2021-10-14 16:42
Politicians, Stimulus and Inflation All go together Especially, If the Fed Chairman Caves In: An Ode to William McChesney Martin (l902-1980) Who Didn’t It seems that offering “jo… Read More
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The Spellman Report - Where the Economy and Markets Meet
2021-06-26 04:17
Those with an econ course under their belt typically have been exposed to Milton Friedman’s famous take on money and inflation which is: “Inflation is always and everywhere a mon… Read More
2021-05-07 05:09
The federal deficit has become a front-page issue. The deficit was recently running at an amount equal to 15% of GDP per year — even before the Biden spending proposals. They are… Read More
2021-03-08 00:19
The competition between the political parties in the US, has caused both of them to claim their policies strengthen economic growth. But you should realize they are not talking about t… Read More
2020-12-05 08:17
While there were other issues at play, the 2020 election to a large extent became a debate, if you will, of socialism vs. capitalism. The candidates presented starkly different visions of th… Read More
2020-08-14 15:50
Eighty-five years ago, prior to Keynes, economists did not have a theory for or experience with adding demand to an economy in a recession. So how did they look at the means of encouraging e… Read More
2020-06-27 03:37
The intractable Great Depression some 85 years ago led to the intellectual thought that perhaps it’s possible for a government to “policy” its way out of a deep economic ho… Read More
2020-04-30 02:43
The Coronavirus and the federal government’s response to it have set off free-floating anxiety, which in turn has affected economic and financial market optimism and pricing — so… Read More
2020-04-04 00:00
It’s obvious the economy has taken a large hit. Not just in the US but globally. When demanders and suppliers are told to go home what else should one expect? The question is what lie… Read More
2020-02-15 01:39
Observers and investors are accustomed to business cycles. That’s because cyclical patterns have dominated not only during the post-World War II era, but also for decades before that:… Read More
2019-11-22 23:59
The Macro-Financial Market Responses as We Knew Them Have Changed: Why Interest Rates Are at the All-Time Low in US Financial History This blog is about interest rates in US debt mark… Read More
2019-07-12 22:29
Since World War II, economic observers have been trained to expect rising inflation and interest rates as the economy begins to grow out of a recession. The typical sequence would unfold lik… Read More
2019-04-07 07:08
The European Central Bank (ECB) recently announced that it is back in the business of attempting to stimulate a moribund Euro economy with yet another dose of monetary steroids. Apparently… Read More
2019-01-04 21:43
It’s not likely to be news to anyone reading this blog that the US equity market has been consumed by volatility and in a downdraft for the last several months. Given the lags between… Read More
2018-11-19 14:45
It’s time for a new perspective. The Great Recession that began in 2008 was deep and long, and the recovery that began in 2009 has now finally concluded. The large gap between what is… Read More
2018-10-06 04:03
Economic cycles have been around for a long time, and the National Bureau of Economic Researchkeeps score, so to speak. US cyclical expansions since 1900 have averaged just short of 5 years… Read More
2018-08-10 01:51
Tariffs revision designed to cure trade deficits have become a live and contentious economic policy issue. Despite the ripples it creates, confronting the trade deficit is long overdue given… Read More
2018-07-01 04:52
The economy is on a tear. There are many “next new things” coming to the marketplace, generating private investment to produce new goods that are in high demand. Firms that inves… Read More
2018-05-19 14:50
In the 1930s, Keynesian economics laid out a new approach to reviving a stagnant economy. Many countries have since followed this game plan, a trend with lasting implications for future econ… Read More
2018-03-14 17:16
We all have in our heads the instinctive notion that more money circulating in an economy is inflationary. Indeed the notion of the proportionality of money and prices exists in academia as… Read More
2018-01-22 07:02
The mania surrounding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is not unprecedented. In l841, the Scottish journalist Charles Mackay wrote “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of… Read More
2017-11-22 03:35
This year has seen high after new high in US stock price indexes and this comes on top of a run that dates back to March, 2009. There was a time when rising stock prices with or… Read More
2017-10-28 00:29
In September over three evening I presented a trio of lectures regarding why financial pricing has been exuberant as compared to a slow growth economy. The videos of the slow growth economy… Read More
2017-09-24 19:18
The Baby Boomer Dilemma, Investing in These Times The disconnect between the economy and financial markets while disconcerting has become more so as the Fed this week announced they wi… Read More
2017-09-03 19:04
