It is frightening to think of such a question, but is Iran going to be a Venezuela or North Korea or a Zimbabwe?
Up until now with the Democrats, Iran managed to get a little bit of freedom, with the new friendships. But now, we have Donald Trump and his rhetoric, promises a very tight noose around the Ayatollah business community.
Like the North Koreans, the Ayatollahs want to create nuclear bombs.
Like the Venezuelans, Iran has huge oil and gas reserves.
Venezuela has very strong relationships with Russian oil companies.
Venezuela has very strong relations with Chinese businesses.
Pro Chinese and Russian countries, are all suffering under very difficult economic situations. Just look at Zimbabwe.
Iran is very close to China and Russia. It's relationship with Europe will get less and less, as the thumb screws tighten, and sanctions tighten, for any European company, that deals with Iran and United States. That means the Ayatollah regime relationship with China and Russia will get even closer, like Zimbabwe and Venezuela.
The dark economic situation will not happen tomorrow. It might not happen next year, but the trend is beginning to take place. Expect to see some time in the future, people marching in the streets of Iran, as the economy suffers from very high inflation, just like in Venezuela today.
But at the moment the threat is not visible. All that can happen, is that the sale of oil will give Iran quite a lot of growth and that the moderate Ayatollahs will prevent any development of the nuclear bomb industry. But if the sanctions are imposed very quickly, the hard line Ayatollahs will make the argument, that they should get closer to China and Russia. That will create a Venezuelan or a North Korean scenario.
Obviously the western world does not want a humanitarian crisis in Iran. We're talking about 80 million people, who could seriously suffer under any duress, if the Ayatollahs are restricted to just trading with the Russians and Chinese.
So it is a very careful balance. The western world wants to feed Iran enough, to have the opposition groups gather a lot of strength against the Ayatollah government, and at the same time to restrict the Ayatollah government from doing any business for its own sake with anyone they want. They will clip its wings.
We all know that the shrewd independent business entrepreneurs in Iran, will always find a way to get the goods into Iran, from anywhere in the world and the dual economy will continue. They are the Ayatollah children, who live very comfortable lives, running around in Ferraris and Lamborghinis and then there's the rest of the population.
Finally we have the massive Ayatollah Rent-a-Crowds that march in the streets, shouting against Donald Trump, just like they have recently, which will make the western press feel that there's a massive popular support for the Ayatollahs. So expect the next shoe to drop on the Trump-Rouhani banter.
This has all happened before and will be the strategy for the Republicans, just like they did so under the George Bush administration, now that the Generals are in charge. The right wing in the US will then formulate it's foreign policy with three foes, Venezuela, Iran and North Korea. It will then be able to fully justify its massive expenditures on the military industrial complex as before.
I can only reminisce the days we had good relations with the US and pray to Ahuramazda.
Up until now with the Democrats, Iran managed to get a little bit of freedom, with the new friendships. But now, we have Donald Trump and his rhetoric, promises a very tight noose around the Ayatollah business community.
Like the North Koreans, the Ayatollahs want to create nuclear bombs.
Like the Venezuelans, Iran has huge oil and gas reserves.
Venezuela has very strong relationships with Russian oil companies.
Venezuela has very strong relations with Chinese businesses.
Pro Chinese and Russian countries, are all suffering under very difficult economic situations. Just look at Zimbabwe.
Iran is very close to China and Russia. It's relationship with Europe will get less and less, as the thumb screws tighten, and sanctions tighten, for any European company, that deals with Iran and United States. That means the Ayatollah regime relationship with China and Russia will get even closer, like Zimbabwe and Venezuela.
The dark economic situation will not happen tomorrow. It might not happen next year, but the trend is beginning to take place. Expect to see some time in the future, people marching in the streets of Iran, as the economy suffers from very high inflation, just like in Venezuela today.
But at the moment the threat is not visible. All that can happen, is that the sale of oil will give Iran quite a lot of growth and that the moderate Ayatollahs will prevent any development of the nuclear bomb industry. But if the sanctions are imposed very quickly, the hard line Ayatollahs will make the argument, that they should get closer to China and Russia. That will create a Venezuelan or a North Korean scenario.
Obviously the western world does not want a humanitarian crisis in Iran. We're talking about 80 million people, who could seriously suffer under any duress, if the Ayatollahs are restricted to just trading with the Russians and Chinese.
So it is a very careful balance. The western world wants to feed Iran enough, to have the opposition groups gather a lot of strength against the Ayatollah government, and at the same time to restrict the Ayatollah government from doing any business for its own sake with anyone they want. They will clip its wings.
We all know that the shrewd independent business entrepreneurs in Iran, will always find a way to get the goods into Iran, from anywhere in the world and the dual economy will continue. They are the Ayatollah children, who live very comfortable lives, running around in Ferraris and Lamborghinis and then there's the rest of the population.
Finally we have the massive Ayatollah Rent-a-Crowds that march in the streets, shouting against Donald Trump, just like they have recently, which will make the western press feel that there's a massive popular support for the Ayatollahs. So expect the next shoe to drop on the Trump-Rouhani banter.
This has all happened before and will be the strategy for the Republicans, just like they did so under the George Bush administration, now that the Generals are in charge. The right wing in the US will then formulate it's foreign policy with three foes, Venezuela, Iran and North Korea. It will then be able to fully justify its massive expenditures on the military industrial complex as before.
I can only reminisce the days we had good relations with the US and pray to Ahuramazda.
