Friday the market was bull. Almost all up (Except the Dow).
But the up was very weak, not as expected.
RESULTS.
- Dow Jones 11,492 -7 -0.06%
- Nasdaq 2,643 +6 +0.21%
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- Standard and Poor's 1,244 +1 +0.08%
- Gold 1,385 +6 +0.41%
- USD 80.38 +0.36 +0.05%
- IPC 37,997 +165 +0.43%
IPC
Still in lateral channel. Wainting for NY to resolve. Losing a little bit oversold.
Not new news in this index.
The market today
I hope not sound stupid, but the market has three possible paths (SPX):
- Up searching the 1,335 (see, at the end of the post, a chart from december 3th).
- Lateral between 1,247 and 1,233
- Down searching, at least, 1,173.
On the bear side.
a) CPC and CPCE very low for many consecutive days. This should indicate a top near. Post. dec. 15th and dec. 16th.
b) VIX:VXV very low indicating a possible top near. Post. dec. 16th.
c) 7 green candles in a row. Indicating a top near or a very strong trend. (Should be read with other indicators). Post. dec 14th.
d) Highs of 52 weeks very high indicating a possible top near. Also not conclusive but indicates something. Post. dec. 8th.
e) Hindenburg Omen Confirmed. Bear in the mid-term. Post. dec. 15th.
f) You can indentificate many divergences in the indexes.
g) SPX very overbought for many days. This is not conclusive and should be accompanied with other indicators. Chart of Bespoke.
On the bull side.
a) According with Stocktiming the liquidity is still flowing in the market. This override other techincals indicators.
b) The statistics is very bull for year end.
b1.) Next week is short (NY) and tipically the volume is low. This favors the bulls.
b.2) The New Years week has an average profit near 1% and almost 70% positive. (Considering the Dow from 1900 to date.)
b.3) The Christmas week has an average profit of 0.69% and 68% positive. (For reference an average week has a profit of 0.09% and 55% positive).
c) VIX is touching a support but maybe can fall lower (if so is good for the SPX).
The experts
Have for all:
- Deutsche Bank for the bulls.
- Citigroup for the bears.
- UBS for the lateral market.
Bespoke chart
¿It is clear how complicated is determine the direction of the market in this moment?
CONCLUSIONS
- Wait and see mode.
- For monday slightly bear:
- After a day all up, usually the next day is red (Generally a small red and lonely candle).
- The last day with bear seasonality for the SPX in the year.
Holidays 24th and 31th of december. Next two weeks are short.
Appendix
SPX (Chart from december 3th)
IPC Sandard and Poors Dow Jones
This post first appeared on Mexico Stock Exchange (MSE Or BMV), please read the originial post: here
