2024-04-22 17:59
The big premise of the commission lawsuit against the national association of realtors is that high commission fees were one of the leading drivers of real estate prices. How true is… Read More
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2024-04-10 18:50
As suspected the March consumer price index came in hotter than expected which should be no surprise to anyone buying groceries, going out to eat, or traveling, everything is considerably m… Read More
2024-04-08 16:29
According to everything I’ve read, the economy is humming along. Economic growth is good, the labor market is healthy, and a soft landing is all but inevitable. At t… Read More
2024-04-01 19:44
The market currently has a fixation on interest rates. Senators are now jumping on the bandwagon pushing the federal reserve to “immediately” cut rates to help the… Read More
2024-03-25 19:39
Foreclosures are surging in a risky corner of commercial real-estate finance, offering one of the most profound signs yet that turmoil in the commercial property market is just beginning.&n&helli…Read More
2024-03-18 18:09
Big changes to how real estate has been bought and sold are scheduled for July. Why is this settlement the most groundbreaking change in real estate since the internet. What is in the… Read More
2024-03-11 17:04
When I was writing this article rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists are predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market… Read More
2024-03-04 20:50
It is crazy how far technologically we have come, but at the same time how fragile our infrastructure is. On of the largest cities in Atlanta (Fulton County) recently had a cyb… Read More
2024-02-26 20:51
There is a theory that locked in low mortgage rates will force owners to stay in their houses. This has led to a huge shortage of inventory throughout the country. Why is the &l&helli…Read More
2024-02-19 21:13
We have heard a ton of good news recently regarding inflation. Inflation has come down dramatically from its peak and the market is pricing in almost a 100% probability of an elusive… Read More
2024-02-12 19:57
Soft Landing base case, impact on real estate Every realtor newsletter I have received predicts an increase in sales and a great real estate market is 2024 due to lower mortgage rates. &helli…Read More
2024-02-05 20:09
Is there a new subprime crisis lurking? 10 years ago nightly rentals were a novel concept, fast forward to 2024 and the number of nightly rentals have surged 40%. What does thi… Read More
2024-01-29 17:57
Anytime you turn on the news you hear about high house prices and that the culprit is that supply has not kept up with demand. Is supply really the main culprit of housin… Read More
2024-01-22 20:29
It is interesting that the market continues to focus on interest rates and employment as the barometer for the economy while totally ignoring one metric. As a lender I just did… Read More
2024-01-15 21:38
The market keeps predicting a goldilocks scenario with 100% certainty where inflation falls without much if any impact on residential real estate. The “soft landin… Read More
2024-01-08 21:21
There has been a ton of talk regarding the lawsuits against the National Association of realtors, but from a practical perspective what does this mean for the market? Will buyer&rsqu&helli…Read More
2024-01-01 20:21
Although the graph above looks like an old Atari game, it is the Federal reserve dot plot which shows a profound shift. Ironically, just a few weeks ago the Federal Reserve was… Read More
2023-12-25 16:41
Before getting into my predictions, the chart above is indicative of the mixed signals in the economy. Prices are rising on cardboard due to increased consumer demand. How is demand for car… Read More
2023-12-18 20:26
What do the increased conforming loan limits mean for real estate? The federal government (aka you the taxpayer) now backs mortgages up to 1.15m. The maximum size of home-mortgage loans eli… Read More
2023-12-11 17:24
In a WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates It has been quite a ride for mortgage rates over the last two years. A… Read More
2023-11-27 21:06
What does the recent CPI fall mean for mortgage rates and real estate prices? A broad slowdown in inflation continued in October, likely ending the Federal Reserve&rsquo&helli…Read More
2023-11-20 21:15
I wanted to wish you and your families a very Happy Thanksgiving. I have enjoyed working with each of you and your clients over the past year and look forward to working together in t… Read More
2023-11-13 21:33
Fed raises rates 2200% The floor on housing prices drops The real estate party cannot go on forever. We are in a goldilocks scenario where prices are staying high even in the face of… Read More
2023-11-06 21:29
A federal jury on Tuesday found the National Association of Realtors and large residential brokerages liable for about $1.8 billion in damages after determining they conspired to keep commi… Read More
2023-10-30 20:07
Housing industry urges Fed to stop raising rates, does it even matter? Top real estate and banking officials are calling on the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates as the industr… Read More
2023-10-23 20:33
