Greenhouse gas emissions will slow onset of the next Ice Age, according to British scientists.

The latter account glacial period ended about 11.5 thousand years ago, and experts still argue about when will the next one.

A group of British researchers published in the journal Nature Geoscience article, which presents new data on the effects of fluctuations of Earth's orbit, and many other factors to climate change.

Their findings suggest that the next ice age would occur over the next 1,500 years, but this does not happen due to saturation of the earth's atmosphere by greenhouse gases.

"At current levels of carbon dioxide, even in the event of termination of emissions, we face a prolonged interglacial period, whose duration will be determined by natural processes responsible for the reduction of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere," - said the head of Luke Skinner, a member of the University of Cambridge.

According to Dr. Skinner's group, which included scientists from University College London, University of Florida and University of Bergen in Norway, a new ice age will begin when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will decrease to 240 ppm (ppm is literally translated as "ppm") , ie, reach a level of 240 molecules of CO2 per million molecules of atmospheric gases. Currently, this figure is 390 ppm.

Other scientists argue that even if the immediate cessation of greenhouse emissions, CO2 levels remain elevated for at least a thousand years, and the oceans will absorb so much heat that the polar ice caps melt and sea levels rise.

The main reasons for the onset and termination of glacial periods are small changes in Earth's orbit, orbiting the Sun. They are called Milankovitch cycles after the Serbian astronomer Milutin Milankovitch, and geophysics, who described them almost 100 years ago.

However, the impact of these factors does not fully explain the complex model global climate change, although the Milankovitch cycles play an important role in climatology and paleoclimatology. By themselves, changes in these orbital parameters are not sufficient to cause an increase in the average temperature of 10 degrees, which is accompanied by a cessation of the glacial period.

The initial small changes in temperature increases the impact of natural emissions of greenhouse gases caused by the evaporation of wetlands, as well as the absorption of gases the world's oceans are exempt from the ice.

It is also clear that each of the glacial epoch differs from the previous because the orbital perturbations is followed in various complex combinations. Only once every 400,000 years, they lead to approximately the same conditions.

Using the analysis of orbital data, as well as samples of rocks from the ocean floor, researchers have discovered a group of Dr. Skinner's episode in Earth's geological history, which they called Marine Isotope Stage 19c or 19c phase isotope dating of the seabed, which is removed from us at 780 000 years and most suggestive of modern climatic conditions.

Then go to the ice age was marked by a rapid succession of warming and cooling that occurred in the northern and southern hemispheres. They were the cause of changes in sea currents.

If the analogy with the period of the current conditions MIS19c confirmed, the advent of a new ice age must occur within 1500 years. But only provided that the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will be determined only by natural factors. As we know, deal with this situation is somewhat different.

Already debated theory that anthropogenic factors, including the growth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, prevent onset of the Ice Age and are, therefore, positive impact.

Back in 1999 known astronomers Sir Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinghe pointed out that a new ice age would lead to mass extinction of people, as would make it impossible to agriculture in vast areas.