Winter is quickly approaching and officially starts on December 1st. It seems that after last year's significant disruption, which many believe wasn't accurately forecast, many of the major weather forecasters including the UK Met Office have decided to "no longer issue long-range forecasts for the general public".
One thing is certain, after last year's winter snows that brought large swaths of the country to a complete standstill, many across the UK are a little nervous of what this year's winter has in store.
With stories of local authorities stockpiling salt and grit reserves, it does raise the question of are the powers-that-be just being careful to avoid the shortages that were experienced last year or are weather models for the coming months predicting a return to freezing temperatures and snowbound towns and villages?
The 2009 / 2010 winter period was the coldest for a decade. One of the most decisive anomalies was the North Atlantic Oscillation, which has been negative for a record breaking 13 months. The previous record of 9 consecutive months was back in 1968 into 1969 which was also a very cold and snowy winter.
Other factors that can affect the weather on a global level are volcanoes, of which there seems to have been a fair few recently. It was thought that only massive eruptions would have an affect on a worldwide scale but many believe that lots of smaller eruptions could also produce a cooling affect. Volcanic eruptions can throw up thousands of tonnes of dust particles that can remain suspended in the air for months, blocking out some of the Sun's energy and depositing cooling sulphur dioxide at higher altitudes.
As stories of unusual bird migrations and bee behaviour are reported, are we truly heading for another harsh winter on the scale of last year or worse? As always, the great British weather has a unique unpredictability and a habit of doing its own thing, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
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