The economists forecasting the jobs data missed big time, with the recent jobs report almost double their predictions. Why is job growth still surging while interest rates hit 20 year… Read More
2023-10-16 21:02
In the past recessions, especially in 2008, just prior to the crash we saw a big pull back in luxury purchases. This was an early indicator of huge drops in real estate prices. … Read More
2023-10-09 19:46
Earlier in the year most economists and myself predicted a recession by now, but the cards have changed with most now predicting the opposite, a soft landing. What is a soft landing?… Read More
2023-10-02 20:55
After the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, a study on the fragility of the U.S. banking system found that 186 more banks are at risk of failure even if only… Read More
2023-09-25 12:30
As part of a debt-ceiling agreement forged by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, monthly student loan bills will resume September first. What does the restarting of… Read More
2023-09-18 20:59
For years interest rates were the number one indicator for real estate prices. In this cycle interest rates have more than doubled yet real estate prices have barely budged. If… Read More
2023-09-11 21:01
I continue to hear discussions about the huge plunge in office values while little attention has been given to other commercial property sectors like apartments. Apartment buildings… Read More
2023-09-04 17:42
It was already difficult for businesses and households to borrow money earlier this year — but after the collapse of three US regional banks and a cascade of rate hikes by the Federal… Read More
2023-08-28 20:49
In almost every real estate advertisement I receive, there is a common theme that prospective buyers should not focus on the rate as they will be able to refinance relatively soon at a much… Read More
2023-08-21 14:38
Like most, I have been surprised at the recent upward movement in prices. Did we just experience the shortest housing cycle ever? Are housing prices going to continue their rece… Read More
2023-08-14 14:28
Both the stock and bond markets are partying like its 99 again. Fannie Mae, the largest buyer of US mortgages, is not buying into the theory that a soft landing is the base case for the eco… Read More
2023-08-07 19:25
Major banks are facing one of the biggest regulatory overhauls since the financial crisis of 2008, setting up a major clash over the amount of capital that they have to set aside to weather… Read More
New Senate Bill, Predatory Investing, To Curb Corporate Investors From Buying Up Single-family Homes
2023-07-31 15:49
Lawmakers introduced a bill Tuesday aimed at curtailing investor activity in the housing market that they say is driving up home prices. The Stop Predatory Investing Act is target… Read More
2023-07-24 17:39
According to a recent Federal Reserve Report, fourteen million mortgages were refinanced during the COVID refinance boom, and these refinances will have effects on the mortgage market, real… Read More
2023-07-17 20:09
I always cringe when I see a press release that “regulators” have a solution! FHA has yet another new proposal that sounds great on the surface, but as typical misses some… Read More
2023-07-10 19:43
US labor productivity tumbled by 7.5% in the first quarter of 2023 – the largest decline in worker output per hour since 1947, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.&nb&helli…Read More
2023-07-03 19:31
Although the market rejoiced in the recent fed “skip”, as you dig into the numbers more the outcome is a lot less sanguine. Why does inflation continue running hotter than… Read More
2023-06-26 17:24
Big changes are ahead for automated appraisals. The government feels that automated models show bias in valuation so they have proposed a new rule that will radically alter appraisals… Read More
2023-06-19 19:19
Interesting times we are in. Consumers keep spending big on services like travel and eating out, but on the flip side Home Depot just reported its first drop since the pandemic… Read More
2023-06-12 19:12
Households added $148 billion in overall debt, bringing the total to $17.05 trillion, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday. Balances are n… Read More
2023-06-05 16:50
US commercial real estate prices fell in the first quarter for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in t… Read More
2023-05-29 15:57
A lot has changed since my year end update, four major banks have collapsed, and the market is now signaling a recession with interest rates beginning to fall. What does this mean for… Read More
2023-05-22 17:05
Although the spring real estate market has slowed drastically from the pandemic days, the bottom has not fallen out. Quite the opposite has occurred, in suburban markets and su… Read More
2023-05-15 19:05
The share of Americans who say they live paycheck-to-paycheck climbed last year, and most of the new arrivals in that category were among the country’s higher earners (greater… Read More
2023-05-08 18:00
No this is not a joke, I had to read the recent Fannie Mae press release multiple times to actually believe what I was reading. Who would have ever thought that someone with a high cr… Read More
2023-05-01 17:11
