Season: 90-56-1
Last Week: 8-5
Redskins: 6-3
ATS: 14-26 (Last Week: 1-3)
Lock: 6-4
The picks ATS are getting laughable. The NFL is impossible in general, but a bad year for me in the past has been 6 or 7 games below .500. Through ten weeks, I'm TWELVE below. Having said that, almost inexplicably, I continue a pretty strong trend of being able to hit the lock of the week. I'm on a solid, yet unspectacular pace picking the games SU-- failed in a colossal manner selecting the Panthers to upset the Eagles on Monday Night.
Buffalo at Miami: My Thursday night track record is just brutal. It's been a horror show. My apologies to Bills fans in advance, but I smell an upset down south.
Bills 23, Dolphins 20
Houston at Cleveland: If Ryan Fitzpatrick was starting this game, I'd feel very comfortable taking the three points here. With Mallet, I'm a little unsure. But it also presents the opportunity for Houston to REALLY catch the Browns napping. Cleveland put together a great defensive effort in Cincy last week, but I'm not sure where their greatness began and where Andy Dalton's ducks stopped. The Texans can run the ball and the Browns have trouble stopping it. Another upset pick here, albeit a shaky one.
Texans 22, Browns 20
Minnesota at Chicago: It's hard to not over-exaggerate in the moment, but to say that the Bears put together one of the most humiliating performances I've ever seen last Sunday night is pretty much right on point. That was disgusting, especially considering they were coming off a similarly eye-popping stomping in New England. The Bears are just a miserable mess right now and they are going nowhere. The question is whether or not they show a little pride this week and put together a decent outing against a below average Vikings outfit. I wouldn't touch this game with YOUR money, but if I had to make a pick....
Bears 27, Vikings 21
Philadelphia at Green Bay: Carolina was so horrendous on Monday night that I'm not sure I can accurately evaluate Mark Sanchez or the Eagles. They certainly didn't do anything to mess it up, so that's good. But I just can't pick against Rodgers at Lambeau right now. The guy is unreal.
Packers 31, Eagles 21
Seattle at Kansas City: The trap is set here. I think Vegas has to know that the public is going to pounce all over the defending champs as a pick em against a Chiefs team that leaves most people feeling "meh." But the Chiefs don't rely on their downfield passing game at all-- and that's the one thing you know Seattle likes to take away from offenses. It might not affect Alex Smith though. I'm leaning the other way here.
Chiefs 20, Seahawks 17
Atlanta at Carolina: Geeze, do I have to pick? Yucky game all around. I'll simply go with the team that looks a little more spry right now.
Falcons 26, Panthers 20
Cincinnati at New Orleans: Both Vegas and the world in general continue to absolve the Saints despite their iffy results in 2014. New Orleans is better at home than they are on the road, but they look very pedestrian to me overall. The defense is middling and the offense isn't slashing teams at their normal rate. Something is a little off. The Bengals got destroyed at home by Cleveland, but have had ten days to stew about it. I think 8 points is way too much here, given I'm not convinced the Saints are even the better team.
Saints 28, Bengals 23
Tampa Bay at Washington: Another game where the line looks way off to me. The Redskins GIVING 7.5 (or even 8.5 depending where you look) to ANYONE in the NFL? But the number has steadily climbed throughout the week; meaning money is going on Washington. Perhaps someone out there sees something I don't. I see this as a close match up. The Bucs do well against the run, and the relatively conservative Redskins offense makes it unlikely they will move the ball quickly. Skins in a tight one.
Redskins 23, Bucs 20
Denver at St. Louis: ATS, this is a pick on principle. Generally, the underdog is the best bet when an NFL spread goes to double digits. And this underdog is at home. And this underdog has played pretty well recently, save a major meltdown at the end of the game last week. And this underdog just made a QB change which I believe should improve their production. I don't like this underdog to win, but I do like this underdog to cover.
Broncos 30, Rams 23
San Francisco at New York Giants: The Giants offense is respectable and they get Rashard Jennings back this week which will help. The Niners are going to miss Patrick Willis immensely so I see NY putting up more points this week than you might think. But I also have zero trust in that Giants defense that just gut trucked in Seattle. Look for an abnormally high scoring game with the Niners escaping again.
49ers 29, Giants 27
Oakland at San Diego: My prediction is that the Raiders will not go 0-16. I also predict that I won't predict when the breakthrough will arrive.
Chargers 27, Raiders 17
Detroit at Arizona: Very interesting game; a possible NFC Championship preview? Eh, not going there. Both of these teams still have a lot to prove to me before I'm ready to take either of seriously as contenders to go to the Super Bowl. I'd obviously feel a lot better about the Cardinals if Palmer didn't go down. I already feel good about that Lions defensive front. Coin flip game, but I like the defense here.
Lions 21, Cardinals 20
New England at Indianapolis: It's an MVP showcase-- just about as good of a QB match-up as you will ever find. It's in the controlled environs of the dome so I expect both QB's to be sharp and on their game. I'm gaga for Andrew Luck and I admit it, but the Pats might be on one of their special little runs right now. Great one on Sunday Night.
Patriots 32, Colts 29
Pittsburgh at Tennessee: The Steelers had been playing way over their heads in recent weeks, so I'm not surprised that the Jets cold cocked them last week. No better remedy than the Titans who are possibly the most limited offensive team in the league. Steelers win ugly.
