- with the exception of the magnificent Toy Story 3, of course -- but this one has been picking up multiple awards this season. It's not any better than the first film, in my opinion, though it handles grief quite well, though not nearly as well as Big Hero 6, Disney's latest. What's not to like about an unlikely, albeit predictable, robot-human relationship? I also found The Boxtrolls to be quite intriguing, in part due to the lovely stop-motion animation.
Foreign Language
Should Win: Timbuktu (Mauritania)
Will Win: Ida (Poland)
Runner-up: Wild Tales (Argentina)
Explanation: Ida, the black-and-white Polish film, is the favorite here, with Oscar-friendly themes -- i.e. the Holocaust -- but it's not the best. Mauritania's Timbuktu is gorgeously shot and more of-the-moment. The other three contenders are decent enough to be in this category, especially Wild Tales, which is entertaining and eccentric.
Best Documentary Feature Film
Should Win: Virunga
Will Win: Citizenfour
Runner-up: Last Days in Vietnam
Explanation: Citizenfour has been winning nearly every award thusfar, and there's no reason to believe it won't win the Oscar. But it's far from my favorite, which was Virunga, a wonderful Netflix documentary that focuses on a national park in Congo that has some of the last mountain gorillas; there's much more to it than that, but I can't resist a movie about animals and humans' love for them. PBS' Last Days in Vietnam is also great, and focuses on the evacuation of South Vietnamese citizens after the Vietnam War.
Best Cinematography
Should/Will Win: Birdman --Emmanuel Lubezki
Runner-up: Unbroken -- Roger Deakins
Explanation: Lubezki won last year for Gravity, and he has every right to win again this year; what's remarkable about his camera work in Birdman is that it appears as though it was [nearly] filmed in one long, continuous take. I'm no expert on cinematography, but I was also impressed with Deakins' work in Unbroken; Deakins has been nominated 12 times, with no wins.
Best Production Design
Should/Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Runner-up: Interstellar
Explanation: The fictionalized places shown in The Grand Budapest Hotel are vibrant and lively, so Anderson's quirky film should pick up one of its technical prizes here. But, I was also wowed by the scenery in Interstellar; as the actors of the film have mentioned, there was no green screen, which made much of the scenes more realistic than they would have been otherwise.
Best Costume Design
Should/Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel -- Milena Canonero
Runner-up: Colleen Atwood -- Into the Woods
Explanation: The Academy loves flashy, colorful costumes, which is partly why Canonero's designs should win. That said, Atwood, a past winner and nominee, has created costumes that are no less exuberant, and are -- in some cases -- essential to the narrative of Into the Woods.
Best Make-up/Hairstyling
Should/Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Runner-up: Foxcatcher
Explanation: The Grand Budapest Hotel will most likely sweep this categories, and will win this one due to the brilliant make-up used in making Tilda Swinton appear much older than she is. Also impressive is the prosthetics and other make-up that was used to transform Steve Carell into the large-nosed, creepy-looking John du Pont.
Best Sound Editing
Should/Will Win: American Sniper
Runner-up: Birdman
Explanation: I know very little about these sound categories, but American Sniper seems to be the one to beat here, based on its previous wins in this category. Runner-up would be Birdman; those piercing, almost-constant drumming seems distracting at first, but it really grew on me.
Best Sound Mixing
Should/Will Win: Whiplash
Runner-up: Birdman
Explanation: Speaking of drumming, remember that nine-minute long drum solo in Whiplash? Yes, that may be why it wins here. But, again, don't rule out Birdman.
Best Visual Effects
Should Win: Interstellar
Will Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Runner-up: Guardians of the Galaxy
Explanation: Interstellar's visuals are -- pun intended -- out of this world, and even more impressive than Christopher Nolan's other films. But Dawn of the Planet of the Apes may win, with its brilliant motion-capture effects, buoyed by yet another flawless performance by motion-capture go-to man Andy Serkis. The other three nominees are equally great, but Guardians of the Galaxy gets the edge with its creation of creatures like the loveable Groot.
Best Original Score
Should Win: Hans Zimmer -- Interstellar
Will Win: Johan Johansson -- The Theory of Everything
Runner-up: Alexandre Desplat -- The Grand Budapest Hotel
Explanation: Zimmer's pulsing score follows the pace of Nolan's intergalactic epic perfectly, though Johansson has been mostly picking up awards in this category, which doesn't necessarily disappoint me. Don't understand the power of Desplat, nominated twice in this category.
Best Original Song
Should Win: "Lost Stars" -- Begin Again
Will Win: "Glory" -- Selma
Runner-up: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" -- Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
Explanation: Perhaps I'm biased, because I saw Begin Again and was in love with Keira Knightley's version of "Lost Stars," but it is the best song of the bunch. That's not to say that "Glory," which will probably win, is bad, which it definitely isn't. And the new song from Glen Campbell's documentary is sad and sweet, especially if you watch the music video.
Best Live Action Short Film
Should/Will Win: The Phone Call
Runner-up: Boogaloo and Graham
Explanation: The Phone Call is brilliantly acted, with a tour de force performance by Sally Hawkins and equally impressive work by Jim Broadbent, who is never seen on camera. It's sad, perhaps too sad for this category, which sometimes goes with more whimsical, entertaining films, like Ireland's Boogaloo and Graham.
Best Animated Short Film
Should/Will Win: Feast
Runner-up: The Dam Keeper
Explanation: Feast is another lovely Disney short that hits all the right notes, though don't assume it will win just because it's a Disney film; last year's Disney short, Get a Horse!, seemed like a shoo-in but lost out. In that case, look to The Dam Keeper, which has been promoted so much that it appears in Facebook messenger.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Should/Will Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Runner-up: Joanna
Explanation: HBO's Crisis Hotline is very similar to The Phone Call, but it's true, and is focused on veterans. But, like the other short film categories, this one is difficult to accurately predict. The depressing and sentimental Joanna is also a possibility.