A Three Evening Lecture Series on the Great Disconnect between Financial Markets and the Economy These days, I’m frequently asked to reconcile the current state of affairs in which fin… Read More
2017-08-31 04:11
Announcement: A Three-Evening Lecture Series on the Economy and Financial Markets These days, I’m frequently asked to reconcile the current state of affairs in which the economy is una… Read More
2017-07-07 16:36
So You Think the Federal Reserve Controls Interest Rates? The Second Coming of the Conundrum The mention of globalism causes most people to think of open trade, but globalism has another dim… Read More
2017-06-03 02:59
There have been many recent references to US stock prices relative to earnings (P/Es) being uncomfortably high. Not in absolute terms, mind you, but relative to historic norms considering th… Read More
2017-05-04 05:42
The Federal Reserve responded to the spectacular financial meltdown of 2008 by putting a bottom under the cascading financial prices. This was accomplished by buying, buying, and buying some… Read More
2017-03-17 16:27
This monthly SpellmanReport is an interview with Lacy Hunt, Ph.D., a prominent economist and investment manager noted for his views on inflation and deflation, interest rates, and monetary p… Read More
2017-02-17 15:40
The Keynesian logic of lowering interest rates to cure a recession was put to the ultimate test starting in 2008. Interest rates in the US approached zero (and negative in Europe), yet they… Read More
2016-12-09 22:51
LBJ’s Great Society in 1965 marked the beginning of the government’s tendency to promise whatever America wanted and to find a way, however devious, to finance it. The Federal Go… Read More
2016-11-18 22:02
The Fed reacted to the Great Recession with a large scale increase in the monetary base. This creates expectations ranging from runaway inflation to a concern that a recession will follow… Read More
2016-10-21 21:30
Financial crises, à la 2008, are an invitation for regulation that carries far-reaching and unintended consequences. Banks across the developed world are being forced to hold more cas… Read More
2016-09-09 22:34
To prevent a reoccurrence of the 2008 financial meltdown, the banks of the G-20 countries must now operate under new rules that encourages substantially higher cash holdings. This changes b… Read More
2016-07-29 22:39
Negative interest rates are more of a problem than a solution: They deprive banks of the ability to pay interest on their deposits, and they also prevent countries like Italy from being able… Read More
2016-06-17 18:55
That the developed world’s governments are accumulating outsized debt shouldn’t be news to anyone. Unless there are some tricks up the government’s sleeves — and they… Read More
2016-05-20 19:21
Tension is building among stock investors. Stock prices have levitated while the most fundamental determinant of stock price support— an uplift in corporate earnings — has gone… Read More
2016-03-25 20:46
For any good or commodity, if supply increases and there are too few takers, the price will fall. If supply increases further and demand is still low, prices can fall all the way to zero. If… Read More
2016-01-23 01:57
In the early days of open global capital markets, capital was attracted from the developed economies to the low-wage emerging markets with the promise of building a manufacturing base to exp… Read More
2015-12-12 18:17
At the moment, the question of whether or not the Fed should be raising interest rates has become a much ballyhooed event for which every investor, financial writer, and taxi cab driver has… Read More
2015-11-06 22:14
We can chastise the Federal Reserve for being unable to get itself to move off of a zero interest rate (because doing so has harmful side effects), but the Fed has no other way to influence… Read More
2015-09-26 03:28
In 1993, there was a great debate carried live on national TV between then-Vice President Al Gore and Dallas entrepreneur Ross Perot. The issue was the pros and cons of going global. Equally… Read More
2015-08-07 22:39
For a country with little penchant to tax and a greater penchant to spend, financing its fiscal deficit is an ongoing chore. When it comes to financing its deficits, governments have tricks… Read More
2015-06-25 14:37
Driving the economy to fuller employment is a macroeconomic policy success. But it comes at a cost of higher employee costs and generally reduced profit and stock returns. Some firms, in th… Read More
2015-05-23 16:30
Baby Boomer entitlements are now upon us with an acceleration in the government debt overhang. In a novel approach to debt containment, the European Central Bank pays high enough prices for… Read More
2015-04-05 22:11
The developed world economies have high government debt loads and as a result retard economic growth. The adoption of central bank quantitative ease (QE) is billed as a monetary policy but i… Read More
2015-02-27 21:33
It’s long been in the DNA of market observers that when money growth outpaces the economy’s growth, booms are created and so are busts. The latest is the oil boombustology with g… Read More
2015-01-09 15:49
With the U. S. economy having achieved lift-off momentum, the Federal Reserve has ended it epic and historic bond buy known as quantitative ease. The corollary reflex is that interest rates… Read More
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