Steelers 23, Titans 17
Against the Spread (lock listed first):
1. Bengals (+8) vs. Saints
2. Rams (+10) vs. Broncos
3. 49ers (OVER 44) vs. Giants
4. Bills (+5) vs. Dolphins
Last Week: 8-5
Redskins: 6-3
ATS: 14-26 (Last Week: 1-3)
Lock: 6-4
The picks ATS are getting laughable. The NFL is impossible in general, but a bad year for me in the past has been 6 or 7 games below .500. Through ten weeks, I'm TWELVE below. Having said that, almost inexplicably, I continue a pretty strong trend of being able to hit the lock of the week. I'm on a solid, yet unspectacular pace picking the games SU-- failed in a colossal manner selecting the Panthers to upset the Eagles on Monday Night.
Buffalo at Miami: My Thursday night track record is just brutal. It's been a horror show. My apologies to Bills fans in advance, but I smell an upset down south.
Bills 23, Dolphins 20
Houston at Cleveland: If Ryan Fitzpatrick was starting this game, I'd feel very comfortable taking the three points here. With Mallet, I'm a little unsure. But it also presents the opportunity for Houston to REALLY catch the Browns napping. Cleveland put together a great defensive effort in Cincy last week, but I'm not sure where their greatness began and where Andy Dalton's ducks stopped. The Texans can run the ball and the Browns have trouble stopping it. Another upset pick here, albeit a shaky one.
Texans 22, Browns 20
Minnesota at Chicago: It's hard to not over-exaggerate in the moment, but to say that the Bears put together one of the most humiliating performances I've ever seen last Sunday night is pretty much right on point. That was disgusting, especially considering they were coming off a similarly eye-popping stomping in New England. The Bears are just a miserable mess right now and they are going nowhere. The question is whether or not they show a little pride this week and put together a decent outing against a below average Vikings outfit. I wouldn't touch this game with YOUR money, but if I had to make a pick....
Bears 27, Vikings 21
Philadelphia at Green Bay: Carolina was so horrendous on Monday night that I'm not sure I can accurately evaluate Mark Sanchez or the Eagles. They certainly didn't do anything to mess it up, so that's good. But I just can't pick against Rodgers at Lambeau right now. The guy is unreal.
Packers 31, Eagles 21
Seattle at Kansas City: The trap is set here. I think Vegas has to know that the public is going to pounce all over the defending champs as a pick em against a Chiefs team that leaves most people feeling "meh." But the Chiefs don't rely on their downfield passing game at all-- and that's the one thing you know Seattle likes to take away from offenses. It might not affect Alex Smith though. I'm leaning the other way here.
Chiefs 20, Seahawks 17
Atlanta at Carolina: Geeze, do I have to pick? Yucky game all around. I'll simply go with the team that looks a little more spry right now.
Falcons 26, Panthers 20
Cincinnati at New Orleans: Both Vegas and the world in general continue to absolve the Saints despite their iffy results in 2014. New Orleans is better at home than they are on the road, but they look very pedestrian to me overall. The defense is middling and the offense isn't slashing teams at their normal rate. Something is a little off. The Bengals got destroyed at home by Cleveland, but have had ten days to stew about it. I think 8 points is way too much here, given I'm not convinced the Saints are even the better team.
Saints 28, Bengals 23
Tampa Bay at Washington: Another game where the line looks way off to me. The Redskins GIVING 7.5 (or even 8.5 depending where you look) to ANYONE in the NFL? But the number has steadily climbed throughout the week; meaning money is going on Washington. Perhaps someone out there sees something I don't. I see this as a close match up. The Bucs do well against the run, and the relatively conservative Redskins offense makes it unlikely they will move the ball quickly. Skins in a tight one.
Redskins 23, Bucs 20
Denver at St. Louis: ATS, this is a pick on principle. Generally, the underdog is the best bet when an NFL spread goes to double digits. And this underdog is at home. And this underdog has played pretty well recently, save a major meltdown at the end of the game last week. And this underdog just made a QB change which I believe should improve their production. I don't like this underdog to win, but I do like this underdog to cover.
Broncos 30, Rams 23
San Francisco at New York Giants: The Giants offense is respectable and they get Rashard Jennings back this week which will help. The Niners are going to miss Patrick Willis immensely so I see NY putting up more points this week than you might think. But I also have zero trust in that Giants defense that just gut trucked in Seattle. Look for an abnormally high scoring game with the Niners escaping again.
49ers 29, Giants 27
Oakland at San Diego: My prediction is that the Raiders will not go 0-16. I also predict that I won't predict when the breakthrough will arrive.
Chargers 27, Raiders 17
Detroit at Arizona: Very interesting game; a possible NFC Championship preview? Eh, not going there. Both of these teams still have a lot to prove to me before I'm ready to take either of seriously as contenders to go to the Super Bowl. I'd obviously feel a lot better about the Cardinals if Palmer didn't go down. I already feel good about that Lions defensive front. Coin flip game, but I like the defense here.
Lions 21, Cardinals 20
New England at Indianapolis: It's an MVP showcase-- just about as good of a QB match-up as you will ever find. It's in the controlled environs of the dome so I expect both QB's to be sharp and on their game. I'm gaga for Andrew Luck and I admit it, but the Pats might be on one of their special little runs right now. Great one on Sunday Night.
Patriots 32, Colts 29
Pittsburgh at Tennessee: The Steelers had been playing way over their heads in recent weeks, so I'm not surprised that the Jets cold cocked them last week. No better remedy than the Titans who are possibly the most limited offensive team in the league. Steelers win ugly.
Steelers 23, Titans 17
Against the Spread (lock listed first):
1. Bengals (+8) vs. Saints
2. Rams (+10) vs. Broncos
3. 49ers (OVER 44) vs. Giants
4. Bills (+5) vs. Dolphins
