Scroll to the bottom of the post to see a recap of all the Braves most recent moves…

This isn’t meant to be a history lesson about the below average 2014 Atlanta Braves; it is an analysis on whether they made the correct decisions. I’m going to approach this in two ways; the success of the players they sent away plus their future control, age etc., and the pedigree and predicted success of the players that they acquired in exchange.

World Series Contender 2014?

In early 2014 when the Braves started signing their core players through their arbitration years with long-term extensions, many fans (like myself) and analysts applauded them for rewarding their young stars’ performances, prior to their prime years. Those same people also agreed that it was smart to lock up players such as Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, Craig Kimbrel and Julio Teheran because over time the market would inflate, making their deals relative bargains in future years. Coupled with the infusion of some proven, albeit young veterans like Justin Upton and his brother Melvin, many believed the team had put together a nucleus of players that could rival the 1990’s Braves in terms of dominance of the NL East.

Through the first 4 months of the 2014 season the Braves looked like the team that was expected to win the division, as they were in first place of the NL East for almost the entirety of those 4 months. Then July 20^th hit, the Braves lost control of first place, and they never regained it.  They were 54-44 at the time, but crumbled, going 25-39 the rest of the way to finish the season at 79-83, a far cry from what had been expected of them. Shortly after the season GM Frank Wren was relieved of his duties and John Hart was named interim GM. He had a choice; keep the core together and build around them with a strong chance to compete in 2015, or tear it all down and rebuild.

Change of “Hart”

The tear down started when Atlanta agreed to trade Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to the Cardinals for Shelby Miller. From the perspective of the Braves you immediately understand this trade; they decided that they were going to aggressively rebuild to cut salary. Heyward was entering the final year of his deal and would prove to be costly when he ultimately reached free agency after the 2015 season, signing an 8-year, $184 million contract with the Cubs. In return, Atlanta received a talented 24-year old former first round pick in Miller who they could control via arbitration through the 2018 season. They got another former first round pick, Tyrell Jenkins, who many felt was very talented, but had an injury history. Today he ranks as Atlanta’s 8^th best prospect and many believe he can be a future frontline starter. The first trade of the rebuild sways in favor of the Braves because they knew that they would not want to or be able to retain Heyward.  They got young, talented, controllable pitching by trading him, which is coveted in today’s league.

Less than a month later, and a little over a year after trading for him, the Braves received their own package of prospects by sending Justin Upton to the Padres. Again, because of an expiring contract there was no reason for the rebuilding Braves to keep Upton. Headlining the package to Atlanta was pitcher Max Fried, a former top 10 pick out of high school who garnered comparisons to Kershaw. Injuries have held him back, causing him to miss the entire 2015 season, but the good news is Fried is still only 22 and has time on his side. If he can stay healthy and even become half of what Kershaw is, then the Braves win alone based off of that. They also acquired second baseman Jace Peterson who played in a whopping 152 games as a rookie. He produced a 1.1 WAR, below league average, but he is under team control until 2020 and showed flashes of major league talent. Outfielders Dustin Peterson and Mallex Smith are both on the Braves top 20 prospect lists as well.  Smith is held in higher regard because of his elite speed and many view him as the Braves’ centerfielder of the future; if he can fulfill those projections it would be a huge win for the Braves. While this trade is not as clear-cut as to who the winner is, the Braves have the edge because all these players are under team control for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, Upton was marginally productive on an underachieving Padres team in 2015, and elected not to resign with them, opting to sign with Detroit instead.

Opening Day 2015

On the eve of Opening Day 2015 the Braves shocked the world again by dealing elite closer Craig Kimbrel to the Padres. Melvin Upton and Carlos Quentin/Cameron Maybin were all involved in this deal, but they were merely to offset salary. This deal revolved around Kimbrel, although his 2015 season was the worst of his pro career so far. He failed to record 40 saves for the first time (39) and his ERA was above 2.00 for the first time since his rookie year (2.58). No, he didn’t really have a bad season at all. Although he wasn’t the same Kimbrel we were used to, he was still brilliant on an underachieving Padres team. Matt Wisler was the crown jewel of the trade for Atlanta, and he got to see action in 2015 with the Braves. He was up and down during the 109 innings he pitched, but he finished 8-8 on the year and he managed a 2.34 ERA over his final 5 starts of the season, showing what he can do once he gets acclimated to the show. Getting a first round pick was nice, but it is too early to say if Austin Riley will have success. He played well in his first full pro season, playing 60 games between two levels hitting .304 and driving in 40 runs. If he can fully reach his potential it will help the Braves out here, because in my opinion they got the short end of the stick. Sure, you can say they set the reliever market for what it is, but if they had waited a couple extra months they could have gotten much more for Kimbrel. Ken Giles and Chapman netted each of their teams packages far greater than what the Braves received for Kimbrel in early 2015.