US bank lending contracted by the most on record in the last two weeks of March, indicating a tightening of credit conditions in the wake of several high-profile bank collapses. Why t… Read More
2023-04-24 16:49
Inflation continues to stick around with core CPI running near record highs. This will keep the federal reserve on a likely path to hike rates once again in May. What does… Read More
2023-04-17 20:22
Presidential nominee Biden has rolled out his proposed tax plan with two major pillars that will impact real estate: 1) Elimination of the 1031 exchange provision 2) elimination of lo… Read More
2023-04-10 16:42
As the banking crisis unfolds, the media continues to focus on depositors and shareholders. Although both are important, there is an even bigger issue that is not being discussed.&nbs&helli…Read More
2023-04-03 19:12
Last week, the president announced an action that will save homebuyers and homeowners with new FHA-insured mortgages $1500 per year (assuming a 500k home), lowering housing costs for an est… Read More
2023-03-27 18:35
As a private lender, my call volume and closings the first quarter have been off the charts as borrowers fall out of more conventional products. This trend is now playing out wi… Read More
2023-03-21 18:45
We are looking for a full-time associate in our fast-paced commercial lending office in Sandy Springs, Georgia; this is not a remote position. This position will focus on loan servici… Read More
2023-03-20 12:56
Wow, a few weeks ago rates had fallen from a peak of over 7% to almost 6%. Unfortunately the party was short lived as rates are now heading much higher. The recent jobs report was ano… Read More
2023-03-15 17:12
We are looking for a full-time associate in our fast-paced commercial lending office in Sandy Springs, Georgia; this is not a remote position. This position will focus on loan… Read More
2023-03-13 12:50
Over 48 hours two banks failed for very different reasons. There is a saying in banking that when rates rise and easy money runs out, we will find the skeletons that have been lurkin… Read More
2023-03-06 19:45
In only a couple of months, the world has changed substantially. In December, inflation was supposedly decreasing rapidly and the odds of a soft landing were non existent. Fast… Read More
2023-02-27 18:42
Beginning in March of 2023, Freddie Mac, the largest buyer of mortgages is drastically changing the seasoning requirements for any loans it purchases which basically means any new conventio… Read More
2023-02-20 18:27
Purchasing power from paychecks fell 2.9% for middle-income households in 2022 compared with 2021, while rising 1.5% for the bottom fifth of households and 1.1% for the top, according to th… Read More
2023-02-13 20:29
The market currently has a fixation on interest rates. Essentially whatever interest rates do the market reacts accordingly. For example if rates rise, sales fall and vic… Read More
2023-02-06 20:10
I rarely say that Covid caused radical changes in behavior but the commercial property sector is bucking this trend. This is not because of return to office or lack thereof, but lever… Read More
2023-01-30 17:38
It is no secret that rent has skyrocketed throughout the country. Nationally rental growth peaked at 17.45% year over year in March of 2022. Some markets like NY and FL have exc… Read More
2023-01-23 21:18
I’m usually skeptical that lawsuits will totally alter an industry but the recent suit against the National Association of realtors, various multiple listing services, and many… Read More
2023-01-16 18:27
Data from AirDNA, a short-term rental analytics firm, show as of October 2022, the number of future nights booked—a real-time indicator of the health of the short-term rental industry… Read More
2023-01-09 17:44
It has been a wild ride in the treasury market. Rates spiked to 7.5%, but recently have plummeted back to below 6%? Now they are rising again. What does this mean for real estat… Read More
2023-01-02 20:25
US commercial real estate prices have plunged 13% from a peak this year, the biggest drop since the global financial crisis of 2008. What is causing the decline in commercial property… Read More
2022-12-26 20:01
I hope everyone is having a happy holiday season. Before getting into my predictions for next year, there are three crucial factors to discuss that will shape the real estate market i… Read More
2022-12-19 19:56
There is definitely allot of doom and gloom heading into 23 with interest rates double their lows, inventory increasing, and prices coming off their highs. In every cycle there will be winn… Read More
2022-12-12 17:40
In 2023, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expects home sales to decline by 7%, while the national median home price will increase by 1% in his recent 2023 market update. On the flip s… Read More
2022-12-05 17:21
Since Covid it seems like traditional patterns have been broken. I hear time and time again that X or Y is different and there have been fundamental changes. Is this true, is everythi… Read More
2022-11-28 19:09
We are in a new paradigm for real estate. With talks of a recession getting louder, what does this mean for real estate. In 2008/9 real estate was radically different than today… Read More
