The Kenyan people have with resounding clarity rejected Kenya's draft constitution and thereby caused the leader of the "Yes" campaign, President Mwai Kibaki, a humiliating defeat. The new constitution would have introduced the post of a prime minister and provided greater rights for women, devolution and land reform. The president has therefore argued that the new constitution would be a modernising measure. In the eyes of an outsider there were, nevertheless, also number of not so modern reforms like banning same-sex marriages, and outlawing abortion - unless permitted by parliament. However, the key issue in the constitution is according to most analysts the introduction of the post of a prime minister. Although this was originally a move to devolve the powers of the presidency it was by the opposition seen as quite the opposite - an attempt to strengthen Kibaki's own position as president.

Mr Kibaki came to power in 2002 by promising to introduce free primary education, to deliver a new constitution and to end corruption. Although Kibaki has introduced free primary education, corruption is widely held to be widespread, also within the government. A voter, Yonah Opiyo, told Reuters "We were voting to show our frustrations, we were rebelling against the government's empty promises".

Not everyone voted with the difficult technical structures of the executive powers in mind. A Maasai man interviewed by the Citizen argued that the question of granting equal rights to women was enough to vote no. “No real man takes an order from a woman”. It therefore seems as if President Kibaki had the rather impossible task of facing his normal political opposition, a disillusioned electorate, as well as the conservative forces in the country.

So what is next? Can Kibaki remain in power after splitting the cabinet over the Referendum and being humiliated by the defeat? The referendum was not a vote of confidence on the president’s three year-old administration. However, it is obvious that many Kenyans voted "No" as a vote of dissatisfaction with the work of the government. This surely means trouble for Kibaki, but there may be an even bigger problem for the ruling elite – that of true democracy!

Kenyan political analyst, Martin Kimani, argued before the election that “whatever the answer, what I am taking out of the situation is the extent to which Kenyans have become increasingly comfortable with the idea of competitive politics being decided at the ballot box.” Violence and reports of irregularities surrounding the referendum were very limited, and there have been no jailing of opposition politicians like in Uganda.

President Kibaki therefore rightly argued that the referendum was a big step in the democracy of Kenya and even in defeat stated that "I would like to congratulate all of you for participating peacefully in this historic occasion". This neverthless means that the political genie of democracy has been let out of the bottle. The Kenyan people are getting used to the democratic form of expression and they are likely to demand compliance. As Kimani argues, “the overwhelming sense is that politicians must fight to convince us of their case.” The people have now moreover tasted the sweetness of victory in the face of the ruling powers and are likely to want more. This is a new and very healthy reality that has been added to the game of Kenyan politics – and the old guard of Kenyan politics better watch their backs!

(c) Robert Egnell