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Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jul 18, 2018)

FIIs were net sellers of equity during the first two trading days this week, but net buyers today. Their total net selling was worth Rs 12 Billion. DIIs were net sellers on Mon. Jul 16 but net buyers on the next two days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 7.7 Billion, as per provisional figures.

India's WPI inflation touched 5.8% in Jun '18, compared with 4.4% in May '18 and an upwardly revised 3.6% in Apr '18. It was the highest level touched by WPI since Dec '13 (5.9%). Higher crude oil, cotton, vegetable prices and electricity tariffs were the main culprits.

In a classic case of 'sell on news', HUL stock dropped by more than 100 points after announcing good Q1 (Jun '18) results. Good numbers were also declared by Federal Bank, Bandhan Bank, ICICI Lombard, Zee Entertainment. Jindal Stainless, Cyient, Hindustan Media Ventures, GM Breweries came out with disappointing numbers.


In last week's Technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty, a few technical reasons were cited to warn bulls. The index subsequently crossed above 11050 on intra-day basis three occasions, but failed to close above 11025.

The 'resistance zone' between 10950 and 11120 is being used by bears to make a last stand. The index is trading well above its three rising EMAs and the (purple) up trend line in a bull market. So, expect the index to cross above the 'resistance zone' to a new lifetime high sooner than later.

Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is Moving Sideways above its signal line. RSI is moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is about to fall from its overbought zone. 

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 27.28 - which is much higher than its long-term average and in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is oscillating in neutral zone, hinting at some index consolidation or correction.

Oil's price has moderated a bit. But rising inflation may force RBI to raise interest rates during its Aug '18 monetary policy meeting. Manufacturing activity is not showing any significant uptick. The macroeconomic environment is not conducive to growth.

Investors should be cautiously optimistic and remain stock and sector specific in their buying, because the rally from the Mar '18 low has not been broad-based. 

(Note: Thinking of buying quality mid-cap and small-cap stocks but not sure which ones to pick? Subscribe to my Monthly Investment Newsletter. Paid subscriptions are being offered to blog visitors, followers and subscribers for three more days only - till Jul 21, 2018. Contact me at [email protected] for details.)


This post first appeared on Stock Market Charts | India Mutual Funds Investmen, please read the originial post: here

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Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jul 18, 2018)

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