Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the RBC Canadian Open
The 2017 RBC Canadian Open Fantasy Preview
If you were to build a sort of Frankenstein’s model of the ultimate golfer, you’d certainly choose parts of Tiger Woods (probably not his life choices mind you), sprinkle in some Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer, and maybe even find room for the short game of Phil Mickelson.
You would be tempted to include the putting of Jordan Spieth certainly, but you would definitely want his heart and his courage. Like the Tin Man and Lion from the Wizard of Oz, he followed his own path down the Yellow Brick Road to Open Championship glory on Sunday.
But it was a journey paved with obstacles; not least playing the front nine in +3 as the chasing pack slowly closed in. At the thirteenth hole, he sliced his drive into an unplayable lie at the bottom of one of Royal Birkdale’s monumental mounds, and had to take a penalty drop about 50 yards further back from the driving range.
Spieth powered that to the edge of the green, chipped close and then drained a putt for a bogey five. His playing partner, Matt Kuchar, took the lead for the very first time at this point.
But did Spieth crumble, just like he had at The Masters in 2016? Not a bit of it: he played the next four holes in birdie-eagle-birdie-birdie to secure his third major title and three-quarters of the Grand Slam. Not bad for a 23-year-old who, ahem, isn’t the best off the tee!
And kudos to Kuch, too. The gentle giant was never outside the top three of The Open Championship 2017, and but for Spieth’s magnificence late on Sunday surely would have been celebrating a first major title.
In slightly less glamorous surrounds, Grayson Murray triumphed in the PGA TOUR’s run-off event, the Barbasol Championship, by pipping Tag Ridings and Scott Stallings to glory. It was Murray’s maiden title victory, and just the latest of the Web.com Tour Class of ’16 graduates to enter the main tour’s winning enclosure.
This week we’re switching our focus from England to Canada for the RBC Canadian Open, an event that gets a pretty rough slot on the PGA TOUR following the British Open action. Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker, both RBC ambassadors, have won two of the last four editions, but other than that a recent list of champions featuring Jhonattan Vegas, Tim Clark, and Carl Pettersson tells its own tale.
Still, the winner receives an automatic invite to The Masters, so there’s plenty for players of all statures to get stuck into this week.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results from The Open Championship
We didn’t run with Spieth as the horse pick, but we we’re able to stack Kuchar and Grace which led to some nice cash winnings last week.
All seven of our our main picks made the cut and Kuchar ended up in solo second with 100 fantasy points. With such talent-stacked field Kuch seemed to fly under the radar but our predictions for the PGA TOUR veteran were spot-on:
“Matt Kuchar’s precise ball striking is tailor-made for The Open, and this Birkdale track could not be better suited to his game.
A brilliant scrambler who ranks highly for bogey avoidance, Kuch has only missed one cut in his last 18 major starts, which highlights just how much he turns it on when the pressure mounts. His performances in the Ryder Cup are testament to that.
Here’s a fun fact: Kuchar is the highest grossing current PGA TOUR professional that is yet to win a major, and while Augusta is the likely destination of that run being broken he has still finished T9 and T15 in two of his last five Open starts.
You will struggle to find a more consistent pro anywhere in the world than the likeable 39-year-old; his last five starts have yielded finishes of 4-16-4-12-9.”
Brandon Grace’s (T6) impressive 62 on Saturday helped him earn far more fantasy points than a lot of the other popular picks in his low $8,000 range…and he proved to be a solid sleeper pick.
Lastly, defending champ Stenson made some noise for us this week with a solid T11 finish.
The RBC Canadian Open Field
In a post-major week the field quality is always going to be hit and miss, but the Canadian Open looks to be well-stocked with an eclectic bunch of players.
Some 22 will make their way from Royal Birkdale to Glen Abbey, including Dustin Johnson, Kevin Chappell, Charley Hoffman, and RBC ambassador Matt Kuchar, as will a number of those who competed in the Barbasol Championship.
Former Canadian Open winner Brandt Snedeker is listed in the field, although whether he turns out after withdrawing from the Open Championship with injury remains to be seen.
Two-time tournament champion Jim Furyk will be joined by the reigning champ Jhonattan Vegas, while a healthy home contingent led by Adam Hadwin, David Hearn, and Graeme DeLaet will be hoping to end a Canadian drought in this event that dates back to 1954.
This Week’s Course Preview
Glen Abbey has hosted more Canadian Opens than any other course – 28 in all, and it used to be the main venue until the Royal Canadian Golf Association decided to roll out a rotating host policy.
But we’re back at Glen Abbey, as we were in 2013 and 2015-16, and the overriding impression is that this is a track the players enjoy coming back to.
Measuring 7,252 yards, finally the players have a Par 72 to sink their teeth into after a glut of Par 70s in the past few weeks. The course features numerous elevation changes, with the back nine including the famous ‘Valley Holes – such as the eleventh, whose tee shot is played onto a fairway some 60 yards below, and then the three holes from fourteen through sixteen which are played along Sixteen Mile Creek.
The fairways are generally considered to be a forgiving width, with small-ish, fast-ish Bentgrass greens – protected by deep bunkers – offering the track’s main protection from scoring. This is a driver-heavy course featuring four Par 5s, three of which come in the last six holes played.
