The third most decorated constructor in the history of the sport is on the brink of reaching 19 years without a title. For perspective, 5 constructors have tasted victory in that 19 year span. Unless they make remarkable progress in the next few years, 2018 will mark their 20th season without a constructor's title.
The question now is, what's next for Great Britain's most storied constructor?
To answer just that, let's look at it through the anecdote of another great British team who rose and fell in F1.
The Backstory
Lotus F1 Team, once home to Ayrton Senna, Jim Clark, Mario Andretti, Nigel Mansel, Nelson Piquet and many more, tumbled out of the sport as a team in 2012. Their 7 world championships place them 4th on the all-time list, and 1 spot below our modern sleeping giants, McLaren. For the sake of a fair comparison, I won't be discussing modern Lotus (2010-2015) until the end.
Lotus began in 1958 at the storied asphalt of Monaco. 5 years after, they claimed their first title, adding six more concluding with the 1978 season. In this time they claimed 74 race victories and 102 poles. That's 3.7 race wins per year per 20 years. Not bad at all.
The Fall from Grace
Unlike Lotus, McLaren claimed their last driver's title in 2008, after their last constructor's title, and in a season they would have claimed the constructor's title if not for their SpyGate scandal.
In the season following their last constructor's title, Lotus finished 4th, eerily close to McLaren who finished 1 point out of fourth in the 2009 season. For Lotus, the road down was triggered by the death of their owner, Colin Chapman. Again, similar to how the "loss" (not dead, but no longer the team's spiritual leader) of Ron Denis has spiraled the team downward. In truth, McLaren's fall has been much swifter than Lotus' was. Lotus claimed 3rd place finishes in the championship as far along as 1987.
What's next?
For Lotus, it was all downhill from there. They switched to inferior engines (*cough* Honda *cough*) and kept switching team leaders. The team sputtered back into life with sporadic 5th place and 4th place finishes, but ironically fell on their sword after gambling on Mugen Honda engines.
No really, What's Next?
Well, for McLaren, the road is long and winding back to the top. The harshest reality they have to face is driver starvation. This is the phenomenon that occurs when top drivers no longer seek to drive for your team. Even if Vandoorne reaches the potential many claim he is capable of, could we really say he wouldn't leave for Red Bull, Ferrari, or Mercedes if he could? Lotus was elevated to maintaining good results after their last title by none other than Ayrton Senna. If McLaren can no longer attract the kind of drivers that win championships, it's unlikely they'll be able to win any.
If we go by what happened to Lotus, McLaren is doomed. Doomed to die out in the multi-million-dollar scrapyard F1 cars go to when their team falls into debt. My outlook is slightly different however. I'd like to take the case of 2012 Lotus as an example of what might happen. 2012 Lotus had the name, logo, and livery of a Lotus car, but in truth, was not owned by Lotus. Their results were exceptional all things considered, and they attracted a top driver named Kimi Raikkonen (you may have heard of him). For McLaren, the road seems similar. If/when they are bought it is unlikely they will be rebranded for the sake of maintaining brand recognition, but it seems McLaren is destined to succumb to overseas ownership in the years to come.
Happy holidays, and as always, thank you for reading!
