| Ward 2 City Council race results. (Click to enlarge or print.) |
Could Tuesday's primary elections outcome have been avoided?
That will probably be a subject for debate for a long time to come.
But I think anyone can agree that if the elections had been held in January of 2018, the outcome would have been wildly different. Chairman Mapp undoubtedly would have swept the field, following up the success of his election to a second term.
I did not hear him say it, but I am told by a reliable source that during the fall 2018 campaign season, Chairman Mapp said, "I am the new Jerry Green."
That may be true, and in senses that the Chairman may regret.
Today, I thought to map out the anti-Mapp sentiment displayed by voters in the 2019 Primary.
Is this a perfect indication of how he is doing? No, but there is none better at this point in time.
We must bear in mind that the campaign season just past was intended to be an all-out assault on his leadership of the Democratic Party in Plainfield. It was an attempt to "kill the king".
It did not achieve its objective, but there is much to be learned from the experience.
ABOUT THE MAPS
I chose to color individual maps of each ward in both the Council and PDCC races. (The numbers used to calculate the maps are the unofficial results from election night; there was only one instance of a changed outcome, noted below.)
Anti-Mapp candidates (whether People First or Democrats United, but not Bridget Rivers -- who ran solo but didn't score any serious hits) are indicated in BLUE highlighting.
Mapp candidates are indicated in GREEN highlighting.
A district which is colored SOLID indicates that the candidate took the majority of votes in that district.
A district shaded with alternating BARS of color and white, indicates that the winner took LESS THAN 55% of the vote.
Contested districts are outlined in BLUE.
Districts where Mapp forces won (with more than 55% of the votes) are left without any highlight color.
The intent is to give some visual indication of the strength of anti-Mapp sentiment throughout the city, district by district.
(Readers will note some little inconsistencies. I refined things as I went along; however, each sheet has indicators of what the shadings mean for that sheet. Maybe next time it will be better.)
I will take up the Council races first, then the PDCC.
CITY COUNCIL RACES
WARD 2
Incumbent Cory Storch was bested by McKenna, 628 to 461 (58 - 42%).
The map (at the top of today's post) shows McKenna took 7 of the 11 districts (Storch took only 1, 4, 7, and 11).
Not only did McKenna take them, his lead was solid in 6 of the 7 districts, with only one (2) offering any resistance.
Storch campaigned hard and has a commendable record on the Council, and even though he is a (sometimes critical) supporter of Mayor and Chairman Mapp, he was defeated by a wave of anti-Mapp sentiment on which McKenna based his campaign.
| Wards 1 and 4 Council race results. (Click to enlarge or print.) |
WARDS 1/4 AT-LARGE
In the event, Rivers did not gain enough votes to take any district in the two wards, so the only colors indicate either Goode or Briggs Jones.
Goode failed to win in the 4th Ward (where he resides), falling to Briggs Jones: 190 - 215 - 83.
Briggs Jones took Districts 1 and 5 (with a commanding lead in 1).
Goode won Districts 2, 3, and 4 -- but never with more than 55% of the vote, indicating considerable anti-Mapp sentiment.
What pulled Goode's fat out of the fire was his performance in Ward 1.
Here he took four districts solidly (3, 6, 7, and 8). But, while he won in the remaining four districts (1, 2, 4, and 5), his margin never exceeded 55%, showing strong anti-Mapp sentiments among the voters.
Goode carried the First Ward: 388 - 219 - 89.
THE PDCC (CITY COMMITTEE) RACES
| Ward 1 PDCC results. (Click to enlarge or print.) |
WARD 1
Mapp candidates won all 8 committee seats (with the lowest percentage of support being 61% -- quite respectable).
| Ward 2 PDCC results. (Click to enlarge or print.) |
WARD 2
Anti-Mapp forces took Districts 3, 6, 8 and 9, splitting District 10 (male for Mapp, female anti-Mapp).
Mapp won Districts 2 and 7 with less than 55% of the votes.
In Districts 1, 4, 5, and 11, Mapp won outright. Mapp had successfully challenged the male and female candidates in 2-5
| Ward 3 PDCC results. (Click to enlarge or print.) |
WARD 3
Anti-Mapp forces took two districts completely (1 and 5).
Mapp was successful in challenging opponents in Districts 3-4 and 3-9 (his own). The remaining Districts (2, 3, 6, 7, 8, and 10) were contested.
While Mapp won them, his margin in two of those Districts (6 and 7) was less than 55%, showing strong anti-Mapp sentiment in the very heart of the ward.
| Ward 4 PDCC results. (Click to enlarge or print.) |
WARD 4
Mapp successfully challenged Dems United candidates in three districts (1, 3, and 4). However, Bridget Rivers and her husband ran in District 3, though they garnered no more than 37% of support.
Mapp took the entire ward, with his lowest rating being 57%, which does indicate some strength by the anti-Mapp candidate (Claudette Lovely-Brown).
THE OVERALL PICTURE
Putting it all together, Mapp retains control of the PDCC, but with sizeable anti-Mapp sentiment throughout the city, but especially in Wards 2 and 3.
Startlingly, this map strongly resembles the results the New Dems obtained in their first major foray against Assemblyman Jerry Green more than fifteen years ago.
They quickly learned that just being "anti" the Assemblyman might earn them a steady base of around 30%, but it was no formula for long-range success.
The New Dems did take over the PDCC early on, but Al McWilliams did not appreciate the importance of the victory and subsequently lost the committee, never to regain it in his lifetime.
The anti-Mapp forces, on this their first outing, find themselves in the position of the dog that caught the bus.
Now what?
Chairman Mapp, unfortunately, finds himself in the position of the late Assemblyman Jerry Green, with a considerable "anti" sentiment in what should be his strongest bases.
Totally ironic.
-- Dan Damon [follow]
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