This next trade isn’t really much to talk about. The Braves robbed Arizona. It’s the first time and definitely isn’t the last time John Hart and new GM John Coppolella will get the better of Dave Stewart. Yes, I understand that Arizona wanted to clear up cap space for their courting of Zack Greinke, but 5 months earlier the Diamondbacks spent $16 million on Yoan Lopez, a pitching prospect with much less upside than Touki Toussaint the 16^th pick in the 2014 draft.  It doesn’t make sense for them to sell Toussaint for $10 million. Great work by the Braves, though buying a top pitching prospect considering they have plenty of cap space and the buyout of Arroyo will only hurt them for the 2016 season.

10 days later the Braves left me scratching my head, when they packaged well-regarded prospect Jose Peraza, talented and cheap pitcher Alex Wood, Luis Avilan (an effective pitcher when healthy), and then continued to eat salary for both Bronson Arroyo and Jim Johnson. All in exchange for Zachary Bird, who isn’t projected to be much more than a bottom of the rotation starter AND an unproven 30-year-old, whose contract is much larger than Hector Olivera’s. Absolutely 0% of this deal makes logical sense based on the direction that the Braves are heading toward and probably never will.

Big Deals in Late 2015

The most recent trades of the Braves roster purge have been gold-glove shortstop Andrelton Simmons and Shelby Miller. Simmons is an elite defender, but has left a lot to be desired with his bat since he posted 17 homeruns to go with 59 RBI in 2013. Somehow the Braves managed to sell his defense in exchange for Sean Newcomb who is a personal favorite of mine. He has legitimate front of the rotation stuff with a great 6’5”, 245 lb. frame that can carry him through the grind of 200 innings a year for a long time. Also part of the deal was 23-year-old hurler Chris Ellis who slots in around #11 on most Braves top prospect lists. He also has great frame, but with a less impressive arsenal than Newcomb.  He could stick as a back of the rotation type starter, or slide into the bullpen where his cutter would give hitters fits. The verdict here is that the Angels get a nice piece short-term. The Angels only upgraded defensively by shipping Erick Aybar as he was a much more productive player offensively than Simmons in 2015. Coupled with the additions of Newcomb and Ellis, the Braves have again done a great job acquiring talent.

The Braves would fleece the D-Backs a second time; the Shelby Miller deal. Yes, Shelby is under team control until 2018, but the package he brought in was far greater than any that I could have dreamed. Dansby Swanson, the first overall pick in last year’s draft, a player that many believe could be in the majors this year was the centerpiece of the deal. He is a great leader and a hard worker that plays a premium position at a high level and has an approach at the plate that will make him a top of the order hitter for years to come. On top of Swanson, they acquired Aaron Blair an electric pitcher, with a fastball that tops out at 95 mph; he also is on the fast track to the big leagues and could debut sometime in early 2016. Finally, there is Ender Inciarte, a 25-year-old outfielder who carries a shiny .292 average in his two years in the league. Despite never being a highly regarded prospect during his time in the minors he is only getting better with time. Inciarte can play all three outfield positions at a high level and outside of Freeman may be the most productive Brave this year, after posting a 3.3 WAR last year. Rumors swirled after the trade that Inciarte alone could have fetched the Diamondbacks a pitcher comparable to Shelby Miller.  The Braves may look to trade him at some point this season, which would only increase their haul for Shelby Miller. This one in my eyes is an easy win for the Braves based on quality and quantity of the players received.

Closing Thoughts

This was a lot of opinion on players and some hypotheticals here, but after really diving into the decisions that the Braves made on trading away their big name players it seems apparent they made the right decision building for the future. They completed a one hundred and eighty-degree turn from the direction they were going, but they would have not been able to resign all of the players that they traded away, nor would their value be as great as the prospects they received in return. Many of the players they traded were due for regression like the Upton brothers. Others like Gattis, for who they acquired some solid pitching depth, didn’t have any purpose on a rebuilding team. It has been floated recently that the Braves are willing to listen on Julio Teheran and Freeman, the remaining two players from their hyped core from 2014. It may be in their best interest to entertain offers for Teheran as we have seen what young, cost-controlled pitchers can bring in return.  They should wait until he can re-establish himself as the ace the most thought he was turning into, or at least until he builds his value back up to a slightly more respectable level. As for Freeman, he should probably stay put for now.  He is controlled below current market value for first baseman until 2021 so there shouldn’t be a rush to get rid of him.  He is only 26 and is a very productive player. That being said, if or when they get an offer they can’t refuse the Braves need to pull the trigger and finish what they started.

Braves Transactions…

-Jackson

Stats taken from Baseball Reference and Fangraphs

Contracts taken from Spotrac

Photo taken from Flickr Creative Commons. LWYang’s photo can be seen here.

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