2022-11-21 18:47
The federal reserve bank of NY recently published a report showing consumer debt jumping to the highest levels ever recorded with every category growing from mortgages, autos, credit cards… Read More
2022-11-14 20:29
The prevailing theory is that this real estate cycle will be considerably better than others as so many people locked in rock bottom rates which will serve as “golden handcuffs”… Read More
2022-11-07 21:42
The federal government is about to back mortgages over one million for the first time. The maximum size of home-mortgage loans eligible for backing by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is expected… Read More
2022-10-31 19:29
There is pretty much a universal theme that there will be a recession in the future. It is like saying that it might rain sometime in the next month. It doesn’t help you m… Read More
2022-10-24 19:41
“Our model really works in upmarkets, it’s going to work in flat markets, it’s going to work in downmarkets,” chief financial officer Carrie Wheeler told analysts ju… Read More
2022-10-17 19:35
A few weeks ago, the big news was 6% rates and now everyone suddenly woke up with stocks crashing and yields soaring to new highs and rates jumping again. What does this mean in the s… Read More
2022-10-10 18:57
It will get much worse for the housing market and the mortgage industry. That’s the takeaway from a group of economists at Fannie Mae who slashed their forecast for 2022 home sales th… Read More
2022-10-03 19:16
Home values slipped for the second consecutive month as mortgage costs continue to sideline buyers. From June through August, prices usually decline about 2%, but this year the… Read More
2022-09-26 19:39
First, the pic above was the leading picture for a listing I looked at. I guess they were stressing the work from home conveniences in the office😊 Unfortunately this could lea… Read More
2022-09-13 18:49
Once again, the recent CPI report came in much higher than expected. Why did the market drastically miss this prediction? I’m not even an economist and figured out months… Read More
2022-09-12 15:23
Wow, what a difference a few months makes. Earlier in the summer, basically any property with 4 walls had multiple offers and prices were on a tear. Fast Forward a few months an… Read More
2022-09-05 20:19
The National Association of Realtors predicts sales to rise again throughout 2023. At the same time, demand for mortgage refinances are down 83% from a year ago. Applications for a lo… Read More
2022-08-25 19:27
As of the writing of this article, President’s Biden’s plan is to forgive 10k in student loan per each borrower and further extend the payment pause until year end. How wi… Read More
2022-08-22 17:49
When I looked over my shoulder and saw these two fellows staring at me, it made me wonder if they were trying to tell me something. I definitely got the hint! I don’t thin… Read More
2022-08-15 17:01
The federal reserve did an analysis of what has led to the surge in housing prices and has a conclusive answer; the driver of high prices is not that we don’t have enough houses as th… Read More
2022-08-08 18:54
If you haven’t gotten a haircut in a while, you are in for a surprise. Haircut prices like many other services in the economy are experiencing large increases. What does t… Read More
2022-08-01 16:35
What a week it has been in the economy. The federal reserve is still struggling to contain inflation and as a result increased the fed funds rate .75%. After the announcement st… Read More
2022-07-25 15:18
There has been an unexpectedly sharp downturn in demand to truck everything from food to furniture since the beginning of March and rates in the overheated segment that deals in on-demand t… Read More
2022-07-18 15:37
The federal government in their quest to shore up the mortgage market in 2008 has created some new risks to the housing market. Non bank lenders now make up 74% of the origination vol… Read More
2022-07-11 17:18
“A reckoning is due. Home prices and rents can’t separate as significantly as they have from their long-term fundamental trends without major issues arising in the marketplace… Read More
2022-07-04 16:14
Commercial real estate is showing the first signs of cooling in more than a year, disrupted by rising interest rates that are already causing some deals to collapse. What is causing t… Read More
2022-06-27 20:22
Most economists are convinced that there will be a recession soon, although nobody knows whether it is 3,6 or 12 months away. The good news is that this recession should not be a repe… Read More
2022-06-15 19:10
All I can say is wow. On a dime, the real estate market changed overnight. I was predicting mortgage rates around 6% over the course of the year. The change happened in one day with r… Read More
2022-06-13 17:13
While in other countries real estate is slowing, home price growth in 20 US cities picked up for the fourth straight month with Tampa, Florida, showing the biggest gains. March’… Read More
2022-06-06 14:07
One of the world’s bubbliest housing markets is tilting from sellers to buyers with dizzying speed. Canadian home prices fell for the first time in two years as a rapid… Read More
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