Conditions tend to dictate how easy scoring is. With small, shallow greens, the players will be hoping for rain to soften the surface, otherwise landing on the dancefloor – and staying there – becomes difficult in drier conditions. In 2016, Jason Day, who won here in 2015 ad would finish T14 a year later, said his theory of beating the fast set-up was to drive the ball as far as possible, with a wedge shot easier to control than a longer distance iron. But playing out of the rough is regarded as a no-no as well….
This Glen Abbey course is a tough one to work out!
Weather Forecast for Oakville, Ontario
The omens look good for a decent week of weather in Oakville. There is rain around on Monday, but that should be dried by a couple of days of sunshine through Tuesday and Wednesday.
If softer conditions are an advantage at Glen Abbey, then perhaps the late/early draw players will have an edge. According to the early forecast, rain showers are set to sweep in around lunchtime on Thursday and continue throughout the day and into the night – stopping in time for the Friday AM tee-off. The daytime of Friday is set to be hot with spells of clear sunshine, so the surface will dry out during the day.
The weekend is set fair, with little rain and light winds predicted on Saturday and Sunday. As ever, take these forecasts with a pinch of salt as they can change right up to the first tee!
Last Year’s Results from the RBC Canadian Open
Not for the first time in a Canadian Open edition, a player came from miles back in the field on Sunday to overtake everyone and get their hands on the trophy.
In 2016 it was Jhonattan Vegas, who ended a five-year drought of silverware to finally get a second ‘W’ to his name.
It was the Venezuelan’s closing salvo of 64 that ultimately got the job done, and it was a case of the early bird catching the worm as Vegas birdied five of the opening six holes to usurp his nearest challengers.
Others had chances to challenge – Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson finished in a tie for second, while Martin Laird must have been kicking himself. He only needed to birdie one of the final two holes to force a play-off, but he could only muster par at both attempts as Vegas snuck home by a single stroke.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the RBC Canadian Open this Week
If you are enjoying an influx of cash to stake after a successful Open Championship, this Canadian Open is a handy tournament to reinvest it in.
A weak field and slightly less course history than we are used to give smart DFS gamers an advantage over the fair weather golf fan, so get stuck into these two DraftKings contests to make the most of it:
- PGA $550k Dogleg: Missed out on the $1 million top prize in The Open contest? Not to worry, you could trouser $100k in this contest which should – theoretically at least – be easier to win.
- PGA $35k Scramble: We can extend our advantage further by entering a three-entry max contest, and for $20 entry here you could win a welcome $4,000 top prize. Finish in the top 15% and you’ll double your money as a bare minimum.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the RBC Canadian Open
Motivation must be a key factor this week, you might think. On the back of a really tough slog at times over at Royal Birkdale for The Open Championship, the majority of those involved have a choice between heading back to the US to enjoy some rest and recuperation, or chuck the bag onto a flight to Canada to try their luck there. For those who played in the Barbasol there is an advantage to be had of less travel and zero jetlag.
So let’s take a quick look at the 2016 Canadian Open and those performed best. There were 21 players who finished inside the top 20 (including ties), and the week prior to the event:
- Played in The Open: 8 (3 finished in the top 25 at Troon, 1 in the top 50, 2 in the top 60 and 2 missed the cut).
- Played the Barbasol Championship: 11 (2 finished in the top 5 there, 3 in the top 25, 3 in the top 50, 2 in the top 60 and 1 missed the cut).
So our conclusion might be that form in the Barbasol is equally – if not more – important than showing form at The Open, which naturally is a whole different style of golf. Of those who finished in the top 25 at the British Open before going top 20 at the Canadian, Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker have both won this tournament before and Dustin Johnson can play good golf anywhere, any time.
So, our takeaway is that we don’t necessarily have to steer clear of those jetting in from Liverpool, but perhaps the guys who played well at the Barbasol Championship last week are worth more than just a second look.
What did Jhonattan Vegas do well on his way to glory 12 months ago? Most eye-catchingly, he ranked third for Greens in Regulation, and clearly on these smaller landing areas that is hugely important. But making GIR comes from what you do off the tee, and in ranking 11th for Driving Distance and 55th for Driving Accuracy we see that Vegas opted for the ‘hit it long, get it closer to the green’ option rather than laying up off the peg.
But instinct tells us there might be more than one way to tame Glen Abbey as Snedeker, who has enjoyed plenty of success here, is more of the laying up type. If you want to try and get the best of both worlds, look to the Total Driving stat with an equal weighting between distance and accuracy.
We mentioned earlier that this is the first time in a while that these players will have had four Par 5s to work with, and -8 of Vegas’ -12 winning tally came on these longer holes. All in all, the Venezuelan made 23 birdies, 38 pars and 11 bogeys.
For those who enjoy a correlating course link, how about this for consistency between Glen Abbey and Torrey Pines, home of the Farmers Insurance Open. Day, Snedeker, and Tiger Woods have won both, Bubba Watson and Jon Rahm have finished second in the Canadian and won the Farmers while Nathan Green, winner of this event in 2009, finished runner-up at Torrey Pines in 2006. The recent past is littered with correlations between these two tracks, so don’t be afraid to pour over recent results from the Farmers.
Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The RBC Canadian Open
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)
Total Top 3s
Total Top 10s
Total Top 25s
Total Winners Picked
Total Runners-Up Picked
Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)
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