M. King Hubbert had it easy. He was proven right in just 15 years. As a geologist for Shell Oil, Hubbert predicted in the mid-1950’s that US lower-48 oil production would peak right around 1970. And he was right. Maybe not overly popular, but right. Now here we all are, trying to figure out when global oil production will (or did) peak. It’s a much tougher job. Like I said, Hubbert had it easy.

I often equate peak oil, and the crash that is predicted to follow, as being rather like a glacier that is very slowly crawling toward a small Alpine village. The glacier is moving down the mountain one meter a year. The village isn’t moving at all. So it’ll get there, it’ll just take time. Be patient. The glacier is still moving.

When people first read about peak oil, they get all excited and panicky, and then they wonder why everyone else isn’t all excited and panicky. Yeah, well, it’s not like that glacier has picked up any speed. And it never helps when there’s been a long history of mis-predictions when it comes to peak oil. Unlike predicting the peak of US oil production, there are simply too many variables when it comes to predicting the peak of global oil. And too many lies.

It’s also too easy to look at the price of oil and see that as an indication of supply - and of the peak. If the price of oil drops, too many people see that as proof that peak oil is still far in our future. I see low oil prices as a factor that may hasten the peak as well as the fall predicted to follow that peak. But the price of oil is a lousy indicator of overall supply.

If the price of oil drops, oil products (like gasoline) get more affordable. People drive more, use more gasoline, and save less oil for later. As the price of oil drops, the incentive to search for more oil drops, as does the urgency to develop alternatives to that oil. It just ain’t worth it while oil is cheap, and it’s tough to do when it’s expensive.

In a perfect world, we would not be watching the price of oil at all, but we would have access to accurate global oil production data on a timely basis. In a perfect world, we would be able to monitor the world-wide flow of oil, to track the ebb and flow, and we would be able to see obvious trends in the supply of that oil all over the globe. In a perfect world, Snooki would not be a household name, entertainment sensation and media darling. Alas, we do not live in a perfect world.

And when the wind blows down off that mountain, the glacier chills the town. It’s that close.