Democrats have, for my lifetime, held the majority of registered Voters. Every indicator says they are likely to win the House in 2018. But, even Democrats are afraid of losing. Why? Because they are Democrats. But is that fair?

OK. To start with, you never say you are assured to win in politics. Not only are such predication dangerous, but can also cause overconfident and voters to stay at home. Secondly, conventional wisdom may say they win, but the 2016 Election defied convention. Still, there are reasons why Democrats are disadvantaged in every election.

It’s a Rigged

In my first How We Got Here post, I described how the Constitution intentionally favor rural voter over urban voters, which the Republican Party has over the decades engineered their message to appeal to. Also, their big win in 2010 allowed them to gerrymander districts to prolong their advantage in the House. Finally, the party and their voters have paid more attention to local elections which gives them legal and rather disturbing control over the voting process: election law, voting registration, the location and number of voting booths, voter id laws, etc. Of the five Presidents to win by only the Electoral College (John Quincy Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump), Bush and Trump represent over a third. A Republican President has not won his first term by the popular vote in 30 years.

Democrats Don’t Vote

If Democrats voted as reliably and Republicans, they would win most elections because there is just more of them. Depending on how you count, Democrats have 4 to 6 percent of the population over Republicans. If you go by party affiliation the percentage is higher, but independents have the plurality. If you by count by party registration, the Democratic Party is the largest group, but by a smaller margin. That is because most states require you select a party to vote in primaries which mean many of those registered Democrats are really independents. Even so, that margin should be enough to overcome the Republicans’ structural advantages.

The common reason given for Democrats voting less is demographics. Democrats include the majority of non-whites and younger voter who historically vote less. While most older voters are republican, who are historically the most reliable voters. (African Americans are an exception as they are very reliable voters.) I would also say that democrat vote more for Republican candidates than the other way around. However, that point requires me to go into a lengthy analysis of cognitive psychology, culture, and history.

Also, there is some suggestion that urban voters come turnout less than rural ones. But that would have to be teased out by the other factors mentions. Urban voters include more non-whites, younger adults, and are easily ‘rigged’ by reducing voting booths, registration regulations, and redistricting.

American is Biased

Besides all that I have detailed, you will still hear the most, “Democrats will screw it up.” There is a prevailing belief that Democrats are more prone to mistakes or at least worse at campaigning and politics. Until recently, I would have said that as well. But I have begun to reconsider. I don’t think Democrats make more mistakes than Republicans. I think that they count more.

I heard Republicans regularly refer to Obama as the “worst president ever” with no rebuttal, while his predecessor got us into an unnecessary war and, I would argue, contributed to the Great Recession. Clinton was pilloried for saying “deplorable’ while her opponent said and continues to say, the most disgraceful statements I have ever heard from anyone of political power. Al Franken must leave office for touching butts, while a Republican pedophile can run for the Senate. (Yes, I could also point our “grab them by the….” Donald, but I’ll get carpal tunnel pointing times this President was not held to account.) This goes to all levels. Republican congressmen can keep their office by showing a picture of Nancy Pelosi, while a Democrat candidate must be careful not to say the Presidents name.

Now, I can point out areas where Democrats are given clemency where Republicans are not. For example, Democrats historically have survived sexual scandals (provided it was consensual) better than Republicans. But even that is less so given the current President. I’ll also say that my evidence is anecdotal, but I invite you to look for the same pattern. I bet you’ll find it. If you’ve ever had to deal with racism, bigotry, or just being the disfavored sibling or employee, you’ll see quickly what I’m talking about.

Part of the reason for this disparity is that Democrats are more likely to hold their own to account than Republicans do. To explain why this happens requires me to go into that same lengthy analysis I alluded to before. Sometimes this is part of the democratic strategy. Racism is not tolerated, and Al Franken left office so the Democratic Party can say it is morally superior. You might also point to racism and bigotry because democrats field more diverse candidates. However, saying that this bias exists because more Democrats are non-white, non-Christion, female or gay just supports my point. False equivalency and what I described in Not Invented Here are also contributing reason. However, I would point to a more sinister cause. For decades, conservatives and Republicans have launched a continues propaganda campaign demonizing Democrats. Yes, I’m talking about Fox News, right-wing radio, and other media outlets.

That said, Republicans focusing mistakes by Democrats is no surprise. Nor is it the Democrats are quick to criticize themselves. What concerns me is that the bias must be held by independents. Otherwise, Democrats would win more.

The Future

So, what can Democrats do about this? Well to fix the structural disadvantages, Democrats must win more local and off-year elections. This makes the upcoming 2018 elections important, and the 2010 elections critical.

Changing demographics is a big hope for the Democratic Party. As the percentage of non-whites increase, Democrats should expect more of the vote. However, by my observations, I would advocate caution. The vote share should increase, but maybe by not as much as you would think. As minorities gain equality and see political success, they will vote more reliably. However, don’t assume all those new votes go to Democrats. Equality and political success also mean voting more as an independent. (That’s a good thing, even if not for Democrats.) Getting younger voters to vote is fighting human nature. You can engage young voters in some elections, but that is not a sustainable strategy.

The good news is that the young voters today become older voters in the future. As I previously pointed out, if you are between 23 and 36, your most likely memories of Democrats is killing Osama Bin Laden, saving the economy, and providing healthcare. Your memories of Republicans are an unnecessary war, wrecking the economy, and Trump. There might be a hitch. As voters get older, there is a risk that they become more conservative.

Of course, Democrats could work on their messaging to appeal to other demographics. There was a time when farmers, poor whites, and the military were Democrats with policies still held by the party today. Surely, if they can just figure out how to communicate with them, those voters can be won back. Really? That hasn’t worked for a generation. Why would it work now? Hopefully, the Democrats have finally figured that out. However, the same principles repackaged could work. The problem is that such repackaging will have compromises that need to be sold to the more far left part of the party.

The point is that these problems, though difficult, are solvable. Bias is the real challenge. While Fox News is the most watched cable network, too many Americans are being influenced by demonizing propaganda. Re-messaging or re-packaging does not help when your intended target is only listening to the ones that demonize you.

This was not an accident or achieved in a single election. Since Reagan (and probably before) conservatives and Republicans have been honing their message to appeal, not to the most voters, but the most reliable voters and whose votes count more. They built media organizations to promote their message and, more importantly, isolate viewers from contrary information. And with each win, they’ve worked every legal means to protect their advantage. You must expect that it will take more than one election to undo this.

There is, of course, the conventional strategy. The one you so often hear from a Democrat spokesman. Reach out to the other side. Make them feel listened to, and eventually, they will come to understand how Democrat policies are better. In time, reason will take over. So, let me ask. How’s that been working out for you?